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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Iran,Japan region and Philipines Earthquakes on predicted date ,21st December 2010

hi
please note three major quakes on the predicted date of 21st December 2010
Iran---6.5
Japan region--7.4
Indonesia---6.2
Are these by chance? or fluke?Let us be open about it.Can plate tectonic explain such clusters of major quake,on given date and on different plate boundries?
In fact averaging out of major quakes (6+) ie 140 odd in a year is misleading. Earthquakes occurs in clusters. If I give 40 odd dates in a year for 6+ quakes and with window period of + or - 24 hrs ,my average will be too high
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Amit

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi David,
You talk of stats as if you have shown any. You cannot convince that this is not astrology unless you do STATS. I see NO stats here and when people ask you to present the stats for all those 16 years you claim to be doing data collection you refuse. I am afraid you seem to be playing politics in here and not science. I regret. No stats and no maths you will convince the illiterate old women only.
Regards,
Remi

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
You said in your web site....
t is also not correct that, the theory is only based only on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the change in Momentum (mass*velocity ) of the molten magma due to either change in direction of the major planets or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction (apparent) from direct to Retro gate or retro gate to direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role to accelerate or retard the momentum........
The change in speed is not real it is apparent to the EYE. What should this have a real speed change and hence momentum?
When the planet is direct say, then station and then retro, the only thing changing between Earth and the Planet is their distance. The speed change due to their Elliptical orbit has to do with Perihelion and Abhelion points, which do not coincide with the apparently station point. So I am bit confused as to what your explanation is as change in momentum does not seem to appear, as their orbit speeds are not changing much AT the time of Station. The speed change looks big in your website simply because it it the DIFFERENCE in speeds of perihelion and abhelion, which has nothing to do with STATION point.
Pleas explain.
Thanks
REMI

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
You said in your web site....
t is also not correct that, the theory is only based only on tidal forces. It also takes in to account the change in Momentum (mass*velocity ) of the molten magma due to either change in direction of the major planets or extreme speed of the planets. This occurs when planets change their direction (apparent) from direct to Retro gate or retro gate to direct.. Extreme speed of the planets also plays an important role to accelerate or retard the momentum........
The change in speed is not real it is apparent to the EYE. What should this have a real speed change and hence momentum?
When the planet is direct say, then station and then retro, the only thing changing between Earth and the Planet is their distance. The speed change due to their Elliptical orbit has to do with Perihelion and Abhelion points, which do not coincide with the apparently station point. So I am bit confused as to what your explanation is as change in momentum does not seem to appear, as their orbit speeds are not changing much AT the time of Station. The speed change looks big in your website simply because it it the DIFFERENCE in speeds of perihelion and abhelion, which has nothing to do with STATION point.
Pleas explain.
Thanks
REMI

AMIT said...

hi
One more 6.3 at Japan Region. I am aware that ,this may be termed as after shock and may not be counted as hit.
However, as per my theory all quakes 6+ pre and after shock occur with a sequence and hece to be counted
AMit

AMIT said...

Remi
A list of predicted dates is already posted on my blog for the year 2010 ( date 10th January 2010)
Any one can check the accuracy of these dates (with window period of + or - 1 day ) with NEIC records. and see whether it is below or above odds/averages
Alternatively ,after 2010 I shall post complete analysis of my dates vis a vis actual occurrences
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, I am glad you will post real statistics and not Micky Mouse hit and misses when the slot boundaries are fixed and not arbitrary around the hit date when it suits us. I am not sure however the physics of the retro moves with change in momentum is understood. In fact it maybe wrong. Thats why I ask you to explain better what momentum changes are there in basic calculations at least. It is important.
Thanks again
Remi

AMIT said...

hi
During year 2010 ,ie 1st January to 22nd December the results are as follows
1)6+ quakes occurred--165
2) number of date predicted-45
3) Window period + or - 1 day ,ie 3 day window
4)% of time of the year under window period--37%
5)37 % of total quakes is --61
6) Actual 6+ quakes in window period is ----77

Thus ,it is well above average quakes
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,

That result is due to a number of reasons. 1) perigee /apogee
2)Full Moon New Moon,
3) Tides
4)Saturn Mercury Jupiter Venus stationary
My point is you mix them all.
The explanation effect is 1) SIMPLE GRAVITY
2) Momentum changes

1) 2) and 3) is undestood from eons
and it is not new and it is not the core of your website.
BUT Stationary Saturn Jupiter and Venus IS different.
BUT it there is no physics behind it that explains it.
At least that I know of from here.
Either you undestand the mechanism at least descriptively if not with Maths or you dont.
That you avoid.
As far as the stats above average for tides has been proved by Cochran et al recently and there is plenty of references within.
So I am afraid there is A LOT to be done here Amit to get this right. You are NOT methodical. I am not trying to discourage you but the physics behind it needs to be clarified. Tides are understood angular momentum issues with stationary planets which are not stationary really needs to be worked out.
Regards,
Sincerely
REMI

Anonymous said...

Finally your answer to all the above is look it works! Well full moon perigee is known already and I dont think this is the issue here. The majority of the quakes you count for ARE full moon and perigeee type and tidal which I think is NOT central here.
Just ISOLATE the new thing which is STATIONARY and develop the PHYSICS for it.
It is like a Russian Salad as it is currently your work here where all together we get something above average but we dont know why.
Kind Regards,
REMI

AMIT said...

Remi
So,you agree that,earthquakes occur due to full Moon ,New Moon and Moon at perigee?
But Plate tectonics dose not say that.it is only the stresses build up on plate boundaries.
We(plate tectonics) also agree that,Moon quakes occurs due to Earth tidal force.But we(plate tectonics) are not ready to believe that ,Moon could be Main trigger in inducing major quakes
In fact Earth tidal pull on Moon is far less than Moon tidal pull on Earth.
This is because tidal pull is ot simply gravitational pull,it is differential gravitational pull.
As the size of Earth is much more ,the differential pull is more on Earth.
First let plate tectonic supporters and seismologist believe that, Moon is the main trigger,when other potential combination exists.
Amit

Anonymous said...

Yes I agree. I have agreement there.
Most 7+ have this effect.
BUT I am not clear about Saturn station although there is evidence. Do you have references on momentum change during retro -station-direct? That bothers my mind.
Are you on skype?

Anonymous said...

Amit, see this...
http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/files/Science_Express.pdf

Anonymous said...

tides are due to moon mainly. So moon will trigger tides and tides quakes as has been proven statistically.

Anonymous said...

So,you agree that,earthquakes occur due to full Moon ,New Moon and Moon at perigee?........yes I do and this is not a problem as perigee gives large tides too!

Anonymous said...

and this....http://earth.eo.esa.int/workshops/fringe09/proceedings/papers/p1_24kans.pdf

AMIT said...

hi
But all Full Moon ,New Moon or all perigee do not give major quakes? Any body have ever have such queaon?
For Full Moon ,New Moon and perigee to work ,certains basic things required
1)Major planets changing the directions. If two or more changes in short span ,a major quake occurs.If both changes direction in the same direction (ie direct or retrogate) quake could be major
2) Distances of planets changing the direction.The closer they are severe the quake
3) Aspects of major planets (0,90,180 or 270 degrees among each other
4)Moo at equater or at extreme declination
If these are present (not necessarily all )Full Moon ,New Moon and perigee can give severe quakes
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
Yet another quake(Alaska 6.2) during the window period of 21st to 23 rd December 2010
So ,now total five 6+ earthquakes in window period
Amit

Anonymous said...

But all Full Moon ,New Moon or all perigee do not give major quakes? Any body have ever have such queaon?

In fact here I disagree. As I have all the data of the strongest quakes 7.5R-8.0R and I see no other reason but prigee apogee full moon
for example
7.7R 6 April 2010
7.6 R 7 Oct 2009
7.6R 10 Aug 2009
7.8R 15 Jul 09
7.9R 19 Mat 2009
7.7R 5 July 2008
7.8R 9 Dec 2007
7.8R 15 Aug 2007
7.5R 21 Jan 2007
7.7R 27 Jan 2006
7.5R 26 Sep 2005
and many more are explained as such. In fact the stationary planets are the minority.

AMIT said...

hi
I will take the first ne ,say 6th April 2010
1))No full Moon or New Moon,8th day of cycle,so neap tide
2) Moon at apogee on 9th April,hence moon is far away
However
1) Jupiter is fastest
2) Saturn is faster
3) Pluto changing the direction 7th April 2010
4)Moon joins Pluto on quake day,which is also changing direction
5) Moon at extreme southern Declination
Thus ,there is no full moon ,new moon or moon at perigee,even than quake of 7+ occurred
AMit

Anonymous said...

How do you find the speed of the planets you refer online? Which site has all those together? Thanks
Well if Moon is apogee then you can have stress released due to relaxation .... no need to be perigee apogee also could be said to have physics. ....

AMIT said...

hi
Normal Ephemeris give daily positions of planets.From this we can find out daily speed of the planets. Planets move faster when they are closer to Sun. Moon moves faster when it is at perigee
Say today ie on 25th December 2010, moon is closest (perigee) and fastest.This may have induced Vanuattu quake of 7.3 to day (25th )
please see my web page mentioned below.Look for links.there are various links
like Ephemeris,planet distances, phases of Moon,apogee,perigee,tides,sunspots etc

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
Fastest speed f planets are
Moon---429 minutes
mars--46 minute
mercury--131 minutes
Jupiter---14 minutes
Venus----75 minutes
Saturn----8 minutes approx
Apogee may give less tidal pull,but it does not induces quakes
AMit

Anonymous said...

Well i know all this. I was wondering if someone knows the daily speed of planets rather than the min-max.
Well done on your prediction.
The point about apogee I think for apogees I think can give quakes because it is like if something is stressed from a perigee then it relaxes to normal hence it creeks and quakes returning to normal AFTER being compressed.... I have dates of quakes when moon is apogee.

AMIT said...

hi
Yes .Apogee can give quakes ,but they may not be 7+. Moreover for apogee to give quakes other strong combination must be present, because at apogee Moon will be at minimum speed also
Amt

AMIT said...

hi
As far as relieving the stress during apogee My idea is like this
Tidal pull (with momentum change ,of the molten magma is the main cause of major quakes. The tidal pull on earth crust would be not considerable.It is the thrust of high tidal push from below the crust ,that causes the quakes
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
You said,....1)Major planets changing the directions. If two or more changes in short span ,a major quake occurs.If both changes direction in the same direction (ie direct or retrogate) quake could be major........................
However, you must know as an engineer,that ONLY COUPLED systems affect each other. Angular momentum changes on Saturn due to changes in Saturn speed in its orbit around the sun, may affect the earths momentum ONLY when SUN and EARTH are a coupled system.
The sun and Earth couple ONLY due to their MUTUAL gravitational forces. Since SATURN and EARTH are WEAKLY affected by mutual gravity as we all know, the PERIOD of the transferring of energy between them is LONG (often this is called the 'beat-length')

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, you say.......As far as relieving the stress during apogee My idea is like this
Tidal pull (with momentum change ,of the molten magma is the main cause of major quakes. The tidal pull on earth crust would be not considerable.It is the thrust of high tidal push from below the crust ,that causes the quakes..........
Well it is clear that this is what you WANT. But you MUST prove it with MATHS. Otherwise .....sorry to say ...oblivion.

Anonymous said...

More important Amit, in order for angular momentum to change, one really needs to COUPLE to another body spinning or nowt. COUPLING means it needs 2 forces forming a torque. in opposite directions. Here gravity is ONE force and one force alone does not form a torque....so how can we change angular momentum with gravity? Where is the coupling?

AMIT said...

hi
Keeping aside detailed calculations , if you agree that ,my prediction are above average or say something more than random dates selected out of hat, we can proceed further
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

OK Amit,
If we keep aside the calculations, it means one must prove statistically. To do stats properly there needs to be METHOD and HYPOTHESIS, in order to identify link. If A causes B and B causes C and D and you try to find empirically with statistics the link of A to D it is possible but you will not understand it as stats identify a link but not the physics behind it. I know the Physics maybe complicated.

AMIT said...

hi
In this blog dated January 10th 2010, the dates for complete year were already posted. Anybody can check these predictions w.rt. NEIC records
Also a result was published on 10th June 2010 blog for the year 2009
please chek
AMit

Anonymous said...

AMIT, you keep going on and on about planet direction changes...Planets do not change direction (retrograde, station) they keep orbiting in the same orbit and spin. When you say planet is station it is an illusion to someone on earth. So changes in momentum are not significant unless proven. The physics you said you dont understand so lets leave it and concentrate on stats.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
I am also talking of relative speed of planets with respect to Earth and not absolute speed( for the person looking from outside the Earth)
The vector angle of gravitational pull and hence tidal pull (ie differential gravitational pull ) changes.when planets changes the direction. This makes momentum of molten lava to chamge and hence ,distturbance inside the crust
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit,
Differential pull? Say Saturn and Earth at perigee. What is their differential pull? Is it not max? At retro, we established that it is not perigee. I expect the largest differential pull at perigee but the largest quake is surprising at station.....your explanation does not add up as a tidal wave, anyway we saw that the moon offers max tide even if it is inside the magna or just ocean.......am I right?

AMIT said...

hi
Now you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit