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Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Major quakes for June 2010

hi
In June 2010 ,following date and time are prone to major quakees as well as other natural disasters like volcanic eruptions and /or cyclones
1)6th June 2010-----0530 Hrs (IST)-----6.9
2)12th June-------- 1630 Hrs (IST)----- 7.2
3)19th June------- 1130 Hrs (IST)------6.8
4)26 th June--------1700Hrs (IST)-----7.1
please watch
Regards
Amit

36 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My list shows one for 5th of June.

Is that wrong?

How do you want magnitude handled?

So far I've been ignoring it and considering all your predictions to be the same, either all 6+ or all 7+.

If I take your stated value you will miss all of them. If you want a +- 1 unit range you'll get more hits but they will be meaningless. 5-7 range quakes happen all the time.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
In fact I am expecting two quakes one on 5th and another on 6th. Also 19th I have added(which will get confirmation depending upon cycle quake of 12th)
It is difficult to predict exact Magnitude. Nevertheless I would like +or- 0.3 magnitude to be considered
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Is there any way to get a "Show new posts" tab on this blog?

It's tiresome to have to search all the threads for new posts and greatly increases the chances of missing something important.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have seen the prediction record given on skywise site.I wanted your openion on the calculations given by him.
A copy of calculations id given here with.
------- ------- ------

The final results have been compiled, all hits are now "confirmed".
Please see the links below to see the list of confirmed hits.

Here are the final score results:


List Generated: 2007/10/16 5:58:51.546
NEIC data: 2007/10/16 5:33:42.000

Magnitude range: 4.00 - 10.00
Distance range: 0 - 1000 kilometers
Predictions: 5489 (total number of predictions made so far)
Prediction Hits: 3688 (number of predictions with at least one hit)
Total candidates: 18952 (total number of quakes within the magnitude range)
Total hits: 17450 (number of candidate quakes within range of a prediction)
Candidates missed: 1502 (number of candidate quakes missed)
Hit/Candidate Ratio: 92.075%
Hit/Prediction Ratio: 67.189% (predictions with hits vs total predictions)

regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Do you have any idea of 6+ prediction accuracy of Skywise
dart board?
I see no use of predicting quakes of 4-4.5 and claiming accuracy.
Why I am asking is,because the method of dartboard is completely cahnce based and if his prediction crosses my accuracy of 6+ prediction ,I amy have to think seriously about my tidal theory
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Do you have any idea of 6+ prediction accuracy of Skywise
dart board?
I see no use of predicting quakes of 4-4.5 and claiming accuracy.
Why I am asking is,because the method of dartboard is completely cahnce based and if his prediction crosses my accuracy of 6+ prediction ,I amy have to think seriously about my tidal theory
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
pl see Skywise prediction accuracy below.He uses even + or - 3 day window for quakes of as low magnitude as 4-4.5

--- --- --- ------

occurred: 2006/ 4/21 21:57:59.70 61.02 165.92 4.40
predicted: 2006/ 4/18 21: 7:00.00 56.87 167.60 471.9 km

occurred: 2006/ 4/21 21:28: 0.04 37.72 20.77 4.00
predicted: 2006/ 4/18 21: 7:00.00 36.13 22.36 226.6 km

occurred: 2006/ 4/21 21:22:27.92 -3.14 147.40 4.50
predicted: 2006/ 4/19 21:16:00.00 -3.61 142.92 500.6 km
predicted: 2006/ 4/18 21: 7:00.00 -7.45 155.27 995.4 km

occurred: 2006/ 4/21 21: 6:17.83 60.85 167.04 4.70
predicted: 2006/ 4/18 21: 7:00.00 56.87 167.60 444.2 km
-*--------- ----------------
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

His predictions were a hoax designed to show how meaningless getting hits really is.

FYI, predictions should not overlap. It confuses the probability calculation.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
All that I wanted was the percentage accuracy as calculated with your stringent norms and with same set of rules
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I can't score his predictions with my program because it's designed for independent predictions. Skywise's windows never close so he catches 100% of the quakes in each area.

But since the probability is 1.000 his score is 0.000

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
please note cyclone PHET and series of tornedoes in US on 5th and 6th June 2010
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Means nothing.

You can find something bad happening on any day if you add enough things to consider.

Roger

Mr. Tony said...

Come on Amit, be serious, this is a miss. Roger is right.

Mr. Tony said...

Amit, you should distinguish bad weather effects from earthquakes as they are different nature events and you did not count those during the year. How many bad weather events did they occur in 2010? Very hard to quantify. Really I would agree this is a miss.
Remi

AMIT said...

Tony
1) Bad weather and series of tornadoes (40+ ?) are two different things.Yes ,You can say this was a miss ,as there was no quake more than 6.
2)I will explain how cyclones and tornado is also a part of tidal force theory
Tidal force acts on all layers
a)Lava
b)ocean water
C)Earth crust
d)Atmosphere
If at a given time, high tide forces are acting on x-x axis,low tide will be observed at y-y axis (90 (degrees apart)
At x-x axis there will be chance of quakes or eruption depending upon crust,as there is internal pressure
At y-y axis ,there will be low pressure created due to low tidal forces acting on it. The moment ,place moves away from low tide force ,high pressure air rushes to fill the partial vacuum,which in turn create tornado.If the air rush through ocean at 26 to 28 degree temperature,it gathers momentum taking energy from latent heat of ocean water and creates cyclones
Time and again I have noticed that, the day of quake is also prone to volcano eruption as well as cyclone
soon , I shall post the list of my quake dates predicted so far and co relation of cyclones
Amit

Mr. Tony said...

Hi Amit,
Shame as I was expecting a strong earthquake too as we had Saturn and Neptune and Chiron in the game. But maybe what affected the result was the Lunar apogee on June 3rd.

Mr. Tony said...

We have had no 7+ quake since the 27th May. For 9 days now we have had no quake greater than 6. I think this is a particularly quiet period in view of the fact the we expected to have 7R as Saturn went station and Neptune and CHiron. I guess the fact that the moon was apogee and the sun on the 6th being Aphelion did not help. Eclipse on the 11th and Jupiter Station on the 23rd next.

Mr. Tony said...

I predict that the 18th June we should get a 7 R as we have moon opposite Neptune and Chiron, and we have moon equitorial crossing. Also on the 19th we hav moon square sun.

Mr. Tony said...

Another date to note is 26th June with Mercury perihelion Mercury opposite moon Lunar Eclipse Moon Max South. I expect some activy here.

Mr. Tony said...

Earth Aphelion 6 July

AMIT said...

Mr Tony
Here are two dates of recent past which proves co relation of these natural disasters
1)14th April 2010-chna quake,Iceland eruption and west bengal(India) cyclone(at least 100 people were dead
2)25 April 2010-6.5 quake at Tiwan,6.1 quake ate Indonesia,Tornedoses at Mississippi,Louissians, Arkansa as well as cyclone at Asam (India )
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Tony
7.4 quake at Vanuattu and Pakaya ,Guatemala eruption were both occured on 27/28th May 2010

AMIT said...

Tony
some prediction aand actual quakes of 2009
predicted ----------actual
9.5.2009 ,6.6-------10.5.09 , 6.1
17.5.09 ,6.8-------16.5.09 ,6.5
18.5.09,7.2--------miss
13.06.09,7.0--------12.06.09 ,6.0
16.06.09 ,7.2--------16.06.09 ,6.1
20.06.09 ,7.1--------miss
22.06.09 ,7.4------23.06.09 .6.7
13.10.09,7.0---13.10.09,6.5,6.0,6.4
amit

Mr. Tony said...

Hi Amit,
In 2009 we have had 19 Earthquakes of >7 Richter. Assuming a 3 day window, we have 122 3 day windows where eathquakes occur, so roughly we have a 16/122 random chance = 13% chance to get it right randomly.
In 2009 you got only 7 right! (Are you sure?) This means 7/122 worst than random. Something is wrong.

Roger Hunter said...

Mr Tony;

Yes. His theory is wrong.

Roger

Zyxzz said...

Amit:
This is a very good hit.
One more for your record.
Congratulations!

Magnitude 7.5
Date-Time

* Saturday, June 12, 2010 at 19:26:50 UTC
* Sunday, June 13, 2010 at 01:26:50 AM at epicenter

Location 7.748°N, 91.938°E
Depth 35 km (21.7 miles) set by location program
Region NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
Distances 155 km (95 miles) W of Mohean, Nicobar Islands, India
440 km (275 miles) SSW of Port Blair, Andaman Islands, India
1155 km (710 miles) SW of BANGKOK, Thailand
2775 km (1720 miles) SE of NEW DELHI, Delhi, India
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=110, Nph=110, Dmin=619.7 km, Rmss=1.18 sec, Gp= 58°,
M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source

* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID us2010xkbv

AMIT said...

Zyxzz
Thank you very much.All that I would like is to save some human lives .
We must look the theory with open mind and without prejudice
regards
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you were looking with an open mind you would have abandoned your theory long ago since it clearly fails the test.

Roger

Boyko Iliev said...

1)6th June 2010-----0530 Hrs (IST)-----6.9
2)12th June-------- 1630 Hrs (IST)----- 7.2
3)19th June------- 1130 Hrs (IST)------6.8
4)26 th June--------1700Hrs (IST)-----7.1

Amit, what these numbers mean?
Boyko Iliev-Bulgaria
http://earthquake-prediction.hit.bg

AMIT said...

bokyoo lliev
These number means
say sr no 2)
-prediction date is 12th June 2010
-Time predicted is 1630 Hrs Indian std Time (UTC+5.30 Hrs)
and
-preducted magnitude is 7.2 in Ritchered scale
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Andaman quake of 6 and 36 tornadoes in USA (Minesota ) on 19th June 2010
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
once again a hit
6.9 quake at Solomon island today ie 26th June 2010 as predicted
need anymore proof?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, a lot more.

Quakes in that location are very common.

But what matters is how your total results match chance results. And so far, you are worse.

The occasional hit is to be expected. In flipping coins you should be right half the time.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Now ,at least to prove your point that my predictions are below average,you should give some dates
with equal numbers of date hits.
If you can not do that,it means there is something wrong with your average calculation methods
One which is theoretically correct
should prove practically.
Every time you ask me to prove the date hits. Now ,after series of date hits, onus is on you to prove practically, that ,you or any body can give equal number of date hits
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've done that several times already.

What does it take to convince you?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have never seen any dates given by you. As these are all flukes or out of the hat dates(as you call them) , one need not be a earthquake predictor to give some dates
regards
Amit