Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Monday, December 27, 2010

vanuatu,japan region and chile major earthquakes predictions

hi
If we consider major earthquakes,7+,for prediction accuracy for the year 2010,it would be like this
1) There are 45 dates predicted for 6+ quakes.(some of them stated as 7+ also)
2)There were 22 quakes of 7+ in year 2010 (till 26th December 2010)
3)7+ quakes occured in window period of prediction are 12.
4) odds of getting 7+ quake in window period of + or - one day ( ie 3 day window ) is 0.18
Now ,if we consider 8+ quakes,there is only one 8+ quakes on 27th February (chile).The date predicted was 28th february 2010. so ,it is in window period.
what is odd of getting 8+ quake in 3 day window?
regards
Amit

3 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Based on one 8+ per year the odds are about .008.

However, you made 43 predictions, any one of which might have caught the quake so your chances of success are 0.344

Roger

Anonymous said...

Yes I think 1/122=0.8% for 8+
You made 45 predictitions so 45x0.8% = 36.8% chance of randomly predicting 8+

Anonymous said...

Amit,
To help you out on the numbers. Assuming binomial distribution, or Poisson but the difference is small between them, (and a problem here is that the events are sequential and not simultaneously occurring, so much better to use probabilistic approach, but that is another discussion) then for the 7+ case, where p=0.123 per year, 3 day slot,
then
P(1 success) = 20.3%
P(2 successes) = 27%
P(3 successes) = 22.7%
P(4 successes) = 13.58%
etc etc
So if we get 4 correct 7+ in a year this has prob of 13.58% according to a Binomial Distribution...Hope this helps.
Remi