Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, November 14, 2010

Yemen Earthquakes

hi
Recent Yemen earthquakes are unusual. Last two days have witnessed series of morderate quakes,and are still counting.
In such,unusual swarm, we need to be cautious till November 2010 end.
16th,22nd ,29/30th November 2010(+ or - 24 Hrs)
Amit

12 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It takes no skill to predict another quake in the middle of a swarm.

And gets no credit either.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes sir.
Only thing ,which is required to be noted is(which you will also agree ) that, I am repeating the dates which were already given.And it is not new prediction or added dates.
regards
Amit

sdelapp said...

Hmmm,
didn't say so before, but I thought it would be a little bit quiet this week, and , except for the mini swarm, it was... I think next round of significant action, 6.0+ , will be with the full moon, 21st thru the 24th, then quiet again until the 30th, something a little stronger, 6.3+, methinks.

AMIT said...

steve
Yes. You are right. I also ,think so. I wish, the dates ,till 29/30th pass on quietly.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Steve, Amit;

You two are going about this all wrong.

You start with an idea and begin making predictions to see if it works.

This is backwards.

You should start with an idea and test it on past quakes to see if it would have worked. Then and only then do you make predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have studied several major quakes of past.In fact , I have been doing such studies since last 16 years.
Several hundred major quakes have been studied.
To the best of my knowledge, most of them satisfies the basic rules of theory.
Few of them (8+) which satisfies ,one of the criteria (full Moon or New Moon + or - 24 Hrs ) are as follows
1)2306.2001----8.4
2)25.09.2003----8.3
3)26.12.2007---9.1
4)28.03.2005----8.6
5)12.09.2007----8.5
6)22.05.1960---9.5
I am aware that, as per your norms , these few examples are not enough to conclude. There are major quakes which are not on full Moon or New Moon
But, the theory is not all about Moon phases.
Moon is main trigger, aspects of Moon with Sun (including squaring) and aspects with planets changing the direction may cause the quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Be that as it may, your prediction record is not showing any acceptable degree of success.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Today's (21st November 2010 of Taiwan was 5.7 as per USGS ,but Taiwan seismology department put it as 6.1. also the depth stated by both are not matching I wonder ,how come ,with so much advancement in science ,such differences arise.
I also wonder ,how the point accuracy,is demanded from all those who predict


please see report below
--- ---- ---- ----
A 6.1 magnitude undersea earthquake struck off eastern Taiwan on Sunday, the island's Seismology Centre said, but there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties. The quake hit at 1231 GMT about 22 kilometres (14 miles) southeast of the eastern city of Hualien city and had a depth of 41
kilometres, the Centre said. No tsunami warning was issued.

The US Geological Survey put the quake's magnitude at 5.7. It said the epicentre was 50 kilometres (31 miles) deep.

--- ---- ----- -----
http://www.hindustantimes.com/6-1-magnitude-quake-strikes-off-Taiwan-Seismology-Centre/Article1-629249.aspx

regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm guessing here, but the Taiwan group probably had only local readings whereas the NEIC had global readings.

Makes a difference.

Roger

Anonymous said...

I agree with Roger, there is a serious lack of statistical work in all this handwaving prediction. I have started doing this. But I am shocked that AMIT has not done it already during the 16 years of studying this as he says. Where is the statistical work?
Remi

Clayton Elgin Strickland said...

I also have been kicking around the idea of earthquake prediction. Ten years ago while attending UAF I postulated that a earthquake season would become apparent when taking into consideration orbital velocity changes in the the earths orbit. IE solctice,s and equinox's and such as you give or take say 10 days either way. March 21 1964 9.2 hits Alaska, The san fran quakes (major that is) the indonesia quake and many others. obviously not all but a pattern does start to arise. take into count historical quakes, rock type and proxcimity to fault zones and perhaps we may be able to start pin pointing these things...

AMIT said...

clayton
Yes ,You are right. A lot of work is required to be done in this direction.
If ,we stick only to plate tectonic theory ,I doubt we can find an head way in predicting the quakes
regards
Amit