Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, July 30, 2016

Earthquake prediction for August 2016

hi
Here are probable dates for 6 and 6+ quake for the month of August 2016

1) 5th August ....6.2
2) 13th August...6.5
3)  19th August...6.3
4) 22th  August...6.4
5) 26th  August...6.6

Amit Dave

30 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

By making 5 predictions, each 3 days long, your odds are 50-50. Coin toss odds.

However, you did not specify a mag range so the quake must have exactly that mag value to qualify, making the odds very small.

You missed a mag 6.1 in the Indian Ocean today.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Magnitude range is + or - 0.3.
However,I prefer to take in to avvount 6 and 6+ quakes
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
watch the first hit today ie 4th August...6.1 at Argentina
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Yet another 6.2 at Japan.
Any co incidence?
Wake up USGS..
Wake up JAMA
Wake up NDA ..India
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes those two quakes are hits but since they were in the same window it counts as 1 correct prediction.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
This is unfair and injustic.
You count total say x 6+ quakes and I have predicted only Y.
In that case only one 6+ quake to be taken ina window period of 3 days.
Amiy

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You do not predict the number of quakes in your windows so get no credit for multiple hits.

All I can say is 1/4 predictions correct so far, 2/3 quakes in windows so far.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I do not agree
It is 1/1 (and not 1/4 ,as three dates are yet to come. After miss of all remsing dates ,you csn say 1/4)
And 2/3
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's 1/4 SO FAR. That indicates the current status.

You made 4 predictions and SO FAR, one is correct.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
one more wuake.6.3 at volcano island ,Japan region. Watch quakes around the predicted date.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes that's a hit too but it's still 1/4 predictions correct 3/4 quakes in windows.

So far...

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

7.6 in the Loyalty Islands, a date hit for you.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
A major 7.2 quake at Loyalty Island on 12th .Watch accuracy of prediction?
Any one treating this as a fluke?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Not a date hit ,however in window period.
I am expecting one more major quake in window period
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
one more 6.1 quake at south of fiji.also 8n window period
Are some dates prone to major quakes all over the globa?
Amit Dave
Ami

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes another quake in this window.

How many do you expect?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes I expect one more 6+ ( may be 6.5+) on 14th at 14 UTC ( + or - 6 Hrs)

and probable locations are
95 degrees East or 85 degrees west ( + or - 15 degrees)

Disclaimer

This is only a prediction and there are not supposed to be correct and this may not be treated as warning

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No third quake in the 14th window.

Wrong.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It was 5.9 .just on the boundry .
Quake magnitude also depends on the fault line.. A weak line may have induce 6.3 quake.
Any way ....mathemticaly or statisticaky ,you can call it a (just )miss by 0.1 magnitude
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
A 6.0 quake on 18th at southern pecifice rise.
pl note USGS says it is 5.9.where as emsc says 6.0.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
A major 7.4 quake at south georgia island to day ie on 19th August ..A date hit prediction.
Any one doubting the prediction.
Watch accuracy of prediction thid month.
100%...
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, a good date hit.

I could call it wrong because you didn't predict mag correctly.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Whatever you call it....It is a major date hit for me and for so many of my estimed viewers/followers
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
one more quake of 6.0 at East coast of Honshu Japaan to day ie 20th August 2016
How many hits are required to prove ?
Amit

Unknown said...

Hi amit, do you have a hit in each of the four Windows so far?
Tom

AMIT said...

Tom
Three dates and window period have gone and all three dates/window are hit.In fact almost all 6+ quakes occured in this month are in my window periods
Amit

AMIT said...

Tom
Yes ,there is fourth hit date. The quake of 6 at Indonesia on 23rd August
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi.
6.2 quake at Itly.I am aware it is 1 hr late.
When seismologist predict major quake with winfow years of 500 .How sbout inaccuracy of one hour.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
one more major quake..6.8 at India Burma Border.
Any one have dou t ,that some dates are prone to major quakes?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Good month for you but you missed the 2 quakes on the 24th.

Roger