Can earthquakes be predicted?

Total Pageviews

Search This Blog

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Earthquake Prediction for the month November 2014

hi
 Here are the probable dates for 6+ quakes
1)4th November 2014............6.3
2)7th/8th ...............................6.4
3)23rd....................................6.5
4)28th...................................6.4

window period + or - 1 day
magnitude window    + or - 0.3

7th /8th means from 12noon UTC  7th to 12 Noon UTC 8th

Amit

29 comments:

AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AMIT said...

hi
pl note quake of 6.2 on 3rd Nov at Mid Atlantic ridge

The previous one was 7.1 on 1st Nov 2014 at Fiji

The point here to be noted is the difference in the data by two web sites regarding Perigee of Moon.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

and

http://astropixels.com/ephemeris/moon/moonperap2001.html

one says Moon is closest on 1st Nov 2014 and the other site says it is on 3rd Nov

This is how I missed 1st Nov quake
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I use only the NEIC solutions.

There were 2 6+ quakes on the 1st of Nov so I have 14 hits and you have none.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That 7/8 business confuses me.

We're using a 3 day window so noon 7 to noon 8 is one day, noon 8 to noon 9 is a second day, noon 6 to noon 7 is the third day. That makes the window lopsided.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake on the 6th so I have 28 hits and you have one.

Percentage wise neck and neck 1/4 and 28/120. Just chance either way.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake on the 10th. I have 30 hits to your one.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's actually 41 hits out of 120 predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
so it is hardly 30%.Well below 80% mark.so that it can be said -anybody can predict quakes-
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's over 33% so far compared to your 25%.

Chance is beating you this month.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's over 33% so far compared to your 25%.

Chance is beating you this month.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

7.1 quake today. You missed it, many of mine got it.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
yes. I misjudged, Moon Jupiter combination
Nevertheless, it follows the rule of 7and half day pattern

7/8th ,(14/15th Nov) and 23rd Nov
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
In fact it is series of cycle quakes starting from
1st......6.0 and 7.1
7th.......6.6
15th......7.1
Hence the next could be 22nd /23rd/24th


to be more specific
1)22nd.....12.32 UTC
20 degree East to 20 degree west
160 degree east to 180 degree east

2)24th...8.17 UTC...
80 degree east to 110 degree east
80 degree west to 110 degree west

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you predict 3 day windows 7 days apart you will be correct - about half the time because that's how many days are covered.

It's also possible to be totally wrong or totally right because only half the days are covered.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You often,misinterpret what I say,
First and foremost thing required is a potent combination
Once a quake strikes (or eruption occurs) on that potent date, 7 and half day cycle quakes stars
However,this is not a permanent phenomena ,once the potency of combination becomes weak( often in 3 to 4 weeks),cycle quakes stops

Whenever another potent date arrives,second round of cycle quake starts
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your potent dates do not work and a 7 day cycle is too regular.

Another researcher in Greece use the fibonacci series in a similar fashion and that makes more sense as aftershocks are frequent early on and taper off with time.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am not talking of aftershocks at the same place.
Cycle quakes can occur anywhere depending upon the line of resultant pull acting on Earth at that time
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok but you wouldn't reject a mag 6+ aftershock would you?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Two more 6+ quakes today bringing my total up to 59/120, almost 50% to your 25%.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
wait. why so much haste. We are here for at least six months records
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just keeping up to date. We're 2.5 months into it already.

Looking at past posts I see you wanted 6.2+ quakes, not 6+. Do you still want that limit?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
it is 6.1 and above
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note today Japan earthquake and accuracy of my prediction.
predicted date 22nd Nov at 12.32 UtC 6.1 and above and at 160 to 180 E.
Actual quake Date ,time and magnitude match exactly .Place is 20 degree away
watch the accuracy.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Mag 7.0 in Indonesia today (26th)

Score is now 30 with 4 each, a perfect score by chance.

You missed it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I see they've downgraded that 7.0 to a 6.8 but no matter, the score is still the same.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes . Sometimes for covering two triggers ,I select a date which is in middle of two triggers and hence some errors.
Hence forth I will stick to the date of trigger itself
As for example .
On 26th Mars is at Maximum Declination and Joins Moon which is closer.
And Moon at Perigee on 27th at 23.11 UTC.
However to cover both triggers Moon at perigee on 27th and Moon at Equator on 29/30th ,I selected 28th
Nevertheless, I still expect one mor 6.1+ quake between 27th to 29th

Note-
I will be busy attending my wife ( who is to be operated for hernia on 28th) from tomorrow till 3rd or 4th December.
Hence,may not be able to post till 4th/5th Dec
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No problem.

Best wishes for your wife.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
Mount Asho in southern Japan erupted on 28th/29th after 22 years ,posing threats to nearby Airports
Now, time and again I have mentioned that ,as per my theory Earthquakes and Volcanic eruption are interlinked.Explaination given below
In a nutshell my theory says Quakes and eruption occurs due to pressure builtup on magma/lava due to tidal pull beyond certain limits.
As the tidal pull creats hightides and low tides in oceans, it also creats hightide and lowtide pull on the magma/lava below the earth crust.
If the pull acts over fault line a quake occurs and if it acts on Volcano mouth it can rip open the volcano mouth and eruption occurs.
Both occurs due to the same tidal pull.
If some of the internal pressure is released due to eruption ,the quakes may be of smaller intensiry.
So my predicted dates are prone to eruption also
In fact,extended version of theory suggests cyclones can also be linked to the dates
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The mantle is not liquid. The pressure of the rock above prevents it.

Your theory is wrong.

Roger