Roger

Time and again we have seen that some dates are prone to major quakes

It would be interesting to study the same

Take date and time in GMT for the major quakes of 7 and above, for last say 10 years .

Find out 6+ quakes in window period of +or - 12 hrs ,excluding aftershocks within 100km radius,all over the globe

Now compare these quakes with odds of 6+ quakes in 24 hrs

Find the difference

Time and again we have seen that some dates are prone to major quakes

It would be interesting to study the same

Take date and time in GMT for the major quakes of 7 and above, for last say 10 years .

Find out 6+ quakes in window period of +or - 12 hrs ,excluding aftershocks within 100km radius,all over the globe

Now compare these quakes with odds of 6+ quakes in 24 hrs

Find the difference

## 19 comments:

Roger

However ,pl see that if aftershocks are not considered,than do not consider it for odds also

Otherwise, consider aftershocks in both cases

Amit;

Interesting idea, sort of what triggers what where.

I'll do it but not right away. I'm tied up on another project at the moment.

Roger

Roger

Ok

Thanks

Amit

Amit;

Quake today.

Your current score is 4/7 quakes, 2/4 predictions

Just chance.

Roger

Amit;

Results sent by email. Getting it printed right was the hard part!

Roger

Roger

Yes.

But it is little tough to understand as tables do not have title head and printing is also a problem

Can it be summarised ?

Amit

Amit;

Something's wrong then because what I sent had column headings.

It shows the number of 6+ quakes globally for each day in the year for 2007 to 2016. At the bottom of each column is the yearly total number of 6+ quakes, the number of days with at least one quake and the odds, which is total quake days divided by 366 days. This tends to be around 1/3 more or less.

The final column is quakes per day for all 10 years ant the odds are nearly 100% when figured that way.

Roger

A private research institute has written a letter to the Prime Minister on December 31 that a major earthquake will occur in the Indian Ocean.

B.K Research Association for E.S.P. Amit or Roger, do you guys have any idea on this?

1)Major Earthquakes (6+) dates (+or-1 day) can be predicted

2)It is difficult to pinpoint location

3)I predict probable dates for 6+ quakes ,without location

4)This is ESP ,(Extra Sensory Perception), which has no base and science or any calculation or even any instruments,so can not be relied

Most i.portant point is ,as per Indian Disaster Act 2005,it is a punishable offence to give all three aspects of Earthquake ie

Date, magnitude and Location

The man ,issuing notice with signature can be procecuted and even forwarding msg is also an offence.

I wonder ,how one dare to issue signed warning

Amit

Anonymous;

Could it happen? Yes

Will it happen? No way to know.

ESP? Nonsense

Roger

Hey outstanding website! Does running a blog like this

require a large amount of work? I've very little expertise in coding however I was hoping to start

my own blog soon. Anyway, should you have any

suggestions or techniques for new blog owners please share.

I know this is off subject however I just had to ask. Cheers!

Hi

No.It does not require a great work neighter coding skill.In fact any one can do it.

But the point is you have to have a topic ,issues, skill,knowledge which you want to share passionately.

You are always working on that field and have some patience

Regards

Amit

Amit;

While reviewing my program I realized I had not answered your question.

So I wrote another program. It doesn't exactly answer the question because the first program worked in days so the odds are for a hit in +/- 24 hours.

Rewriting it is too much work and the odds on a hit are only 1/3 (approximately)

so the new program gives +/- 1 day results.

There were 1763 mag 6+ quakes in 10 years

1576 were mag 6, 187 were mag 7+

324 of the mag 6 quakes were within +/- 1 day from a mag 7+ quake and over 100 km away (to rule out aftershocks)

25 mag 6 quakes were within 100 km and thus aftershocks.

But with a 1/3 probability, 525 of the mag 6 quakes should have been hits.

Roger

Roger

Some points to be noted

1)In 3650 days (ie 10years) there were 1763 quakes. It comes out to be 1 quake in 2 days. or 0.5 quake per day

2)Assuming each 7+ quake is on separatedays,we have 324 quakes in 187 days ( those days of 7+ quakes).

It comes out to be 1.7 quake per day

It necessarily imply that, on 7 + quake days (+ or - one day) we have more 6+ quakes (1.7 per day), than normal odds of 0.5 per day

Thus ,7+ quakes do triger 6+ quakes all over the globe .In other words some dates are prone to major quakes

Amit

Amit;

1) You're forgetting that some days have multiple quakes. The table shows that and counts days with hits so 1/3 is a good average with some years more and others less.

2) is just false and so is the conclusion. There were 324 quakes that were on 7+ days but not aftershocks so you could argue distant triggering but that's useless for prediction because it depends on the fault being ready to go. It's not due to a magic date.

Roger

Roger

1)I have taken 0.5 ie 1/2, is one 6+ quake in 2 days.Where as you say it is 1/3, ie 1 quake in 3 days.

In fact your statement is more favorable

2If aftershocks are not considered in 324 quakes (6+),it will increase if we consider aftershocks also

I could not understand ,why we can not interpret that ,some dates ( when 7+ quake already occured) are prone for 6+ quakes all over the globe

Amit

Amit;

I cannot understand why you do not understand.

There are no magic dates, no lunar influences that can be used to predict quakes.

Your method has failed, year after year.

Roger

Roger

But last month's results and your findings shows something else

Amit

Amit;

Not in the least. You can't be wrong ALL the time.

Roger

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