Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

April 2011 earthquake predictions-modified

hi
The originally predicted dates for April 2011 are 3rd and 17th (7.5+).
However ,they are now a bit modified as under ( with one more date and lesser magnitude).
( 1) 3rd April 2011--6.8.
(2)9/10th April 2011---7.1. (ie 9th Noon to 10th Noon UTC).
(3)17th April 2011----6.9.
Window period is + or - one day.
Magnitude window is + or - 0.3.
Amit

13 comments:

Hammy said...

Ken Ring recommended you, alas he is not making his thoughts re earthquake timings public anymore

Anil said...

I feel the quake could be on 3rd april due to amavasya(no moon)
juee shah

AMIT said...

hi
Yes ,The quake(6.4) to day ie 3rd April at fIJI region at 14.07 UTC

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One more quake .Java ,6.7 between 3/4th April 2011 as predicted
Time and again ,we have date hit quake predictions.Still we say ,it is impossible to predict major quakes.
Please give other theories a chance.
We (science and seismology) have wasted lot of time and tax payers money.
What is the harm ,if science ,seismology and gvt officials ,keep vigil on given 25 odd dates in a year at prone places
It may sound like ,self praise ,but I would like to state,given enough time and resources , it is possible to predict major quakes (6.5+) with fair amount of accuracy of date and even place( a band of Lomng and Latt ) along the
globe
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.1 earthquake at Kyushu ,Japan on 9th April 2011 as predicted.
Though,this s not all ,yet to come some quakes by 11th April 2011
Place not known
Amit

AMIT said...

7.1(6.6?)to day ie 11th April 2011 eastern Honsu right on time ,may be few Hrs off.
Why are we not beleving such striking accuracy?
DO we still say it is by Chance?
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
6.6 earthquake in Kermadec Island on 18th April 2011 ,as predicted

Due to heavy work schedule of my engineering office work , I may not be able to post regularly.
Please excuse me for any delay
As long as I am in service I have to work first and research is a part time affair
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You said;

> ( 1) 3rd April 2011--6.8.

Correct.
2011,04,03,200640.92, -9.825, 107.717,6.8, 14,PDE-Q

> (2)9/10th April 2011---7.1. (ie 9th Noon to 10th Noon UTC).

Wrong.

> (3)17th April 2011----6.9.

Correct.
2011,04,18,130302.66,-34.354, 179.854,6.6, 86,PDE-Q


> Window period is + or - one day.
Magnitude window is + or - 0.3.

Not bad for 3 day windows but I'll have to check the odds on mag 6+ quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thank you very much
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
we have
on 9th
PDE-Q 2011 04 09 125748.80 30.00 131.79 16 6.0 MwUCMT ..M .......

on 11th
PDE-Q 2011 04 11 081612.77 36.99 140.41 11 6.6 MwUCMT ..M .......

Roger ,the quake on 11th April 2011 was 6.6 ie out of range + or - 0.3.It comes under + or - 0.5


The quake on 7th was 7.1 but it is ut of window period by margin of say 20 hrs

Thanks again

Amit

AMIT said...

roger
Have you calculated odds for April 2011 quakes ?
One more thing.odds should be calculated for 6.5+ and not for 6+
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
There are following 6 quakes of 6.5 +


PDE-Q 2011 04 03 200640.92 -9.82 107.72 14 6.8 MwUCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2011 04 07 131124.63 17.44 -93.92 166 6.7 MwGCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2011 04 07 143243.28 38.28 141.57 42 7.1 MwUCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2011 04 11 081612.77 36.99 140.41 11 6.6 MwUCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2011 04 18 130302.66 -34.35 179.85 86 6.6 MwUCMT ..M .......
PDE-Q 2011 04 23 041654.86 -10.37 161.22 79 6.8 MwUCMT ..M .......

Does this mean odds are 6(quakes )/10(windows in month)? ie 0.6

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
There are 950 quakes of 6.5+ during 1991 to 2010 ie 20 years(NEIC)

ie 950/20=48 in year ie 4 per month
Now 4/10 (window period in month)
Thus odds of 6.5+ are 0.4
please correct me if I am wrong
Do you thing April 2011 record are above average?

AMit