Earthquake prediction get more accurate
Please see the link below ,which states that,the prediction of quakes ,by various methods is 10 times more accurate than random dates.
The competition results announced by National Academy of science in September 26th issue,stated that ULCA researcher Agnnes Helmstetter was considered the winner with highest probability
http://www.dailydemocrat.com/news/ci_19003677
The question is -
HOW CAN WE SAY IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EARTHQUAKES?
OR
IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO GO BEYOND RANDOM DATES ,AS FAR AS EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IS CONCERNED?
Amit
5 comments:
Amit;
I haven't seen the paper in question but I must point out that 10 times better than chance may not be significant if the chances are low enough.
Roger
Roger
I could not get your point.
For example, 8+ quake chances are one per year. ie 1 /360 odds.
Now ,10 times better is 1 in 36.
If ,I give 36 dates for a year and get 8+ hit or if give 12 dates with + or - one day window period and get a hit,it is not enough?
Amit
Roger
Some more details you can get from this link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/26/california-earthquake-project-scientists_n_982129.html
Amit
Respected Amit Sir , Roger Sir
I think that good news is only 18% good as they are taking 5 year duration for location prediction ( which is 90% accurate for 5 mag + quakes only in California ! ) . So it is long way to go for them , not that great yet to consider it as correct predictions ( not even 25% ) . It seems that NASA could have listened to our theories , which will give them 70% correct prediction for duration within 3 to 5 days and magnitude 6+ ( Amit Sir ) and 7 mag ( Santosh )
Time is running out as year 2012 will have the "Big one" quake ! will NASA listen ?
best regards
Santosh Phadnis
Bangalore, India.
____________________
Respected Amit Sir , Roger Sir
I think that good news is only 18% good as they are taking 5 year duration for location prediction ( which is 90% accurate for 5 mag + quakes only in California ! ) . So it is long way to go for them , not that great yet to consider it as correct predictions ( not even 25% ) . It seems that NASA could have listened to our theories , which will give them 70% correct prediction for duration within 3 to 5 days and magnitude 6+ ( Amit Sir ) and 7+ mag ( Santosh )
Time is running out as year 2012 will have the "Big one" quake ! will NASA listen ?
best regards
Santosh Phadnis
Bangalore, India.
____________________
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