Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, December 23, 2010

Accuracy of earthquake predction for the year 2010

Here is the results of my earthquake prediction

During year 2010 ,ie 1st January to 22nd December the results are as follows
1)6+ quakes occurred--165
2) number of date predicted-45
3) Window period + or - 1 day ,ie 3 day window
4)% of time of the year under window period--37%
5)37 % of total quakes is --61
6) Actual 6+ quakes in window period is ----77
7) Number of hits --37
8)Number of misses----8
9)% of hits---82%
If we consider only one quake (6+) per day from NEIC records, total dates on which 6+ (at least one ) occured is ---118 only insted of 165 with muliple quakes per day.

please see my web page

Thus ,it is well above average quakes


Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, As you say lets look at your posted basic stats. To do stats you may need to do hypothesis testing etc. But lets look at your percentages here.
There are 122 3 day slots in a year.
165 quakes occurred in the year 2010.
You predicted 45. (27% of total occurred), very low percentage which tell us that the link must be incomplete and there is a lot more to earthquakes than this link you aspire for a start. ...OK...lets proceed....
Lets see how good you were when you actually made a prediction even if the predictions are a small part of the destructive quakes.....
You are predicting 37% of the window period. So lets see how good you were in this window....
You should have predicted 62 earthquakes. (although we had 77)
you had 37 predicted....8 misses..
% hits = 37/62=60% success not 82%.
% misses=13%.
Now le us compare your record with RANDOM dates.
The problem is that RANDOM selection is BETTER because 118 quakes (one a day worst case) occupy 122 slots in a year.
so random % of success is 96%. Better than yours.
Now lets look at comparison of the success in your time window compared to random again we have your success is 60% and random is 45 3 day slot and randomly you would have had predicted 44 quakes more than you have...The stats AMIT are not agreeing with you.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Amit I type fast and make lots of typos......Regards, REMI (Not Amit)

AMIT said...

For probable dates of 7+ quakes ,theory and FAQs,please see my this (latest) blogs and my web page

Next probable dates are January 18/19 and 25/26 for 7+ quake

4:46 AM