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Saturday, January 29, 2011

February 2011 earthquake prediction

hi
1)To day ,we have Moon at extereme delination-we have a quake of 6.1
2)on 3rd Feb ,Moon is away from earth,so quake may not be more than 6.2
3)on 19 th we have full Moon ,as well as Moon at Perigee on 19th,Moon n equator Saturn Just changed direction so chaces are 6.8 quake(pl note magnitude is slightly reduced from 7+ o 6.8 (+ or - 0.3)
4) on 21st--6.4(will be finally decided by cycle quakes,before window period
All window period + or - one day and quake +or- 0.3 magitude
regrards
Amit

33 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
In fact ,if I want to pin point the time it would be like this
18th February 2011-0800-UTC
21st February 2011-0030--UTC
However,for maximum utilization of window period the dates 19was given.This is one of the draw back of predicting ,taking in account window period
AMit

Anonymous said...

Amit, Now that January has gone can you give us an update on the challenge you agreed with me? How did your choices did with the one I gave you? Worth reminding people.
Remi.

AMIT said...

Remi
Yes , I agree that I have floated an open challage to one and all for comparing my predictions with random dates.
However ,It is not fair to evaluate it by me. Roger was kind enough ,and agreed to evaluate these dates.
Let us wait for Rogers comment
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far you and Remi are neck and neck for 2011 predictions with one hit each.

Roger

arbab said...

hi amit
i hv few queries to ask from ya...
1)wt do u think does season also play a role in EQ,bcoz ive experienced from last few years that it used to come in winter every year n bcoming more frequent in that part of Pak where m living now,near to fault line.
2)on 2008 29 oct mag 6.4 hit balochistan where m living,again a winter,we lost some lifes around 150 here n series of after shocks but we hv recently faced another EQ on 19 jan 2011 again a winter,of magnitidue 7.4,although its huge then 6.4 but didnt lost any lifes by grace of
Allah,so wts its reason?
3)as per ur theory EQ comes due to force like tidal pull from moon but according to my little knowledge the moon itself faces several EQ even more then earth every hour so wts causes of EQ on it self?
4)as we all knw that newton himself says from his law that if sum thing is on rest it will remain on rest untill a force causes him to move similarly with moving body...but when tectonic plates moves it causes EQ uptill which we knw from science so my question to them nd to u is that wt causes the plates to move bcoz they r already in rest??is it against the law of newton or not???does they move bcoz of ur theory???which seems tobe correct n lastly
5)does other ppl r also working as like u do or u have some coworkers for ur theory?wt abt roger nd remi who r they???thnx alot for answering although they r very long but makes me confuse sum time....

arbab said...

hi amit
i hv few queries to ask from ya...
1)wt do u think does season also play a role in EQ,bcoz ive experienced from last few years that it used to come in winter every year n bcoming more frequent in that part of Pak where m living now,near to fault line.
2)on 2008 29 oct mag 6.4 hit balochistan where m living,again a winter,we lost some lifes around 150 here n series of after shocks but we hv recently faced another EQ on 19 jan 2011 again a winter,of magnitidue 7.4,although its huge then 6.4 but didnt lost any lifes by grace of
Allah,so wts its reason?
3)as per ur theory EQ comes due to force like tidal pull from moon but according to my little knowledge the moon itself faces several EQ even more then earth every hour so wts causes of EQ on it self?
4)as we all knw that newton himself says from his law that if sum thing is on rest it will remain on rest untill a force causes him to move similarly with moving body...but when tectonic plates moves it causes EQ uptill which we knw from science so my question to them nd to u is that wt causes the plates to move bcoz they r already in rest??is it against the law of newton or not???does they move bcoz of ur theory???which seems tobe correct n lastly
5)does other ppl r also working as like u do or u have some coworkers for ur theory?wt abt roger nd remi who r they???thnx alot for answering although they r very long but makes me confuse sum time....

Anonymous said...

Thanks Roger,

AMIT said...

Roger
Thank you very much
Amit

AMIT said...

arbab
1 &2))There is no direct relation between quakes and season
However, as per my logic (and hypothysis) during December last week and First part of January Earth remains closer to Sun ie about 0.984 AU(Astronomical Units).Thus it is faster also.
on 14th January ,there is Uttrayan-Sun stars moving northward ,after extreme south.thus momentum change in magma
However,these are my off hand views.No stats data has been compiled for this so far
3) Moonquakes are of less magnitude and less in number. It is established that,Moonquakes are due to tidal pull of EArth on Moon(which is less than Moons pull on Earth)
4) Plate tectonics says,the plate mooves due to Heat currents -convection currents of molten magma inside the crust( simmilar to boiling water comming from bottom to top of the jar).
But ,it is not known ,whether this heat cuurent are capable of moving such a huge palte? No answer from plate tectonics.
5) I am working alone ,that too part time (after my duty hours as engineer in Mumbai Corporation- India) Roger and Remi are my friends and guides
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Time and again ,it is noticed that,the date of quake prediction ,may, give ,other natural Disasters like, cyclones and volcanic eruptions
Tomorrow ,ie on 3rd Feb 2011 ,cyclone YASHI,may hit eatern part of Australia,may be categoey 4/5 (135Kms /Hr)
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit, in a few days I will be in India but unfortunately not in Chennai.

Anonymous said...

arbab,

I have tried to say a few things here about the issues in earlier posts. Change of momentum is a good idea provided you get TORQUE. A force simply is not enough. You need a torque. Gravitational pull is the ONLY long distance force which may cause interaction between planets. Problem is the force due to other planets is very small. Tidal waves because they elongate the earth are capable to change the angular velocity of the earth hence to cause disturbances on the plates and this has STATISTICALLY been proven. I have given a number of papers discussing this. However i am not sure about strong quakes. I like the idea of momentum as Saturn and Jupiter do have plenty of that. Also stationary planets may not cause such strong tides. But I am not sure about the magna liquid. I dont think Amit knows either. So unless hard numbers come down showing the torque is there I am not convinced yet. Unfortunately Amit has no numbers either. However there is value when one has a method which predicts.Even if the method does not explain why, PROVIDED it is repeatable. (If you have a dog who is barking 7 times before a 7R earthquake it is of value), even when you dont know why it happens.
Regards,
Remi

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just as multiplying the indicators increases the hits by raising the probability, so does multiplying the results.

You've got so many things going that SOMETHING is bound to happen on any day you care to mention.

Means nothing since you can't say what will happen (or where).

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I beg to difer. The argument ,you have put forward ,is valid only when ,the explation is given about a major quake ,which has alredy occured .It is like postmotum ,trying to fit one or another indicator as probable cause.
However,if I predict the quake ,well in advance ,question of multiple indicators/reasons do not stand
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit I will be in Chennai from Feb 25th to 5th March. If you can visit there (I know it is not next door) will be glad to discuss earthquakes.
Remi

AMIT said...

Remi
Thank you very much Remi.
If I get some time from my official work I will try. Yes ,It is not next door,1000 odd Kms
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

But that's not what you are doing.

You say "On this date something will happen" and then look for quake or cyclone or rain or ....

And the more things you say may be related the more hits you get and the less they mean.

Roger

arbab said...

i agree to both remi and roger nd yeah to great amit too....there must be sum reasons still hidden from our view abt major EQs need alot of time to have some more discoveries n research on it but wt i can c that we r getting close it day by day ppl like amit working out,i wish may sumday they have answers of these questions wid proven statistics nd yea remi i had a dog too nd died on 3 sept 2008 in an aftershock of EQ 3 oct 2008....i had noticed abt thier behavior just b4 EQ nd currrently m a medical student n trying to understand the behavior of these animals on such situations and i do agree too that sumday we will be also able to predicit EQs even well b4 then these animals but cant stop disasters nd tobe more accurate we have to study nd hv research too on animals in those conditions simultaniously although there sences r far more developed then us but can be predicted far more better then them using technology n science but unfortunately we hv very little knowledge abt thier behaviour on that particular time....by tha way amit wts ur theory name brother or ull give it name after it get turn into law....scientists must give an ear to ur theory....

AMIT said...

Roger
The general theory of prone dates was posted well in advance.
Now ,How can the pull affect one layer and do not affect the others?
The pull will affect all
Magma,earth crust,oceans ,clouds and atmosphere,which are in the same plane
As long as phenomenon can be explained by tidal pull and it is logical it should not be ignored
I will never say that,oil spill or 9/11 are due to tidal pull
regards
Amit
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Now ,look at the AFP (Reuters) news -James Bond erupts in Japan -in early hours of Wednesday
------ ------ ------ ----

A series of spectacular eruptions from a volcano in southern Japan fired columns of ash and smoke thousands of metres in the air early Wednesday, with the cloud delaying some international flights to Tokyo. The 1,421-metre (4,689-feet) Shinmoedake volcano in the Kirishima range, featured in the 1967 James Bond film 'You Only Live Twice', continued the series of deafening blasts which began with the start of its first major eruption for 52 years last week. Text & photo: AFP

------------- ------------- -
Now ,Roger ,What do you call? a coincidence?
We need to observe laws of natutre ,as it unfolds in front of us. .The date was predicted ,actually for quake.The tidal pressure once released ,will give less magnitude quakes
we need not look at all these in isolation.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's your problem; the pull is not sufficient to explain anything but the tides.

Anything else is just coincidence.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) Whether plate tectonics accept any relation between earthquakes and volcano eruption,at least?
2)What are the odds of such co incidences?
regards
Amit

arbab said...

Hi. now m sharing few things which i read in sum sites so here is the summary...FIRSTLY,According to http://www.gns.cri.nz/what/earthact/earthquakes/earthquakefaq.html#17How much does the moon’s gravitational pull affect earthquakes? Seismologists have investigated the effect of the moon’s gravity for many years. The short answer is that while the moon does deform the earth slightly in a 12-hour cycle called the solid earth tides, it doesn’t seem to have an effect on the time an occurrence of big earthquakes. There are difficulties in understanding the effects of tidal forces because they are relatively small. However, if a fault or region is ready to rupture, it wouldn’t take much to tip the local stress field to the point of rupture. It’s worth noting that there is a much better correlation between the earth’s gravitational pull on the moon and moonquakes. Yes, seismographs have been taken to the moon and have recorded between 300 and 600 ‘moonquakes’ per year. --- According to http://www.2012hoax.org/planetary-alignment Alignments do not cause problems Some sites claim that ‘unique alignments will cause sunspots and massive earthquakes’. The problem is that planetary alignments do not cause sunspots, and do not cause earthquakes. Alignments do not cause earthquakes The ‘earthquakes’ claim appears to be that the gravitational influence of the non-existent alignments will cause earthquakes on Earth. However, the moon is much closer to us than any other astronomical object, so even though it is much smaller and lighter, it completely swamps out any gravitational or tidal effects caused by the Sun, Jupiter, Saturn, or any other object. The Sun does cause tides on the Earth, and when these tides are combined with the moon tides (at the full and new moons) then they are called ’spring tides’. When they are counter to the moon’s tides (at the first and last quarter moons) then they are called ‘neap tides’. The primary influence on the Earth’s tides is the Moon. Other planets are too small and too far away to cause any noticeable effect. So Dr. Plait is pretty clear on this issue: there is no way that a planetary alignment of any kind can cause earthquakes. The premise (that planetary alignments can cause earthquakes) is incorrect......

arbab said...

secondaly,What causes tides:- For several centuries now, it was obvious that the tides were caused by the Moon, with Seneca, a Roman scholar, being the first to observe that the tides were especially high during the times that the Earth, Moon, and Sun were in the same line. However it was only in the seventeenth century that Sir Isaac Newton, put forward his theory of Gravitation in his book "Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica," and provided a mathematical explanation for the interaction between the Earth and the Moon. The tides are caused by the difference in the force of gravity between the end of the Earth closest to the Moon, and the opposite end, which is furthest away. While the Moon is pulling at the waters of the seas closest to it, causing a high tide, at the opposite end of the Earth, the pull is the least. This causes the waters to bulge away from the Moon, and therefore another high tide is formed on the side furthest away from the Moon. Somewhere in between these two points of high tides are two areas of low tides. This is what causes two high tides and two low tides daily. Since the tides are caused by the difference in gravitational force between opposite ends of the Earth, it can be seen that although the Sun is massive as compared to the Moon, the difference in the Sun’s gravitational force between one end of the Earth and the other is not as much as that of the Moon’s. Earthquakes:- Coast dwellers are accustomed to the daily rhythm of the tides, which are primarily lulled in and out by the gentle gravitational tug of the moon. Some scientists wonder whether the moon's tugging may also influence earthquake activity.The same force that raises the 'tides' in the ocean also raises tides in the Earth'scrust," said Geoff Chester, an astronomer and public affairs officer with the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C. Chester said the tides in the Earth's crust are subtle—on the order of a few centimeters, as opposed to the several-meter ocean tides. "We live on the crust, so we don't really notice the deviation from what would be sort of the normal form of the geoid," he said. "So the effect is small but nonetheless there." (The geoid is an imaginary outline that coincides with the mean sea level in the ocean and its extension through the continents.) In theory, this slight deformation of the Earth's crust could be sufficient to trigger an earthquake—like the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. "Most earthquakes occur on preexisting tectonic lines, and the vast majority do occur as a result of geophysical processes, but there may be some correlation [between the moon] and earthquakes," Chester said. For example, he said that in general there is a higher incidence of earthquake activity in the Northern Hemisphere when the moon is north of the Equator and an increase in earthquake activity in the Southern Hemisphere when the moon is south of the Equator. The moon's orbit is inclined in relation to the Earth, causing the moon's position in the sky to nod north and south on an 18.6-year cycle. Is the observed correlation between the moon's position in its 18.6-year cycle (or any other lunar phase) and earthquake activity a coincidence or something more? That question, Chester said, is best answered by the U.S. Geological Survey. "There's no evidence to support that," said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the survey's National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado. "There were some studies in the past that tried to link lunar effects to seismicity [the relative frequency and distribution of earthquakes] and there was nothing found." i would like to share 2 site so u ppl especially amit must visit that
1)http://www.icr.org/article/defects-jupiter-effect/
2)http://news.discovery.com/earth/earth-tide-quake.html

arbab said...

and thirdly this is for roger.....
There is still another medium that the Moon affects. This is the body of air that surrounds our planet.


The pocket of air around the Earth reaches up about 60 miles. It weighs an incredible five million billion tons. This is equivalent to 33 feet of water flowing over the surface of the Earth.

The Moon has a tide affect in this air mass, changing the height or thickness of the atmosphere every day. When it is overhead, the Moon's gravity pulls the atmosphere toward itself, sometimes by as much as 25%. This means that in certain phases of the Moon, the atmosphere bulges out an extra 15 miles.

This creates higher pressure where the Moon is, and lower pressure where it is not. Then when the Moon sinks below the horizon, the atmosphere again grows more compact.

This is a major force in affecting weather. Weather is, in fact, what happens when the atmosphere is pulled around the planet by the Moon.

There is evidence that almost every cyclone, tornado, volcanic eruption, and earthquake is associated with a significant moon position. Even thunderstorms seem to be created when the Moon is in a certain phase and position.

Yet, fantastically, the Moon's tides are not taken into consideration in weather forecasting. Maybe this is why the forecasts are so often wrong.

In comparison, folklore has much to say about how the Moon affects the weather.

So why is the Moon so effectively ignored in modern weather forecasting? According to Ken Ring, author of Predicting the Weather by the Moon . . .

In their all-out zeal to rewrite our universe so history would be more palatable, 17th century theologians made as much distance as they could between Christian society and that symbol of everything pagan; the Moon.

There was no room for the Christian god in the old moon-oriented science, which dictated that climate and weather were cyclically predictable, and the 'hand of God' was a non-issue.

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
Torque = r X F where r =position vector and F is the force vector.
Force must be from Newtons Law.
Only with torque we get change in angular momentum.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Volcanos have harmonic tremors that show up on seismograms.

The odds are not as bad as you seem to think. You have dozens of possibilities a year with your multiple indicators and the many volcanos around the world.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
For all those who doubt ,that,these are (my dates ) are fluke,here is one more hit
Predicted date 3rd Feb 2011 ,actual quake 6.4 on 4th Feb 201 at North eastern India
This has made it almost certain that ,on 18/19th Feb 2011 and not less than 6.8
Amit

AMIT said...

arbab
thank you very much for sharing the details.
If we say,there is some hot ,semisolid magma ,the (volume of which is more than waters in oceans
(pl correct me if I am wrong),why it should ot be affected by tidal pull?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Because the mantle is not liquid.

Magma is created in areas of reduced pressure which allow melting.

Roger

arbab said...

hi amit yes ur rite magma volume is greater then water in ocean nd i think that yeah tidal pull do also hv effect on magma n even more at already ruptured point even though tidal pull is so strong that it lead to mountains v all knw abt that.....

AMIT said...

Roger
The -outer core -beneath the mantle (2210 Km thick) is very low viscosity liquid. I presume 2210kms is too much comparing few km of ocean depths
Here is details from wikipedia
-------------- ------------- ----

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_core

Main article: Structure of the Earth

The interior of the Earth, like that of the other terrestrial planets, is divided into layers by their chemical or physical (rheological) properties, but unlike the other terrestrial planets, it has a distinct outer and inner core. The outer layer of the Earth is a chemically distinct silicate solid crust, which is underlain by a highly viscous solid mantle. The crust is separated from the mantle by the Mohorovičić discontinuity, and the thickness of the crust varies: averaging 6 km under the oceans and 30–50 km on the continents. The crust and the cold, rigid, top of the upper mantle are collectively known as the lithosphere, and it is of the lithosphere that the tectonic plates are comprised. Beneath the lithosphere is the asthenosphere, a relatively low-viscosity layer on which the lithosphere rides. Important changes in crystal structure within the mantle occur at 410 and 660 kilometers below the surface, spanning a transition zone that separates the upper and lower mantle. Beneath the mantle, an extremely low viscosity liquid outer core lies above a solid inner core.[68] The inner core may rotate at a slightly higher angular velocity than the remainder of the planet, advancing by 0.1–0.5° per year.[69]
------------- ----------- ----
I believe these part of liquid is subjected to the tidal pull much in the same way as waters in oceans

regards

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Watch my prediction of 6.0,on latest blog,(North East India and Mymar quake of 6.4) in response to prediction by Anonymous on 7th FEb 2011 and actual quake of 6.2 at soloman island
watch 18/19th Feb 2011
Amit