Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Earthquake Prediction for June 2017

Hi
Here are the probable dates for 6+ quakes
1)4th......6.4
2)10th......6.6
3)17th......6.5
4)20th.....6.4
5)24th......6.8
Window period is +or - one day
It implies that, atleat 50% of 6+ quakes in June should be window period

Amit

17 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, using half the days means you should get half the quakes.

You came up short last month, only getting 4 of 9 quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes,but only 4 prediction last month.It means 12/31 of the total quakes should be window period.which comes roughly to 40%
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, to be more precise, 12/31 = .38+ and 4.9 = .44+ so you were slightly better than chance.

It's still not good enough to matter.

In fact 100% would still be chance until you could do that well most of the time.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
By that standerd, weather forecast is also a chance. It is never close to 100%
Can weather dept predict,exact amount of rainfall in mm,at exact location,and the date predicted?
Why are we wearing so much tax payers money after it. We can predict,rain just by tossing the coin
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

A debatable point for sure but a bad comparison.

We know a lot about the weather, what causes it, what conditions are currently present, how is it likely to develop, yet we still can't predict it as precisely as we would like.

Compare that to quakes where we have insufficient information to even begin to predict them.

What hope do you have to succeed with even less information?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It necessarily means,we do not know,the exact reason for the same.
Supposing, we know that most quakes occurs due to plate movements and sliding of one plate over another.
Now what we know is
1)Fault line
2) length of fault line
3) Geological structure of rocks in both plates
3) movement of plate per annum
4) strength of Rockin' both boundaries ie at what stress and strain that will break or give way.If not known both samples can be tested in laboratory and rupture stress in kgf/square cm can be calculated.
5)Last known quake on that plate boundry is known
6)Years lapsed since last quake known
7)Plate movement during those lapsed years known
8) stress built upon plate country can be calculated
Now if this calculated stress crosses the laboratory test stress limits quake will have to occur
So simple
Where is the unknown parameters and what is the problem in prediction
Think out of box
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The critical ones are not known at depth. Faults are not simple structures so the calculations you mention do not really work.

Otherwise we'd be predicting them already.

BTW, quake today, just missed your window.

0/1 so far

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
6.0 quake today at Balleny Island region.A hit prediction
Amit

AMIT said...

Rain interpret the India Pak match in UK ,to day.
I have some questions
1)Why to schedule match at places where rain is expected.?
2)Whether forecast,which is spending millions of Dollars,in research ,and super computers, does not know actually anything.
3)Why are they playing with money and time of people going for the match

So we are far advanced in science and technology. I wonder how do they know that there is water on Mars ,or a star a million light years away, when they are not aware of water in the clouds over their head.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quakes on 2nd and 3rd so

Current score 1/2 quakes. 1/1 predictions.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quakes on 2nd and 3rd so

Current score 1/2 quakes. 1/1 predictions.

Roger

Unknown said...

4.1 Quake today 10/06 in Christchurch, NZ

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

1/2 predictions, 1/2 quakes

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today, a miss.

Close but no cigar.

1/2 predictions, 1/3 quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
6.1 quake at Fiji on 17th,a date hit prediction.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, quake today was a hit.

That makes 2/5 quakes and 2/3 predictions correct.

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today, a miss.

So it's 2/6 quakes, 2/4 predictions.

Still chance.

Roger