Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, November 01, 2015

Earthquake prediction for November 2015

hi
 Here are some of the probable dates for major quakes (6+)

1)3rd November....6.6

2)12th November...6.4

3)20th ...................6.3

4)25th ..................6.5

window period  + or - one day

Amit Dave

20 comments:

AMIT said...

Hi
Bali Airport closed as volcsnic eruption occurs .pl note the date and prediction date
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.3 quake today (november 4) at east Timor
watch the accuracy of prediction
Amit

Anonymous said...

Bhokam.............

AMIT said...

Hi
pl not two major quakes of 6.9 at chile to day ie 11th Nov and the accuracy of my prediction date ie 12thNov
Also pl check my cycle quake theory. The Afghnistan quake was on 26th of Oct. Pl not the days difference of 14 or 15 days and another big quake.Also notr today is New Moon day
Any co incidence or just by chance or a fluke?
How many times would you call such hits as flukes?
Wake up USGS......wake up seismologist ...
wakeup authorities
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Don't get too excited.

In the period from Nov 1 to Nov 11 there were 8 mag 6+ quakes.

3 of them were in 2 of your 4 predictions (so far)

So you're 2/4 predictions correct but only 3/8 quakes correct.

Time will tell.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Let any seismologist do this. Have you noticed cycle quake theory proof in Chile quake to day
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You have a short memory.

I have beaten you with my random predictions already.

My program showed there was no validity to the cycle theory

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Cycle quake theory is not limited for after shocks at the same location (in a radious of 50 or 100 kms)..It says the cycle dates have potential to induce major quakes any where.The location depends on the point where resulant pull is acting at that moment
The practical proofs shows something different that stats software out put
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Yet another quake of 7.0 (6.7) off coast of Japan on 13th Nov. ie in 1 day window period
Any doubts?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you can state exactly what you mean with your cycle theory I will test it according to your specifications.

Specifically, what determines a main quake and when will triggered quakes happen?

These ideas are easy to test.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
In nutshell,cycle quake theory states that
1) whenever a major quake of 7.5+( or even 7+) occurs ,chances of triggering 6+ quakes are more
a) just after 24 Hrs
b)on 7th /8th day
c)on 14th/15th day
and sometimes even on 29th /30th day
These cycle quake dates are potent and can induce quakes of 6+ anywhere (depending upon the location of triggering Moon/Sun or planet). However, chances of 6+ aftershocks within the radius of 100kms of main quake is much higher

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
pl note to days 6.1 quake at Indonesia ,as predicted. note date and magnitude accuracy in window period
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far, 3 of your 4 predictions are correct.

But you predicted only 5 of the 11 quakes in that time.

Your windows cover 12/30 days or 40% so you should get 4.4 hits by chance so your results are not all that good.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
pl look carefully at your first sentence
3 out of 4 are correct and the forth one is yet to come.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Please look at the third sentence.

That's the important part.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Let me explain.

Suppose your 4 predictions were equally spaced and each was a week long.

All 4 would be correct and all quakes would be captured, a perfect score!

But it's worthless. With 28 of 30 days covered the odds on success are nearly 1.0

Now in your case you got about as many hits as you should have - by chance.

Again, worthless.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I look at it this way.
out of 3 predicyions of 6+ quake with + or - one day window(UTC time),all are hit.ie 100%
What are the long range (over a period of more than 10 yrs) odds of such hits?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Not a proper question.

With such a small sample coincidence can not be ruled out.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
watch 7.5 quake at Peru to day. A strong date hit. 4 out of 4 hits. 100% accuracy.
May be this is not enough for you.
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Watch cycle quake therory in action. Last month we had major quake at Afghanistan on
26th. Exactly after 28/29th day we have two major quakes. Need more proof?