Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Earthquake prediction for January 2015

hi
 Here are three probable dates and magnitude for the month of January 2015

1) 4th January................6.6

2)19th January...............6.7

3)22nd January..............6.6

 Date window + or - one day

Magnitude window + or - 0.3


Amit


19 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
More specific time and Moon ,Sun Locations at that time are

1)5th December.....04.50 UTC
sun...22 d south...113 d east
Moon...18 degree N....67 degree west

2)20th December.....13.15 UTC
SUN...21 d south....17 degree west
Moon...15 d south..17 degree west

3)21st December.....20.00 UTC
sun....20 d south...117 d west
Moon....12 d south.....100 d west

These are the locations of sun and Moon at that time. The prone area are locations ( + or - 30 degrees)
The locations at opposite side ie + 180 degree are also prone
The fault lines ,if comes , is most vulnerable
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've found an error in my counting program.

When you made only 3 predictions for October I agreed to discard the first prediction in each group for that month but instead my prrogram was discarding the last one.

I've rerun the calculation and now I have 292 hits out of 450 predictions, diving me a 0.649 hit ratio to your 0.533 so I'm even further ahead - by chance

Now I see you've made only 3 for January so which one of mine shall I discard since yours cover the whole range?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is exlusively up to you.
I often doubt bugs in program ,so I sometime prefer physical checking
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I have again checked our October dicussions.It clearly shows the last date to be deleted (since month was already started)
My three days of January 15 covers only nine days and not complete month
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I make more errors by hand than my programs could ever make.

Your 3 predictions for Jan cover the range pretty well.

I'll eliminate the first one of mine again for no particular reason.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
sorry.There is typographical error in my first comment.
The month should be January 15 , which is wrongly wrtten as December
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Newzland quake on 5th December 2015 ( 5.7 /6.3?)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
More important about to days NZ quake is ,it is caused by unknown fault????!!!!!!
Now ,how on earth plate tectonics justify this quake.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Nothing that big on the NEIC lists.

Possible new fault or bad location.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

6.6 in Panama today.

You missed it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Nothing on the 19th

Another miss.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

6.8 in Vanuatu.

Hit for both of us.

I'm still ahead - by chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
One more hit. 6.8 quake on 23rd.
6.5+ hit
Is this just a chance?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, just chance and I'm ahead - by chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Let us see. Will check after six months.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The 5th month is almost over and you're so far behind you can't catch up.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Currently you have 9 hits out of 18 predictions while I have 298 hits out of 540 predictions.

You can't win even if you get 4 hits in February.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Where are your February predictions?

You've already missed a 6.3 today.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roge
Yes. You are right. I was out of town and attending my sick uncle in remote village. Sorry.
Nevertheless, You know my rules and guideline for predicting quake.
see that, we are approaching Full Moon, Mercury is closer and changing direction and opposing Moon. So ,I would have given date 3/4th February.
Moreover Jupiter is very close and Moon will oppose Jupiter on 4th
Amit