Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

6.9 earthquake in Burma and NE India on 13th April 2016

hi
 Yes , I am aware that, this quake is 12 hrs outside my window period,. But it says a lot about potential of dates selected for 6.5+ quakes
 Tis moth is special and have much potential due to some specific reasons like Mars closest, Mars changing Direction and Mars at Maximum Declination. Between 12th and 13th Moon was at Maximum declination North. Though Pluto have less potential, it is also changing direction this month. Today ie on 13th at the time of quake Moon was opposing Pluto.
 Next potential date is 26th of this Month (+ or - one day window)
Amit

10 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Time for an update on your April predictions.

So far there have been 8 qualified quakes and your first two predictions have captured 3 of them.

So 2/3 predictions correct but only 3/8 quakes and none of the 3 mag 7+ quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Are you takking of 6+ or 6.5+ quakes?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

6.5+ quakes, 3 day prediction window.

With a 1 day window you only have 1 quake hit.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Probable score for the month;

2/3 predictions correct, 3/9 quakes

Mag 7 today missed by you as were all the rest of the four 7+ quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
My question remained unanswered.
why and how a date gives two or more 6.5+ quakes at two diffeent location that too half an hour apart
can any body explain with plate tectonics?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sure. The hit was by chance and the quakes are due to a critical strain level being reached - by plate tectonics.

Now can you explain why your method failed to predict the 4 largest quakes in this month?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Look at this way
we have 728 numbers of 6.5+ quakes between 1st April 2000 to 30th April 2015. Total number of days are 5505. Therefore odds are 728/5505 =0.132
Now,during this month, i have given 3 dates ie total 9 days
(9)(0.132) =1.188 say 1.2
Thus , if I have only one hit (of 6.5+) during these 9 days window period ,I have below average score
How if I have 3 hits instead?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Small samples can be deceiving. They necessarily give wrong answers.

Suppose the odds on a hit are 1/10 and you make 3 predictions, one of which is right.

Can you say 1/3 is better than chance so you are a good predictor?

No you can't. The small sample won't permit a smaller answer.

That's why we need 100 or more predictions to get a good answer.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I think ,15 years is not a small sample
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

For this sort of analysis, 15 years is a small sample.

100 years would be better, it just isn't practical.

Your overall average isn't all that great either. I'm just doing these monthly posts for something to do.

Roger