Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, November 02, 2011

Earthquake prediction for November 2011

hi
 The probable dates for major earthquakes in November 2011 are

1) 10th November 2011-------6.3

2) 13th November  2011------6.5

3) 24/25th November 2011---6.7

location not predicted

Amit

31 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
GNS science of NZ have predicted ,there could be some more quakes at Canterbury

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/canterbury-earthquake/90103/strong-quake-could-hit-canterbury-warns-gns

How on earth the seismologist can predict such things ,stating locations, when they themselve says earthquakes can not be predicted.
while testing my predicted dates (without locations) I was told that,the accuracy should be 99%.
--- ---
The report is reproduced here

Aftershocks in Canterbury are decreasing, but GNS Science says there is still a possibility of a magnitude 6.0 or above to hit the region.

The agency has issued updated figures, based on a new forecasting model.

It says there is a 15% chance a magnitude 6.0 - 6.4 to aftershock will hit in the next year.

But just a 4% chance of a quake measuring magnitude 6.5 - 6.9.

Anything above that is very unlikely with only a 1% chance of a quake measuring more than magnitude 7.0.

GNS forecasting also shows the probability of magnitude 5.0 aftershocks is still quite high, (88% for 5.0 - 5.4 and 46% for 5.5 - 5.9) and there will likely be several per year over the next few years.

The aftershock zone encompasses Christchurch city, Banks Peninsula, and west to Hororata, north to Kaiapoi and south to Lincoln.
Amit

Holly said...

I had a dream the othe night Virginia would have a big earthquake on either November 10, 11, 12, 13 or 14th. When I found you and your site...I am amazed and speachless.

Holly said...

I had a dream a couple nights ago that Virginia would have an earthquake on either November 10, 11, 12, 13, or 14th. After finding your prediction, I am amazed and nervous...

AMIT said...

HOlly
No need to worry.Locations can not be pin pointed ,hence relax and enjoy
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
We have to day 5.6 quake at Oklohoma
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
For November 2011 prediction ,pl see my November 2011 predictions on this blog as well as on my web page. The unusual Oklahoma quakes are part of 4th November 2011 prediction

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to calender

Though it is not possible to pin point places of quakes as of now, the date and approximate magnitude can be predicted
Unfortunately ,seismologist in general and USGS in particular believes that quake can not be predicted and there is only one theory that can explain quakes is plate tectonics-
Those who speaks against the proclaimed theory are either ridiculed or ignored ,forget giving any help or aid for that

Next date (probable) for quakes of 6+ are
10th ,13th and 24/25th November 2011

Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.9 quake at Tiwan today ie 8th November
I expect one more between 9th and 10th Nov.
Place not known
Amit

Anonymous said...

I live in Christchurch and have had a strange feeling about the 10th November. 2 days away here is hoping im wrong

AMIT said...

hi
Please do not worry. Places and locations can not be predicted as of now.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here are the actaul quakes (7+) as against predicted dates for the year 2011 ,till October 2011
1) January
Prediction date -------------actual dates and quake
4th------------------2nd at 2020Hrs UTC----7.2
2)April
8th-----------------7th at 1432 Hrs--7.1
3)July
9th------------------6th at 1903 Hrs---7.6
10th---------------7.0
4)August
22nd----------------20th at 1819 Hrs-----7.1

5)September
5th-------------------3rd at 2255 Hrs UTC---7.0
16th-----------------15th -----7.3
6)October
22/23rd-------------21st--------7.4
23rd--------7.2
Thus there are 9 Hits of 7+ quakes
If you do not consider little inaccurcy of 2/3 Hrs ,there are 5 dot hits (+ or - one day window and 7+)


There are 19 quakes of 7+ during January to October 2011(incluning clusters)
The average number of 7+ quakes per year are 15
thus odds are 15/120----120 because ,total days 360/ 3 day window period
ie 1/8 ie one in eight or 0.125
Now 9 hits out of 19 is 9/19 0.473
Even if we consider 5 hit out of 19 it comes to
5/19 ie 0.263
Both way it is above random date selection or average occurances(even after taking in to account cluster of quakes)

Amit

Yogesh said...

You just predicted Turkey's earthquake or what.. its 10th November 2011 and Turkey has got one...

Yogesh, New Delhi

AMIT said...

Yogesh
I do not predict locations.
Yes.5.7 quake at eastern turkey and atleast three people lost their lives
If we keep vigil on specified dates at prone places and also where the major quake has already occured,some lives can be saved.
Though this quake is of lesser magnitude than expected

Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Have anybody noticed that,quakes are generaly
followed by abnormal weathers,tornedo,heavy rain
etc. Is there any relation between both?
Yes. Both are interconnected.
Watch wether pattern at Turkey or Oklahoma.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
In continuation of above I would like to add one thing
Classic Sanskrit text by famous scholar Varhmihir even says that,
If we observe weather pattern for the 7 days before ,the quake can be predicted at that location.
Any Idea why 7 days before?
This is exactly what I term as cycle quake theory
It says
seven and half days Before and after any major quake,the quakes qccurs ,which seismologist termed as preshocks and aftershocks
If the combination is strong enough it can occur 15 or 21 days before and after also
Moon takes another position 90 degree apart after 7/8th Day,which is also a potent positin.
I do not know how seismologist and Geologist will take this adia
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
The question asked is
Did oil and gas fracking caused the Oklahomo quakes ?
In my openion it can not produce quakes.
Infact,I believe plate tectonic is not the root cause of quakes.
Plates are due to quakes and quakes are not due to plates.It appears ,cause and effect are interchaged
Amit

Anonymous said...

13 th Nov. felt a tremor in Nepal.

Anonymous said...

I agree for 24/25 Nov.2011 date for earthquake prediction of Mr. Amit

Ravinder Mittal said...

I agree with 24/25 Nov. 2011 date for earthquake prediction of Mr. Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.6 quake (modified as 6.3) at Molucca sea area on 14th november 2011 , as predicted
Watch the accuracy
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more quake of 5.4 at Eastern Turkey on 14th Nov.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.0quake at NE of NZ on 18th November 2011
It is 10.45 UTC now.(18th Nov )
Four Hrs from now Sun and Moon will be exactly at Square position
Thus ,if ther is a quake of 6+ with in 6 to 12 Hrs from now(place not known) ,the quakes on 24/25th November will get confirmation(place not known)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
It is surprising that scientists say they have no clue why eastern cost of USA occured.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/scientists-seek-clues-about-eastern-us-earthquakes-as-project-spreads-to-georgia-other-states/2011/11/18/gIQAgOUDYN_story.html

or see news atthe right side of this blog
How do we say we know quakes occurs due to plate tectonic theory only?

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
5.9 quake at Mymar to day ie 21st
2011,
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
5.9 at Maymar on 21st Nov is not enough as per prediction .
Dates to watch are between 23rd and 26th for atleast two major quakes (6.4 to 7.0)(place /location not known)

Amit

AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AMIT said...

HI
Here, I will attempt to give time in UTC,for predicted quakes of 6.5.
1)23rd Nov.2011-----0615 Hrs
2)25th Nov 2011----0630 Hrs
3)26th Nov 2011-----1015 Hrs
please note places and locations are not predicted

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Watch the first quake of 6.6 at Bolivia on 22nd November 1848Hrs.
and accuracy of prediction
One question to pro plate tectonic theory members
Question- The quake at Bolivia was very deep ie 533 kms below .The earth crust is mostly 50to 60 km thick
Ref-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_crust

How this quake could originate as below as 533 kms. and what short of crust failure this quake could be?

Watch till 26th November ,the dates and times
(place not predicted)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.1 quake at Japan Necular Power plant on 23rd November 2011
watch 25th /26th November 2011 for quake (plave not known )
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
A 6.2 quake at Hokaido Japan ,just now ,ie 10.45 UTC
watch the accuracy
There is still one more to come, 6.5, between 25th and 26th November 2011 (place not known )
Now ,what do we call this cluster of 6+ quakes between 23rd and 26th November 2011, just by a chance?
Amit

Anonymous said...

HI,WHEN ARE YOU DOING THE DATE LIST FOR DECEMBER? CHEERS

AMIT said...

Hi
The dates for complete year 2011is posted on this blog.pl see right side of this blog .
The probable dates are 7,10,19 & 25th December 2011.
Detail study is not done yet. However,it may not change much
Amit