Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Pakistan earthquake ,7.2 and morderate earthquake at Delhi on 19th January 2011-A date hit

hi
Please note to days pakistan earthquake of 7.2 ,ie on 19th january 2011 ,as predicted.
This is yet another date hit of 7+ quake. How many times do w say it is by chance or by fluke.?
On an average there are 15 number of 7+ eathquake per year. ie 15/360=0.0416 ie 4.16 percentage.
If we give a random date, chances of date hit for 7+ quake is nearly 5% only
watch out the next date 25/26th January 2011
Amit

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

what an idiot you are to predict an earthquake with this f****** stupid methodology of yours.. get a life n close this blog.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
My dear fried.I could have edited and bared ,your this comment.But I will not do that.Let people know ,what you are thinking and putting your thoughts like this.How least important peoples lives are, for you.
I hope you are luky enough ,not to loose your dearest one in one of such disasters.
If you realy want to debate ,talk like gentleman
God bless you
regards
Amit

jeevan said...

Sir,
Your prediction was perfect. You do an Excellent job and your research study is amazing.
~ Jeevan Patil.

Anonymous said...

you have been accurate again! your next date is 25 jan.2011.please give the % chances whether it could be 90% or 99%?
juee

AMIT said...

juee
The chances are fairly high.May be 99%.(with + or - one day window period)however the place can not be identified.Besides ,giving all parameters of quake(date,magnitude,and place) may amount to an offence under National Disaster Act under spreading the roumers
so watch he dates and magnitude right now
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

jivan
Thank you very much.We have to spread awareness that,major earthquakes can be predicted and that the existing plate tectonic theory may not be correct to predict the earthquakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The odds on a 7+ quake in a 3 day window are .125 so an occasional hit is to be expected.

What matters is the overall record and yours is not good.

Roger

Faraz said...

Amit part of your study makes sense..
But what really confuses me is how you predict next date to be 25/26??
You say "if we give a date randomly" then how come its 25/26?? why not sum other date??

Faraz said...

Amit part of your research makes sense.. But what confuses me is how u picked the date to be 25th or 26th..
You said "If we give a random date" then why the dates are 25th or 26th, why not some there then these??

Cara said...

I would love to discuss your research, I am studying the effects of solar system orientation on weather patterns.

Anonymous said...

I really amazed to see your prediction yesterday after shockwaves have gone through beneath my place. Man, you really are amazing. And I read your theory which as you said based upon observations. You did a superb job. If 25th also become true, than you should join some international disaster management cell. I am sure you also knew the exact location of earthquake. You should disclose tht location either only by giving the name of tht region. Tht will be ur favor to the people live in that place coz every one can be alert and it will also helpfull in minimizing the damages. Hope you understand my point.

Anonymous said...

dear amit ,

I don't know who you're and how you predict quakes ,but its seems your motive is to save lifes .excellent .

good luck :)

AMIT said...

Roger
1) This was a date hit
2) Let us wait and watch
3) If it is a fluke or occasional hit, what ,any one should not get date hits?
4) How many date hits in the current year ,you think , can be treated as above average and something better than random dates?
regards
AMit

AMIT said...

Faraz
The date 25th January 2011 ( with + or - one day window period) is not a random date. The date has been calculated as per theory
Mentioned of random date was given to show ,how difficult it is to get a
7+ quake date hit with random dates,ie less than 5%
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

cara
I would be happy to help you ,if I can ,in any way
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Thank you very much
1) If you see my blog ,you will find so many hits (with + or - one day window ) .This includes , Chile quake of this year also
2) I have seen that , no one is interested in a theory ,which says ,that ,the existing plate tectonics theory is not correct or at least not complete. USGS spend millions of Dollars on this theory ,which ,they themselves believe can not predict the quakes. With this mind frame ,how the prediction can be done with existing theory?
I have already worked with Disaster Management Cell of Mumbai,India. They are also not interested in prediction.Only post Disaster help and Pre Disater training,that is what they need.
NOw I am no more associated with Disaster cell.All I do on my own interest ,resource and part time work
Any way it is part of Game
3) To be frank , I keep a personal record of predicted dates , but they are not accurate(less than 40% )
This is because, if I miss time by more than 5 minutes ,the resultant pull acting on place ,moves away. Earth moves both in orbit as well as around axis,hence no accuracy
Nevertheless , I believe if ,enough time and resources are given ,a band of 10 degrees around the globe can be predicted
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

There are several reasons for giving 25/26th January 2011
1)As per cycle quake theory 7 and 1/2 day
2) Saturn changes the direction on 26th
3)neap tide day-Sun Moon at 90 degrees
4)on 25th Moon joins Saturn ,which changes the direction
5)Moon is closer (not perigee).as perigee is to day ie 22nd Jan
place can not be predicted as of now. But as a thumb rule ,after 7 and 1/2 day,the place where major quake occurred should remain alert
AMit

Ali Khan said...

Amit,
Its Ali here, previously comment as Anonymous asking u to join any disaster cell.
Well its our badluck that sometimes we missed persons like u who can help out in some other manner but due to conflict with our scientifically proven methods we ignor people as u had experience.
any ways, today's shockwave upto 6.3 in northern areas of Pakistan, is it hving any relation with ur predition of 25 Jan ....

Ali Khan said...

Further Amit, I think your theroy can also having scientific weight, its just you are following from some different angle which is not directly relates to tectonics studies but it is giving predictions which are till now for 2011 are 100% accurate. So man u can take media support, media is a very powerfull tool these days and it will definitely work for u.

Todays tremors at 6.3 in northern areas are nearest to 7 mark as predicted by you.

AMIT said...

Ali khan
Thank you very much.The Mumbai Daily DNA had once published an article with my theory. This had made a very huge hue and cry among so called learned geologists.please see the link for detailed debate. So much so that,it become open challenge. Dates also came true

http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/06/mumbai-engineer-claims-new-earthquake.html
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Ali Khan
further the link to DNA report is here

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_bmc-engineer-floats-theory-for-earthquake-prediction_1168280

regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Ali khan
Thank you very much. I hope ,one day theory will get some weightage after observing complete 2011 dates
Regarding to days quake of Tazakistan- Yes .You are right
However,this is not enough for my prediction. Yet one more-bigger than this- is to come between 25 to 26th January 2011.
Amit

Ali Khan said...

Amit,
I read the comments of the link and I tell you that these geologists and other scientists who are following geological theories will not accept your instance. One thing can be done, An organization of same mind sets can be formed who will try to recognize your theory from any international institute monitoring earthquakes world wide. Further TV channels can play a major role in developing credibility of your theory. You can try to get appeared on any domestic TV channel, if you were in Pakistan, I can arrange a guest appearance of you in any local talk show.
As far as i think your one appearance and subsequent fulfillment of your prediction will give you a great push in front of international media. After than your expertise and knowledge will get accredited by the whole world.

Further more, can you predict the place (nearest) of the quake expected on 25th or 26th Jan.

Ali Khan said...

Amit,
What your predictions say about 2012. As i heard that sun will enter in milky way on December 21, 2012 at 11.11 am and very major and severe earthquakes, tsunamis and cyclons are expected.

AMIT said...

Ali khan
Thanks for your support
As far as 2012 predictions are concerned , I have not yet calculated for 2012. I take one year at a time
Nevertheless, I can say that, the theory of dooms day is not correct. Nothing of that magnitude will occur
I have no idea how Sun will enter milky way on a specified day.If any calculations are available pl forward a link
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

AmitSri: We felt earthquake today(26/01/2011 near delhi. your prediction can help the public very much.You must be connect with media to spread your methology.
Can you predict the next date for same...

Anonymous said...

Hey there was an quake of 3.2 @ sonepat near Delhi on 26th Jan...
But thats under 7...
U can put it up under some Facebook Page..ur predictions and possible locations...offcourse u can always go anonymous.....

AMIT said...

hi
Predicting quakes less than 5.0 is no big deal.They occur on almost daily basis
What is important is quakes greater than 6
I have posted my mails to media as well as USGS. Now I will only post on my blog and web page,for people at large
One of the daily DNA have once carried an article in june 2008

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_bmc-engineer-floats-theory-for-earthquake-prediction_1168280

Amit

Anonymous said...

ya, an earthquake was felt in delhi on 26th. your prediction was right. people say that one major one is expected this year . this is really frightening for people like us . can you suggest if its true. it will be of great help.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
I am sorry. Places can not be pin pointed as of now.There is no need to be frightened.
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

AmitCSri: Hey Amit as i asked earlier..
Can you predict next DATE of earthquake,not talking about the place.I think most of use interested to know it..
All the best for your great job..

AMIT said...

hi
The probable dates for February 2011 are already published ,on this blog (latest blog-see -Home) and also on my web page

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
and see -calender-
What I feel useful to people is the probable dates for 6+ quakes irrespective of places. We have some prone area defined at plate boundaries-ring of fire-.
If scientists or geologist predict a major quake at a specified place but without time frame-say tomorrow or after 5000 years after- what do we do with this prediction? ,it is of no use.
Incited ,if we have 25 odd dates to take care,it is more useful
please note that , I do not predict places,hence,no one should be anxious about these dates
Regards
AMit

Anonymous said...

What the fuck are you doing..
I dont belive your stupid prediction..
If it is right even then you should not do it on social blog..
I am getting harh...i konow it
but my brother has been dipressed these days because of your blog..
And you are responsible for that

AMIT said...

Dear Anonymous
I could have edited or blocked your posting. But I will not do that
First of all I am ex termly sorry if some one got depressed solely due to my blog
Let e also make it clear that ,as I am not mentioning any place,no one should be scared
By the way ,I am also working for NGO on mental health called Maitri(ie friendship).if your brother have any of following symptoms lease see a psychiatrist immediately
1) Loss of sleep
2) Loss of apatite
3) Loss of interest in any work
4) Feeling of worthlessness
5) Extreme fear of death (due to earthquake)
I am truly sorry for what you have described
Love
Amit

Anonymous said...

I have never seen better than this site.

Anonymous said...

AmitCSri:
Hi Amit,
Noting seen for long time even many earthquake feels these days. Are you left this blog :(
Plz don’t do it if you are thinking so.

AMIT said...

hi
No. How can I leave this blog? The earthquake prediction is my first hobby and almost a passion.I have been doing this since last 16 years
(after Latur-India quake on 30th September 1993)
If you go to home page of this blog, you can see my latest postings
OR-You can see some of the favorite posts at the right side of this blog

or go to hme page

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/

regards
Amit