Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, September 30, 2017

earthquake Prediction for October 2017

hi
 Following are the probable dates for major earthquakes for the year 2017
1) 4th Oct 2017............6.3

2)10th Oct 2017..........6.8

3)19th Oct 2017.........6.4

The window period is + or -1 day


Amit

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Almost 6.0 in japan

AMIT said...

Hi
Watch date hit accuracy.
6.3 quake on 10th, at Chile.
Is this a fluke?
What are the chances of a 6+ date hit prediction?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes it's a hit.

Your current score is 1/4 predictions, 1/5 quakes.

Below chance.

Odds on a 6+ globally are quite high. There are a lot of them.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
6+ quakes are once in three days,ie 33%,. A date hit is 100% ,
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Actually, odds on a 6+ quake on any given day are 0.044 based on a study I just did for 6+ quakes from 1900 to mid-2017.

That's a long term average so any given year could be much higher.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I repeat;

One of your 3 predictions is correct but you missed 4 of the 5 quakes so far.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Here ,one more 6.7 quake at Bouvet Island region
Two major quakes ,date Hits ,on a single day. Do you still think it is a chance?
I repeat,some dates are prone to major quakes,
Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your current score is 1/2 predictions correct, 2/6 quakes correct

Yes, it's just chance.

You could get everything correct and it would still be just chance.

It's the long term average that counts and yours is below chance

Your method is wrong.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your current score is 1/2 predictions correct, 2/6 quakes correct

Yes, it's just chance.

You could get everything correct and it would still be just chance.

It's the long term average that counts and yours is below chance

Your method is wrong.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
One more hit
6 quake at Tonga to day ie 18th Oct 2017.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that's a hit.

You have 3/7 quakes and 2/3 predictions correct at this time.

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that's a hit.

You have 3/7 quakes and 2/3 predictions correct at this time.

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Miss today a 6.0 SW of Africa

Now you have 3/8 quakes correct with 2/3 predictions correct.

Below chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Final score is 3/11 quakes, 2/3 predictions

Below chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correction;

3/11 quakes

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

oops! Another quake today.

Now 3/12 quakes, 2/3 predictions.

Worse and worse.

Roger