Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Earthquake prediction for September 2016

hi
 Here are the probable dates for major (6+) earthquakes , with window period of + or- one day

1) 2nd September 2016......................6.3

2)10th ..............................................6.4

3) 17th ...........................................6.7

8)23rd.............................................6.6

9)29th...........................................6.5

the dates are for major quakes , however it can go go up to 7

Amit 

119 comments:

Raquel Whitla said...

Any of these for christchurch

AMIT said...

Dear Raquel
The locstion can not be pin pointed as of now.
Amit

AMIT said...

Dear Raquel
Oh no. A 5.7 quske at NZ today
I hope all is well with fellow citizens
Amit

A Thompson said...

Didn't cause any damage as far as I know.. does it count as a hit??

Anonymous said...

Predicting days without place is absolutely useless.

Every day there's an earthquake somewhere!

Your earthquake predictions are just a shot in the dark.

AMIT said...

Dear Thomson
No.It can not be called a hit .But is close call.

Dear Anonymous
No. 6+ earthquake do not occur on daily basis.Yes.less than 3 quakes occures daily.
Before the location is pin poined,let it be proved thst,quakes do follow some rules and can be predicted with fair amount of accuracy.once that is done...location can also be predicted
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
A 7.1 quake at NZ .Yes a hit.
Any one have any doubts on my prediction?
Wake up USGS
wake up NZ seismology
wake up NDMA(National Disaster Management Authority)India
Amit

A Thompson said...

Yeah that 7.1 woke us up! We can still feel nd hear the quakes...scary!

Anonymous said...

Nice work Amit, spot on, again
Tom

Anonymous said...

R we going to have anymore big ones in Gisborne

AMIT said...

hi
Normally aftershocks do occur after such a major quake.
As per my theory, major aftershocks may occur after 24 Hrs ,and seven and half days and some times even on 14th /15th day.
Idea is to be careful after exactly 11th to 13th hour and on 7th as well as 8th day of major quake

AMit

AMIT said...

need to watch 24th hr and 7th /8th day after major quake

Raquel Whitla said...

When ever I here there's a big earthquake it's the depth I take notice of because you can have a 7 and be 100km deep and feel nothing or have a 3.8 and be 3km deep and really feel it go's borne was lucky that was not on land and

AMIT said...

Hi
strong quakes at oklahoma and california to day ie 3rd September.
Yes ,Oklahoma quake is less than 6 ,nevertheless it is one of the largest in recent past
Wake up USGS
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/09/03/492517062/earthquake-rattles-oklahoma-one-of-strongest-recorded-in-state
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Hi will there be any in auckland u love I'm pukekohe

Jessica Clark said...

Hi there will there be any in auckland

AMIT said...

Dear Jessica
Sorry for late reply.
Location of quake can not be pin pointed as of now. It is not accurate enough to publish.
Besides,as per Indian Disaster Act 2005,publishing all three aspects ie date,magnitude and place for a quake is a punishable offence
Thanks for being with this blog
Amit

Shaynaz Woksam said...

I think we are in for a big one....this month will bring the big one....

Jessica Clark said...

Thanks for that when is next one suppose to predict

AMIT said...

Dear Jesica
The next major(6+), quake will be on 10th Sept (+ or - one day).
Location can not be pin pointed..However,as per my theory of major afershocks ,wherever
a major quake(7+) occurs,an aftershock occurs on 7th or 8th day.
Thus , North of NZ is prone to a major afershock on 10th
Regards
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

I'm on the north west side of Auckland lets just pray it not a major one fingers cross

Jessica Clark said...

Hi so will there be an earthquake this coming Thursday 10th of September yes or no and what area please

Jessica Clark said...

I'm heading not yay

Jessica Clark said...

I'm gessing not yay

Jessica Clark said...

I'm heading not yay

A Thompson said...

Jessica read the reply.. earthquakes cant be pinpointed to a location.. there is a high chance of an aftershock on the dates Amit mentions, most likely in the same area as the main shock epicentre

A Thompson said...

Im waiting for north america to have a M7+

AMIT said...

Roger
Everything alright? Not heared anything from you. Little worried about your health.
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Everything alright?No post since couple of days.Little worried about your health
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
How are you?Little worried about your health
regards
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Thanks

Jessica Clark said...

No earthquake yet more worried for my children

AMIT said...

Jessica
It is good. Do not worry .Nothing will happen.There are all chances thst,I am wrong.
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Hope so let the 10th be a good day

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No worries, my health is as good as can be expected at 81.

I've just been busy preparing a house for sale.

Roger

Amy Gray said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Amy Gray said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Amy Gray said...

5.6 in nz and 6.something in aus just now =S
...good predictions...

Amy Gray said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AMIT said...

Amy Gray
Yes.
However,I thing one more is expected.
(Place not known)
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

6.7 south of nz today

Jessica Clark said...

Hope next one happen in a 100 years time

AMIT said...

Jessica
I think it is 6.1 as per USGS records
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Ok well it the 10th today nothing majors happn yet

GORDON BENNETT said...

So you've "predicted" an earthquake every week. Add to that 2 days either side and that's 5 days of the week an earthquake could occur. So we have twenty days out of 28 a quake could occur. It's not even guessing is it?

AMIT said...

Gordon
It is one day on either side and not two days
Amit

AMIT said...

Gordon
You can see the past 6+ quakes and date hit predictions.
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

There was nothing for the 10th

AMIT said...

Jessica
A quake of 4.7 for NZ ON 9th.
However we have two 6+ quakes
6.1 on Macquarie Island on 8th at 21.46 UTC
6.1 at Peru to day
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Today was a hit. You made five 3 day predictions so it's 15/30 days, a coin toss chance of success.

Roger

Jessica Clark said...

Still never felt nothing

Jessica Clark said...

Still felt nothing and I'm glad guess I can plan my daughter 5th birthday nextweekend

A Thompson said...

Jessica, the chances of getting an earthquake in Auckland is extremely unlikely

Jessica Clark said...

Thanks let's just hope it dont

Jessica Clark said...

I'm in south Auckland area

Jessica Clark said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jessica Clark said...

When is next earthquake predicted for and what area please

AMIT said...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/sciencefair/2016/09/12/full-moon-high-tides-earthquakes/90259216/Roger
Pl check.

seismologist now believe full moon can trigger big quake.
I go far beyond this one aspect and hence more accuracy

Think out of the box
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

White island volcano has erupted does that got to do with earthquakes

AMIT said...

Roger
Here is one more gor you.
How do you explain this.
Major quakes triger quakes in minutes at plate boundries not related to each other
Amit



AMIT said...


Jessica
yes.Earthquskes and eruption are related,as per my theory.
Basic theory is..
There is semisolid magma inside the earth crust.Hightides and low tides occur inside the esrthcrust like one in ocean
If the pull of hightide is more than critical it breaks the earthcrust and quake occurs.
If the pull can tear open the fault completely and lava comes out it is an eruption

Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Ok thank u

Jessica Clark said...

When is next big earthquake predicted for nz

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your theory is wrong.

The magma you envision is not a liquid, it's under too much pressure. It moves but not rapidly.

It does become lava but that's when the pressure is reduced due to buckling of the overlying strata.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is your seismologist ,who say that,the tidal pull of moon can cause major quakes
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Ken rings

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'll need a link to an article stating that. My work says otherwise.

There was a 6.0 you missed today.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your score so far:

2/5 predictions correct so far

2/5 quakes were in windows so far.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is misguiding.It should be like this
I have predicted 5 dates for this month
out of which 2 dates have gone and both (ie 2) dates are hit.
We are waiting for 3 more dates to come...

These are the correct wordings
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
You can see Google News with tooic Earthquake...and you will find several articleson hightides and quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I see a few there on the subject but none are as simplistic as what you are doing.

All of them appear to be clutching at straws IMHO

Roger

Jessica Clark said...

So when is the next 1 predicted

AMIT said...

Hi
6.o quakes at Vsnuattu and Indonesia on 17th.A date hit prediction
Amit

A Thompson said...

I thought it would be closer to a 6.7 like mentioned??

AMIT said...

A Thompson
Yes. May be.window closes on 17th Sept 12 Midnight UTC
Amit

AMIT said...

Rather on 18th MN

AMIT said...

Rather on 18th MN

AMIT said...

Rather on 18th MN UTC

AMIT said...

Rather on 18th MN UTC

Jessica Clark said...

When is the next big earthquake for nz please

A Thompson said...

2 hours left Amit lol..mind you, there is alot of activity are Indonesia..something to watch

Jessica Clark said...

Full moon tonight in new zealand

Jessica Clark said...

When next big earthquake in nz please

A Thompson said...

Does our interplanetary magnetic field tipping from north to south have anything to do with tectonics?? Or coronal holes, planetary alignments etc??

AMIT said...

A Thompson
My theory is based on Gravitation pull and change of momentum of semi solid magma inside the earth crust. Like high tides and low tides in ocean ,there occurs high tides and low tides inside the earth crust.On certain day when the pull exceeds certain limits,and it happen to be a weak crust or fault line ,it breaks the crust and hence quakes.It break open completely ,it is an eruption.
It takes into consideration the changing position of major planets and their peak declinations.
Full Moon,New Moon.Moon at perigee(closest),Moon and major planets at max declinations Moon joining,opposing or squaring major planets are also considered
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

We had till noon 17th September nothn happnd

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your theory is wrong. Magma doesn't move that fast and if an upward pull was responsible faults would open up but in fact most quakes are from plates sliding horizontally.

If you throw in enough indicators something will be happening at any given moment.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes.There are rwo aspects.
opening up....like in eruption
sliding one over other
Now, when pull avts there also occurs crust tides.This has been proved by none otger than seismologist. When the upper cust is pulled ,making little more clearaces betwen the two,the lower one slides....and hence quakes
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Earth crust tides could be as high as 25 cms.
I would like to go a step further and statw that the tidal pull acts at all levels
oceans
magma
Earth crust
even Atmosphere

Some of the cyclones and cloud burst are attributed to this
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Sorry.There could be some typo errors.
I am down with dengue fever and advised complete bed rest.Uploading this from my moblile and from my bed
Amit

A Thompson said...

Does dengue fever stop you from spelling?? Haha get well soon Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Take care of yourself. That fever is nothing to play around with.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
Pl watch 6.4 quake at Japan to day ie on 23rd September .A date hit 6.4 quake prediction. Any doubts?So far all dates of this month (and even previous month) are hit.
Wake up USGS,wake up NZ Seismology,
Wake up JAMA,wake up NDA
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

Hi when is next earthquake predicted for nz

AMIT said...

Jessica
It is not possible and even advisable ,as per law to predict all three aspects ie date, magnitude and location for a quake.

AMIT said...

Jessica
It is not possible and even advisable ,as per law to predict all three aspects ie date, magnitude and location for a quake.

AMIT said...

Hi
One more date hit prediction
6.3 quake at Philippines on 23rd Sept
Keep counting
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Score so far this month:

4/8 quakes in windows = 0.5

15/30 days in windows = 0.5

Notice the similarity?

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Let me put facts
Total 6+ quakes are 9.
Out of which 5 are in window period
and sixth one just 2 hr out of window
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I stand corrected. I missed the quake on the 10th

but 2 hours out is still a miss.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is 5/9 and not 4/8
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

The difference is not significant.

Still chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Two more today.

4 quakes in one window; that's impressive.

4/5 windows correct so far.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is sad that, seismologists some time wakes up and study (only ) correlation between major quakes and moon phases.(which is only partially true) and decided it is all wrong.
Wake up USGS,wake up NZ Seismology,wake up JAMA,wake up NDA
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes but you are studying many more bodies and you are usually wrong too.

This month is an exception but those happen by chance too.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Take previous month
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Take all of last few years.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok for September there were 5 predictions and 14 quakes.

4/5 predictions correct = 0.80

9/14 quakes in windows = 0.65

15/31 days = 0.48

Better than chance but not by much.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
How can you count the date ,which is yet to come ?
It is 4/4 ie 100%.Let fifth date pass as a miss ,then and onky then it is said as 4/5
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Count it as my prediction

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
???????

AMIT said...

Roger
???????

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

4/5 windows correct so far.

You missed a 6.0 today so 9/15 quakes in windows so far

Roger

AMIT said...

http://www.9news.com.au/technology/2016/09/30/15/17/experts-predict-destructive-earthquake-will-hit-japan-in-next-30-yearsoger

experts predict massive quake in Japan in nexy 30 years.

what a joke!!!!!!!!!!
What is the use of such prediction.
want people to be awake and alert for 30 years???
Stop such predictions.Do dont create panic ,if you do not know anything
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Those are not predictions, they are forecasts and are most useful for things like building codes.

No sense spending a lot on extremely strong building methods when the largest quake likely in 100 years is a mag 4.5 for example.

Roger

Jessica Clark said...

4.4 hit Wellington nz

Jessica Clark said...

4.4 hit Wellington nz

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

score for Sep 2016

4/5 windows correct, 7/12 quakes in windows

Roger