Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, September 20, 2017

7.1 Maxico earthquake and earthquake prone dates

Roger
 Time and again we have seen that some dates are prone to major quakes
 It would be interesting to study the same
 Take date and time in GMT for the major quakes of 7 and above, for last say 10 years .
 Find out 6+ quakes in window period of +or - 12 hrs ,excluding aftershocks within 100km radius,all over the globe
  Now compare these quakes with odds of 6+ quakes in 24 hrs

 Find the difference

19 comments:

AMIT said...

Roger
However ,pl see that if aftershocks are not considered,than do not consider it for odds also
Otherwise, consider aftershocks in both cases

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Interesting idea, sort of what triggers what where.

I'll do it but not right away. I'm tied up on another project at the moment.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Ok
Thanks
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today.

Your current score is 4/7 quakes, 2/4 predictions

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Results sent by email. Getting it printed right was the hard part!

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes.
But it is little tough to understand as tables do not have title head and printing is also a problem
Can it be summarised ?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Something's wrong then because what I sent had column headings.

It shows the number of 6+ quakes globally for each day in the year for 2007 to 2016. At the bottom of each column is the yearly total number of 6+ quakes, the number of days with at least one quake and the odds, which is total quake days divided by 366 days. This tends to be around 1/3 more or less.

The final column is quakes per day for all 10 years ant the odds are nearly 100% when figured that way.

Roger

Anonymous said...

A private research institute has written a letter to the Prime Minister on December 31 that a major earthquake will occur in the Indian Ocean.

B.K Research Association for E.S.P. Amit or Roger, do you guys have any idea on this?

AMIT said...

1)Major Earthquakes (6+) dates (+or-1 day) can be predicted
2)It is difficult to pinpoint location
3)I predict probable dates for 6+ quakes ,without location
4)This is ESP ,(Extra Sensory Perception), which has no base and science or any calculation or even any instruments,so can not be relied
Most i.portant point is ,as per Indian Disaster Act 2005,it is a punishable offence to give all three aspects of Earthquake ie
Date, magnitude and Location
The man ,issuing notice with signature can be procecuted and even forwarding msg is also an offence.
I wonder ,how one dare to issue signed warning
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Anonymous;

Could it happen? Yes

Will it happen? No way to know.

ESP? Nonsense

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hey outstanding website! Does running a blog like this
require a large amount of work? I've very little expertise in coding however I was hoping to start
my own blog soon. Anyway, should you have any
suggestions or techniques for new blog owners please share.
I know this is off subject however I just had to ask. Cheers!

AMIT said...

Hi
No.It does not require a great work neighter coding skill.In fact any one can do it.
But the point is you have to have a topic ,issues, skill,knowledge which you want to share passionately.
You are always working on that field and have some patience
Regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

While reviewing my program I realized I had not answered your question.

So I wrote another program. It doesn't exactly answer the question because the first program worked in days so the odds are for a hit in +/- 24 hours.

Rewriting it is too much work and the odds on a hit are only 1/3 (approximately)
so the new program gives +/- 1 day results.

There were 1763 mag 6+ quakes in 10 years
1576 were mag 6, 187 were mag 7+

324 of the mag 6 quakes were within +/- 1 day from a mag 7+ quake and over 100 km away (to rule out aftershocks)

25 mag 6 quakes were within 100 km and thus aftershocks.

But with a 1/3 probability, 525 of the mag 6 quakes should have been hits.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Some points to be noted
1)In 3650 days (ie 10years) there were 1763 quakes. It comes out to be 1 quake in 2 days. or 0.5 quake per day
2)Assuming each 7+ quake is on separatedays,we have 324 quakes in 187 days ( those days of 7+ quakes).
It comes out to be 1.7 quake per day
It necessarily imply that, on 7 + quake days (+ or - one day) we have more 6+ quakes (1.7 per day), than normal odds of 0.5 per day
Thus ,7+ quakes do triger 6+ quakes all over the globe .In other words some dates are prone to major quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

1) You're forgetting that some days have multiple quakes. The table shows that and counts days with hits so 1/3 is a good average with some years more and others less.

2) is just false and so is the conclusion. There were 324 quakes that were on 7+ days but not aftershocks so you could argue distant triggering but that's useless for prediction because it depends on the fault being ready to go. It's not due to a magic date.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1)I have taken 0.5 ie 1/2, is one 6+ quake in 2 days.Where as you say it is 1/3, ie 1 quake in 3 days.
In fact your statement is more favorable
2If aftershocks are not considered in 324 quakes (6+),it will increase if we consider aftershocks also
I could not understand ,why we can not interpret that ,some dates ( when 7+ quake already occured) are prone for 6+ quakes all over the globe
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I cannot understand why you do not understand.

There are no magic dates, no lunar influences that can be used to predict quakes.

Your method has failed, year after year.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
But last month's results and your findings shows something else
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Not in the least. You can't be wrong ALL the time.

Roger