If we consider major earthquakes,7+,for prediction accuracy for the year 2010,it would be like this
1) There are 45 dates predicted for 6+ quakes.(some of them stated as 7+ also)
2)There were 22 quakes of 7+ in year 2010 (till 26th December 2010)
3)7+ quakes occured in window period of prediction are 12.
4) odds of getting 7+ quake in window period of + or - one day ( ie 3 day window ) is 0.18
Now ,if we consider 8+ quakes,there is only one 8+ quakes on 27th February (chile).The date predicted was 28th february 2010. so ,it is in window period.
what is odd of getting 8+ quake in 3 day window?