Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, January 02, 2011

Araucania, chile earthquake of 7.1 ,on 3rd December 2011

hi
please see my yesterday posting for 7+ quakes for the year 2011. It was mentioned that,-as we are close to window opening for 4th december 2011,7+ quake, I wiil not post it- just observe.
Please note todays 7.1 quake of chile, as predicted
please keep observing the dates through out the year
Regards
Amit

38 comments:

Myles said...

Very interesting that a major earthquake actually happened within this time window...

I've heard a lot about theories based on the solar system being without evidence, but perhaps there's really something to this?

I'm from Southern California (near the San Andreas fault) and I'm afraid that this window from Jan. 2 - Jan. 5 might become a disaster...

Anonymous said...

Dec 3rd 2011??? typo or is this a predidition?
Ray

Anonymous said...

it actually happened on Jan 2nd UTC and local time not the 3rd. so you missed it if going with the 4th as your predicted date.
Ray

AMIT said...

oh .yes ,It is typo error.It is January 2011
sorry
Amit

AMIT said...

Anonymous
what do you say about this prediction by seismologist and geologist ?
- There could be a major quake in Himalaya, tomorrow or 100 years hence-
How come we are so liberal for scientific predictions?
I have seen a difference,between local seismological report and USGS report, of as much as 0.4 in magnitude of quake after it has already occurred
why do we need either 0% prediction or 100% prediction?
Can we predict the exact rainfall( accuracy in mms) for a specific longitude and latitude?
Can we find exact land fall of a cyclone with decimal accuracy of longitude and latitude,well in advance,despite satellite pictures?
Let us be open about it and save some lives
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I test a prediction as it is stated.

You can't claim credit for just anything in the general area.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

When you're talking about evacuating cities, accuracy is essential.

Miss the location and you may move people into danger.

Miss the date and you may move too soon or too late.

Miss the size and you may evacuate needlessly.

Miss too often and people will ignore you.

These are not trivial problems.

Roger

Myles said...

I think what he's trying to say is that lives can't be saved if the predictions aren't accurate to a certain extent.

AMIT said...

Roger/Myles
Right now I am not talking of evacuating cities.Far more work is required to put in,to reach up to that state
Right now ,what I am trying to say is ,we need to change the frame of mind.Now start believing that ,Major earthquakes can be predicted and that , their could be other reasons rather more proper reasons for major earthquakes to occur .other than plate tectonics
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Saying it is easy.

What you need to do is prove it.

So far you have not done so and since your understanding of the earth is wrong it's unlikely that you will be able to prove anything.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
Here are my prediction dates for 2011.
Jan 12, 16, 26
Feb 20
Mar 20, 26
Apr 3, 18
May 2, 19
Jun 2, 12
Jul 1, 9, 31
Aug 6, 30
Sep 4, 28
Oct 26
Nov 15, 25
Dec 10, 25

These are my &= Predictions +-0.5 ish.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Thanks for posting dates. One point to be clarified ,whether ,these are random dates or are as per some rules/guidelines /theory etc?
Amit

Anonymous said...

No they are according to my ideas, but they are not as advanced as yours, there is a good element of randomness there. It can be thought of as 2 sets of predictions and let us see which one is better.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
OK.fine.Let us wait and watch
Amit

Anonymous said...

By the way, if you need a random set why do you need it from me? lol

Anonymous said...

By the Way I am REMI but its easier to post as anonymous...

Anonymous said...

You can put the two sets of dates somewhere visible so as we dont search for them all the time ...thanks
REMI

AMIT said...

Anonymous
It could be anybody ,other than myself
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Rami;

If I am to judge these predictions I need to know the window date range and the magnitude limits.

+-5ish is not acceptable.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Roger,
No no The window is like Amit, 3 day, 122 slots. i.e. hit, +-1 day.
The accuracy of the predicted magnitude is +-0.5 R ... I thought this was clear as I have given a calculation for this using binomal...in a previous post.
Is this OK?
REMI

Anonymous said...

I repost this here Roger so as you can see my logic. I hoped for AMIT to place this post as well as his predictions somewhere we can easily get throughout the year without having to search in old posts...a link say.... Anyway here it is...
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
Here are my prediction dates for 2011.
Jan 12, 16, 26
Feb 20
Mar 20, 26
Apr 3, 18
May 2, 19
Jun 2, 12
Jul 1, 9, 31
Aug 6, 30
Sep 4, 28
Oct 26
Nov 15, 25
Dec 10, 25

These are my 7+ Predictions +-0.5 ish.

For those predictions, here are back of the envelope calculations for randomness. As before assuming binomial distribution (debatable but hey this is the last of our problems) I give you the numbers for successes based on those distributions and for 26 trials I gave you. Assuming p=15/122 (For 7+ quakes from the average)
P( zero hits)= 3.3%
P( 1 hit)= 12.03%
P( 2 hits) = 21%
P(3 hits) = 23.6%
P(4 hits) = 19%
P(5 hits) = 11.7%
P(6 hits) = 5.7%
P(7 hits) = 2.3%
P(8 hits) = .77%
P(9 hits) = 0.1%
etc
(I will be happy to get 1 hit right ;-) ....)
Assuming in the above that we get 15 7+ quakes in the year. We will see about that, but if I get 5 hits from 15, that is 20%, which is more than the 11.7% the binomial gives as random, so there would be 'SKILL' in my predictions. Thats my thinking for now. If you agree let me know If not let us know again.....
Kind Regards,
Remi

Roger Hunter said...

Remi;

You seem to be confused.

You give 24 dates but call it 26 predictions

Then you say the odds are 15/122 which may or may not be true.

Finally you speak of 7+ mags but mention +-0.5.

You are still not clear enough to evaluate.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Now you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please see the link. Data compiled by an independent researcher
http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/77895.html

Amit

AMIT said...

pl see

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/77895.html

Anonymous said...

Roger, to clarify...
You seem to be confused.

You give 24 dates but call it 26 predictions

I did the calculations for AMIT's 26 predictions Mine are less 24. The calculations for my case will be with 24 of course slightly different plenty of time to correct it.

Then you say the odds are 15/122 which may or may not be true.

Of course 15 7+ is the average ...We dont know how many will occur but since it will be about that number if this is a typical year, I did the calculations with this number. This 15 can change later when we know if you prefer.


Finally you speak of 7+ mags but mention +-0.5.


Yes the predictions are for accuracy +- 0.5 R....is that a problem?

Remi

AMIT said...

hi
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ for theory ,dates (calender) and links (earthquake forum)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Remi;

Ok, I see now. I was the one who is confused!

In general, it's important to be very specific on what's predicted.

So you say 7+ but really mean 6.5+ which makes a big difference in the odds.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Roger, I am interested to see if 6.5 is ANY better for my predictions. IFF good, then retry the test for 7+ just press a button to calculate
Remi

Anonymous said...

One thing I am confused about: Do you also give a likely location for each of these dates?

Roger Hunter said...

Ami, Remi;

Using the NEIC catalog from 1990 to 2010 I find that the odds on getting a 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.387 while the odds for a 7+ quake are 0.125

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
For major earthquake monthly prediction (for 7+ ) please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and see -calender-
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit in your calendar put my predictions there too maybe in tick or different color so as we know what we compare.

Anonymous said...

I can give approximate places sometimes yes with astrocartography but it is not so precise.
Remi

Anonymous said...

Roger, I agree with your odds for 6.5 and 7.
I have the same calculations.
Remi

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

On your calendar, please plot the 7+ quakes as colored dots so a direct comparison can be made.

Personally I use a text file, one line per day showing quakes and windows.

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
I have slightly modified calender ,showing only one day. The text says + or - one day window period. However I could not manage colored dots. I will do it later
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi there,

Well, today Jan. 9, 2011, there seems to be an increase in activity all the way around. I am here in So Cal, and have noticed it. Also, seems Vanuatu Islands are really active. Your thoughts on this day?

Thanks!