Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Bolivia Earthquake of 6.6 on 22nd November 2011


Watch the first quake of 6.6 at Bolivia on 22nd November 1848Hrs.

and accuracy of prediction

One question to pro plate tectonic theory members

Question- The quake at Bolivia was very deep ie 533 kms below .The earth crust is mostly 50to 60 km thick


How this quake could originate as below as 533 kms. and what short of crust failure this quake could be?

Watch till 26th November ,the dates and times

(place not predicted)



Roger Hunter said...


No mystery there. The area is part of a subduction zone that runs along the coast of South America.

The oceanic crust dives down into the mantle and the deep quakes are due to phase changes in the crustal material under heat and pressure.


AMIT said...

few questions still remain open like
1)With such a huge temp and pressure inside ,how the crust can push inside up to 10 times thickness ,without melting?
2)Are heat current forces are enough to drive the plate at such a depth with double resistance-resistances at the crust boundries and inside the mantle
3) By phase changing ,if we man changing from solid to semisolid/viscuous liquid,how and why it should produce jerks/quakes?
as it a slow process.
Phase changing is slow processs and may not produce jerks(to the best of my knowledge)

We know the plate(which runs along coast of south America) area,approx volume,average desinty,average speed of the plate, and coeffient of friction between the two plates.

Now can we find out the force required to move this plate ,deep down up to 600 kms against all frictional forces?
And the heat current forces moving the plate are enough to move it?
are there any other forces acting on the plate and moving it?

Roger Hunter said...


1) The mantle is not molten and the downward moving crust is cold (by comparison).

2)Evidently; it happens.

3)I don't know for sure but I had the impression that it was a sudden change in volume.

Yes, there are spreading centers pushing on one end and the weight of the descending crust pulling on the other end.


AMIT said...

Scientists are not sure as to what moves the plates.
In case of plates other than subduction ,it is still difficult to explain the force, as gravitational pull on subducted part is not present
More surprising thing is that ,Venus do not have any plates and active plate tectonics. why, is still a mystery
One explanation given is that, being hot Venus have no water content,which helps in movement.
(which is not convincing)