Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, March 13, 2010

There are two cycles of quakes ,as already mentioned in my blog
(1)When any planet changes the motion from direct to retro gate or vice a verse first cycle comprises of Moon Joining, Opposing or squaring that planet
(2) second cycle comprises of Moon joining ,squaring or Opposing the Sun in the window period of 15 days (both side) when (1) above exists

If there are more than two planets changing the direction in a short span of 3/5 days there will be even three separate cycles
In this case of more planets changing direction within short span,the quakes will be huge
Now , our case of 11.03.2010 pl note that Mars have changed the direction on 10.03.2010 and Moon directly opposing the the Mars.This date specifically selected for this reason well in advance (January 2010)
Now ,further on 15 .03.2010 we have New Moon, Moon opposing fastest moving Jupiter ,and Mars is picking up he acceleration, yhere will be yet more quakes.

I would suggest one exercise
Find the concentration of major quakes on both sides of such dates when Jupiter,Venus ,Saturn and Mars are changing the directions. The magnitudes will be in descending order from Jupiter to Mars.Mercury is having less mass and hence less pull can give quakes up to 6.2 or so
Also find the dates in past when both Jupiter and Saturn were changing the direction in a short span and major quakes in window period or say cycle dates in window period
There are on an average 6 such dates excluding Mercury when directions are changed.What actually happens when major planets changes the direction is ,it either breaks or accelerates the momentum of magma inside the crust and thus creates imbalance inside the crust.Moon,with highest pull acts as a triggers when such changes in momentum exists. Moon moves 1degree in 2 Hrs and hence accurcy expected (maximum) is +or - 2 Hrs.And this is why place can not be pin pointed. In 4 Hrs Earth moves both ways ,in Orbit and around axis giving a miss to the predicted place. Moreover, sometimes , if the crust is weak ,say a plate boundary than quake may occur earlier i.e.before full potential pull generates.
regards
Amit

33 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's a testable idea.

But since it's your theory, you should be the one testing it.

Prepare a list of all such times for the last 10 years and see how well it works.

Post the results for all to see.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
I have already worked on it. It work with fairly good accuracy
I have data not in soft copies and need some time to publish
regards

tanya said...

sir
i am really impressed by your theory and has sufficient substance. i live in punjab, india and we had experienced earthquake today of 4.3 magnitude. is there any further chance of tremors here and what about its seriousness. in case there is i have an old grand mother i will have to take precautions . plzz guide me

AMIT said...

Tanya
please...please ,do not worry. I can not predict the places correctly.The idea of this blog is not to make people worry, but to spread awareness for the theories other than,accepted plate tectonic.
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What size quakes do you think are caused by planets changing direction?

Which planets do you think are involved? Surely not tiny Mercury or distant Pluto?

I've looked at all 6+ for 2009 comparing them to the planets and very few quakes are found on those days.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

For 2009 there were 108 quakes of mag 6+ in 365 days so the odds on any randomly chosen day having a quake is 29.6%

There were 19 instances of planets changing direction that year and 6 of those days also had a quake. That's 31.6%

The difference between 29.6% and 31.6% is not statistically significant.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
1) Mercury gives less significant quakes up to 6.2 or so (maximum)
2) Uranus .Neptune and Pluto are not considered for major quakes
3) Jupiter, Venus ,Saturn and Mars are considered for such momentum change(in descending order).
A slow moving planets have bigger window period because it akes ore time to pick u acceleration or retardation
4) What we should look for is a date in the widow period of planet changing direction and at the same time Moon Joining ,opposing that planet as one cycle.
Like on 10.03.2010 Mars has changed the direction but the cycle date is 11.03.2010 whenn Moon directly opposes Mars. Moon
with Maximum pull is essential as a trigger for major quakes.
Without Moon aspecting Major planet(changing he direction ) or Sun ,major quakes will not occur .
so,what we should look for is not the dates when major planets changes the direction but also ,at the same time (in a span of 15 days)Moon making strong aspect (0,90 or 180 degrees)with them or Sun.
regards
Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That won't do. With a 15 day window you'll always find the moon at a 90 degree multiple.

Remember too, as the window gets larger the odds on a hit get correspondingly larger.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I added the moon's position and the retro/direct planet's position and the angle between them to nthe 2009 listing.

None of the 19 cases had a moon at any of the critical degrees.

I'll be glad to send you the list so you can check it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I added 2008 to the list with nearly identical results.

The problem is that with over 100 mag 6+ quakes per year we're having one every few days so a 15 day window is almost certain to capture one or more.

You focus on the hits but can't explain the misses. The reason is that there are far fewer planetary stations, so even if the big windows catch some they won't catch all.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
I am watching the date 18th March 2010, as a cycle date of 4th and 11th March 2010.As Iam not sure of it triggering 7+ quake,this observation is treated as academic and future prediction purpose
we have quakes on 4th as well as 11 th, this date is kept under observation
regarding your quaries ,I am compiling data for 2009 (7+) quakes
regards
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
There is some misunderstaing.
1) 19 days are of planets cahnging the direction and not Moon occuping any critical position
2)15 days window period does not mean all 15 days
I will give one example
a) let us say ,to day ie on17.03.2010 planet Jupiter cahnges the direction
b) Find out the date before this date when jupiter and Moon are at critical angles(0,90 or 180 degrees) say 15th March 2010.Now,
15 th March ,7.5 days and 15 days before and after 15th March will comprise of one cycle. Thus in all 5 days will be there in one cycle.
c) Now find the date when Sun and Moon are at critical angle before 17th March .second cycle will comprise of Sun and Moon at critical angles say on12th march,before and after 7.5 and 15 days .
d) Thus in all,total 10days will be critical for one major planet changing the direction
e) there are on an averaga 7/8 instances when major planets cahnges direction (except Mercury).
f) Thus ,there are 70 odd dates for major quakes (7+ as we are considering Mercuruy for 7+ quakes )in ayear.ie 20% dates
regards
Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No matter how complicated you make it, the results will be the same.

The number of quakes in your windows will be determined by the percent of time covered by the windows.

Do you want to consider only 7+ quakes?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Latest results:

2008 6+ 114 qks 6 hits 16 dates
2008 7+ 11 qks 0 hits 16 dates
2009 6+ 108 qks 6 hits 19 dates
2009 7+ 14 qks 1 hits 19 dates

Here a hit is a same day event. Bigger windows will give more hits but of less value.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My current program shows for each day of a chosen year any quake of the right size,any planet going retrograde or direct, the angle between the planet and moon for that day and the sun-moon phases.

Getting the moon-planet angle for a 15 day window is a bit much at the moment but it brings up an interesting question; can the window be either direction from the station date?

If so, what you have is really a 30 day window which is bound to include a couple of sun-moon critical angles and one or more 6+ quakes.

Thus you have a can't miss system for catching quakes, since it covers every day in the year.

And is also worthless for predictive purposes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
Some of the major quakes
1)09.03.1957, Alaska ,9.3
saturn changing Direction on25.03.1957,Moon opp Sat,sun 90Degrees Moon,Jupiter 90Degrees Moon
2)12.012010 ,7.0,Haiti,Sat cahnging on 15.01.2010,Mercury on 16.01.2010,Sat 90 degrees Moon
3)04.04.1905,Himachal pradesh,8.0,
New Moon ,Venus Merc,Mars changing direction in first week of April 1905
4)26.01.2001,Bhuj,India,6.9,Jupt chaging on 25.01,sat on 24.01.2001,Jupt Sat 0 degrees and both square to Moon
5)26.12.2004,Sumatra,8.9, Full Moon,merc changing on 20.12.2004,Sat closer to earth,Earth closer to Sun,Merc closest to earth
6)02.04.2007,8.0, Soloman,Jupt on 04.04.2007, Sat on19.04.and Full Moon
7)15.01.1937,Nepal,8.3,New Moon, Venus changing on 24.01.0934
8) Chile,27.02.2010,8.8,(predicted date on 28.02.2010, though it is nearly 20 Hrs off prediction),Full Moon on 28, Mars changing direction on 10.03.2010, Mars closest to earth
regards
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
major quakes will not occur on the date of plnets cahnging the direction. There are two resons for the same
1) on the date of changing the direction , the planet will be standstill. It is essential that, it picks up speed and haence change the momentum (mass of magma*velocity) in additiona we have accelaration here when we get rate of change of velocity. On the date of changing the direction the momentum is either 0 or very less.
2) Critical position of Moon is essential for major quakes. Hence, when Moon acquires critical position either with the planet or Sun ,the quake will occur
regards

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
something about window
unlike the regular window term, where window period means, any date is a hit day inside the window period,I have specific dates inside the window and not whole span of window perod.
It may be clear from above post that, window period is essential for planet to pick up the accelaration or retardation.Thus ,here we ahve window dates and not window period
regards

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Talking with you is like shooting at a moving target.

Every time I think I understand, you change it.

I guess my best approach is for you to post the critical dates for 2008 and 2009 including any ranges you think appropriate. That way I'll have a fixed target to evaluate.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

OK, I applied your rules to mag 7+ 2008 and found no hits.

I also checked the quakes against your posted dated and found no hits.

Care to explain?

I'd like to send you my program output but I don't have the address.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear roger
thank you very much sir. You can send me any detail or program out put to my e mail
amitjdave@yahoo.com
regards

JV said...

When I saw that bright full moon, so close to earth the day after the quake I wondered if the moon could have something to do with what had just occured.

A group of scientist did an extensive study here in Chile and in fact last year they published the results of this study, stating that the their was a seismic gap in the ConcepciĆ³n(Chile) area and concluded that this area was mature for a earthquake of a magitude 8.0 to 8.5 in the near future.

(http://www.geologie.ens.fr/~vigny/articles/Chili-Concepcion-Eq-1-UK.pdf)

Boy, were they right!

That said, could the tides (thus the moon) play a role in triggering the earthquakes?

If I'm correct the megaquake on the 27th of feb happened during a Proxigean Spring Tide?

Looking at the times of aftershocks the tides also seem to interfere.

Here's a page with data on tides in Chile:

http://www.shoa.cl/servicios/mareas2/index.php

I'd be interested in if Roger can find any correlation between times and dates of aftershocks and tides.

For the ones I looked at there does seem to be some evidence of aftershocks occuring closer to high tides compared to the low tides.

Best,

Johan

Roger Hunter said...

Johan;

The only studies that have shown any tidal influence on quakes have found very slight effects on shallow angle thrust faults.

There was a slight increase in small events at low tide, presumably from the lesser weight unlocking the fault.

Roger

AMIT said...

Dear Roger
there were 12 quakes ,more than 7.0 in 2008 (not 11 , I thaink you have not considered 12.04.2008 ,7.1 quake)
1)20.02.20008,7.7,8.08 GMT.Sat sq
full moon on 21 st,Mercury changig direction on19th,Merc opposes Moon on 21 st, Moon 0 deggrees to Sat on 21 st
and Lunar eclipse on 21 st. The quake was at 1.0 pm IST, the in accuracy of theory is 12 HRS
2)25.02.2008,7.2, 8.36 GMT
Sat Sun 180,Merc Venus 0,Merc chagimg on 19th. ( I agree,this is not enough to trigger 7.2 quake)
3)20.03.2008,7.2,22.32 GMT
Full Moon , Equinox,Merc opp Moon, Venus opp Moon,
4) 9.04.2008,7.2,12.46 GMT
Moon clodest (57 AU), Moon at exreme declination, Sat sq Moon, Sat changing on 2.05.2008 (though this is more than
window period- (I am still not confirm about slow planets accelaration,retardation and window period)
5)12.04.2008,7.1,6.30 GMT,
Jupiter fasrest,Jupt opp Moon (7 degrres dif),Moon sq venus
6)12.05.2008.7.9,6.28 GMT
PREDICTED 13.05.2008
jupt chg on 9.05,sat joins Moon, on 13th,first Moon,,Sat chg (changing)on 05.05.2008.
7)30.06.2008,7.0,6.17 GMT
Sat sq Moon, (5degree) Mars sq Moon, Moon closest (57.0 AU),Jupiter closer (4.1Au ,closest is 3.9Au)
8)5.07.2008,7.7,2.12 GMT
Jupiter closer (4.1Au0,venus fastest,venus opp Moon,Moon at extreme declination
9)19.07.2008,7.0,2.39GMT
Full moon on 18 Morning,venus opp Moon, Jupter closer(4.1 Au)
10)29.09.2008,7.0,15.19 GMT
New Moon, Jpiter chg on7.09.2008,Merc chg on 24.09
11)16.11.2008,7.4,17.00 GMT,
PREDICTED DATES 20.11 AND 21.11.2008
Moon closest ,Moon at extreme declination,Jupt opp Moon on 17th,venus opp Moon,
12)24.11.2008,7.3,14.00,
Earth closest to Sun,Jupt sq Moon,jupter faster (12 '-fastest is 14'-4")-truly speakng ,this is not astrong combination to give
7.3 quake(predicted for 21.11.2008 was 6.2)
regards
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Yes ,I agree that claiming less than 12 Hrs accuracy is not correct.
That is because ,two things has to happen simultaneously for major quake
1) Strong pull/momentum change (basic requirement) has to be present.
2) The resultant pull created by 1) above to act on weaker section/plate boundaries
If the resultant pull is not acting on weak section,it may not create quake immediately
(ie +or - 1Hr),but wait for some times ,till weak section comes directly under it.
As any location on Earth invariably comes under high tide pull once in 12 Hrs.(because two high tides in a day) ,such wait or pre-pone quake should not be more than 12 hrs.
All those quakes with more than + or - 12 Hrs accuracy may be ,in principle, treated as inaccuracy
In fact,I am still trying to fine tune the prediction, year after year(2009 may have some more accuracy and so on)
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

IF a window happens when Venus, Mars, Jupiter or Saturn turns direct or retrograde and the moon forms a 90 degree multiple aspect within a day either side of the planet's station

AND a hit happens when a quake of mag 7+ falls within that window

THEN 2009 has no hits although there were 12 such quakes that year.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

By that definition, 2008 had no hits despite having 12 quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
you are considering only one cycle ie planet (changing direction )and Moon.Howver,another cycle of Moon with Sun in the same period need also to be considered.This comprisses Fuul Moon ,New Moon and firstand last Moon.
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Those phases are already marked so I can tell you that 2008 had 3 same day hits and 2009 had 2 same day hits.

There are 49 phases per year so you have a .214 chance of getting a hit.

So 2 or 3 hits out of 12 tries is not a significant result.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I checked your dates for 2006 and 2007 with similarly dismal results.

Your method does not work.

Roger

Zyxzz said...

Amit, I would like to performe some exercices, could you please point me in the right direction to get tools or programs needed.

Thanks!

zyxzz.

AMIT said...

Zyxzz
If you are talking of prediction, I am not using any special tool or software. I use only daily planet positions and movements,for predicting quakes.
If you are talking of cross checking the predicted dates, you can use -USGS- web site to know actual date wise quakes
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Now you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit