Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Earthquake prediction for October 2012

hi
 Probable dates for major quakes ( for October 2012) could not be posted till date. However, from the balance days two probable dates are posted here with

1) 19th October 2012-----0130 UTC---------6.8

2)29th October 2012------1600 UTC--------6.2

This time I have given probable time in UTC to check time predictions also

In norma course my prediction have time window period of + or - one day and magnitude window period of  + or -  0.3
Place not specified
Amit

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

The leaving of the negative region continues, a similar pattern should continue till at least the 20th.

Could give times that stand out, but with so much times of interest would be never ending.

People should be on alert for possible heavy activity over the coming days.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

^^^ spot on !

Tim

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

This trend is set to continue into at least the 22nd, the 20th is showing some quite heavy movement into the 21st with 7 of the 10 connections being pulled to one positive region, then releasing a couple into late morning of the 21st, then to and through till the end of the 22nd.

Im sure we will know one way or the other the intentions of this region by early hours of the 21st.

Cheers Tim :)

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, The next noticeable jump onto this large Positive region is between 17:45-00:50 UTC this evening (21st), with four connections.

This region shall play a large part in this form of prediction over the next few days (25th at least).

People should be aware.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, the morning of the 23rd sees some heavier movement, we see 4 connections jump to a negative region, then back to the large Positive region, all this between 06:00-13:40UTC , other movement happening before also.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Italian Scientists Jailed In Quake Trial

A team of Italian scientists has been found guilty of manslaughter for failing to warn citizens of a huge earthquake in 2009.

The team, along with a government official, were jailed for six years in a trial which has infuriated the global scientific community.

Historic buildings cracked and crumbled in the 6.3 magnitude quake in which 309 died and thousands were left homeless in the town of L'Aquila in central Italy.

But the following year there was another aftershock. Charges were brought against....(Continued here)

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/italian-scientists-jailed-quake-trial-152511905.html

Jazzman :/

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit, what happened to the post concerning today (23rd), would have given warning of the M5.9 japan, and the movement again into this afternoon .

Jazzman:)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

The next noticeable movement is between 09:20-13:30UTC tomorrow (24th).
This heavy positive region remains with us till after the 26th at least.

The 26th is the next date for heavy quakes using my version of planetary alignments.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Jazzman whats happening?

Tony

AMIT said...

jazzman
1) It would be better ,if you give the basics of your theory in nutshell.
2)It would also desible you give specifice date and window period for both time and magnitude
Tony has some similar questions here
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi amit, as you know, i did used to give daily time frames with M rating etc, people were not interested, i got disheartened so pulled my blog.

I still now give a date and time span, sometimes they fall just outside these time frames, hence why i said monitor the haarp magnetometer .

I gave the 26th as my next planetary date, the large positive region continues and i have given certain dates/times and heavy quakes have fallen on them, including the M9 the other day which wasnt posted on here.
I also mention that this region will play a large part over the days up till at least the 25th and it has.

As long as we can give some warning
of possible heavy activity, this is a + .

Be safe Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi amit, at present we have hurricane sandy, the worst storm for 100 years in the US.
It's expected to mingle with the polar air mass and could become a super storm.

Storms like this take masses of power, so at present hard to judge anything.
Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, i just cant ignore the alignments at the moment, should have had a large quake lately, people should be on high alert for a high M6, possible M7.

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Forgot too mention, trying a new form of area coverage, at the moment, southern America, chile, peru, Argentina etc is showing up as possible areas of interest.
19:20UTC

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

jazzman
yes.29th could give some quake of 6+
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here is one 7.7 at queens charrote island to day ie 28 th oct 2012.
watch the accuracy
Amit

Ray Brooks said...

Jazz
an M9 that happened just the other day????? where? There hasn't been an M9 anywhere this whole year.
Sandy is the worst storm in 100 years?? by what account? and yes it expends a tremendous amount of energy...thermal atmospheric energy. Why is this on an earthquake blog?
Ray

Anonymous said...

Ray brooks, a typo, should have been M 5. 9.
My ways of prediction involve data sources that u obviously don't understand, hence why I predict and u don't.
Oh, and have a look at other posts, the one where I gave time and M 7 magnitude and it happened:)

Oh, and on one of the other posts, I mentioned while we are in proximity of Saturn, expect large quakes.

I see this morning, we had a M7.7

Anonymous said...

Mr Amit

U said 6. 2, a 7. 2 is 30 timesheet stronger than this, a 7. 7 is again 15 times stronger than a 7. 2.

Jazzman was nearer the call on this one.

Paul

AMIT said...

hi
Here are some of the probable dates for quakes in first half of November 2012

1)2nd Nov ...............6.4

2)8th/9th (noon to noon UTC).........6.5

3)14 th...........................6.9

Due to lack of time for calculation further dates cold not be worked out

I wish I have enough time for this.Unfortunately no GOVt support earthquake research which says....There are causes of quake other than plate tectonics.
And beaury of plate tectonics is that,it firmly believes quakes can not be predicted.
How on earth with this menal frame are we going to succed?

Amit

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit, shall dig out a couple of programmes for u that should help with analysing, just gotta find them.
Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

Here is a Almanac for sun moon, brighter planets etc http://www.celnav.de/page3.htm

2.0 the newest obviously, some other stuff there too.

Looking for another programe, will mail when i find .

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, here is another program.

http://williams.best.vwh.net/gccalc.htm

This site is great, have fun !

Jazzman:)

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit

I have 09:00 31st-1st Nov 12:00GMT
Using anAlt ernate Theory

The 2nd, moon mars and Jupiter mars opposition, would agree with also.

My 7th should have been 8th to cover Moon Jupiter and moon mercury
on the 8th, and Moon mercury on the 9th

17th

27th November covering Jupiter sun, on the 27th and Jupiter sun, moon mercury on the 26th.
-+ a day using your Method, which is correct (personally)when dealing with such distances, movement etc.

29th-30th has a few alignments

Other dates/times pending

Be safe
Jazzman:)

Anonymous said...

Ps

29th, Jupiter mars, moon sun, moon Saturn oppositions.

Hope them Programs help
Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

I do understand, I understand that a lot of quack theories are published as theoretical truths because there is a 7% accuracy.
Ray

Anonymous said...

Again you still use other planets as a source of tidal influence. Using the laws of physics and assigning the suns tidal force equal to one this is the effective tidal pull of the sun, moon and planets when they are at their shortest distance from earth.
Moon 2.21
Sun 1.00
Venus 0.000113
Jupiter 0.0000131
Mars 0.0000023
Mercury 0.0000007
Saturn 0.0000005
Uranus 0.000000001
Neptune 0.000000002
Pluto 0.0000000000001
The tidal force of venus is nearly 10 times greater than Jupiter yet you still quote Jupiter as a factor.
If you added all the tidal force together (perfect planetary alignment) the tidal pull on earth would not raise the oceans tide more than a couple millimeters.
Using the moon and sun as indicators of tidal pull in earths crust is a good start but I think you are wasting everybody's time thinking Jupiter(or venus which is stronger) all on its own has an effect.
Ray

AMIT said...

Jazzman
Thanks
Amit


Ray
1) My theory takes in to consideration aspects other than tidal pull only.It takes in to consideartion change of momentum when major planets changes direction( Venus,Jupiter etc) and also Moon at Maximum declination .
2) I only understand one thing-
If plate tectonics is the only and perfect theory it should able to predict the quakes. Theory which can not be proved in field is useless.we know atomic energy by theory but what if we were not able to produce atomic power or an atom bomb? who will believe in theory
So I request all those who support plate tectonic as the only theory ,should give probable dates and check
Amit

AMIT said...

Jazzman
I have up loaded the links to my web page
you may find some more on my web page

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and see links
also see calender for probable dates and theory in nutshell
Amit

Anonymous said...

Ray mate, there are certain time when parts of the sun are over 500 time more magnetic than usual, all planets are connected, and influenced by others.

The sun earth connection happens every 7 minutes, switching on and off via a virtual portal.

NASA are to shortly dedicate a few satellites to the cause.

Not even going to get into the planet harmonics with you.

As iv said already, you obviously don't understand higher forces at work so best not band around figures ay .

I love the way the way science "fact" is took as gospel ..... can't have alternate thinking can we.

Thanks Amit, shall take a look :-)

Jazzman;)

Anonymous said...

didn't say anything about "gospel". gravity in physics is a measurable and provable force. Now magnetic influence or other anomalies that can be measured or observed that correlate to a result can be promising. I see a a lot of people referencing jupiter and saturn as an influence but won't reference venus even though it is 9 times stronger than jupiter and 226 times stronger than saturn. I for one see no evidence in large planets having an effect that will overcome the sun and moon. It would be like me touching the cable from a crane that is holding up a 50,000lb weight. I read this among other things to get an insight on others ideas and their research but if we believed everything blindly where would that get us if no one gave an objective point of view. I'm hoping you understand I'm not trying to just argue like a political debate, but I hear a condescending tone in the posts.
Ray

Anonymous said...

amit,
I've never read or studied or seen any science literature that says plate tectonics is the perfect theory that "predicts" earthquakes. Plate theory describes the mechanics of where and how the stresses build up that eventually release. And they are as difficult to predict as would be to predict the path of a leaf through the air on a windy day. It could be said the forces are building more in one area and that area is prone to regular quakes, as to say the leaf will blow that way. But to be able to decipher millions of variables 50+ miles below; hundreds of thousands of miles long would take more effort and resources than there are people and money on this earth. You're looking for a trigger that releases this built up energy along a fault. Whether your predictions are right or wrong quakes happen in relation to a fault line. And even if the trigger could produce better than 2/3 accuracy not giving the location makes the info useless. The weatherman says its going to rain today but doesn't know where. So does that mean all 6 billion of us take an umbrella? Saying a quake will happen tomorrow means the planet should what? stay home and prepare for the worst?
Ray

Anonymous said...

what about the 6.2 early this morning off the coast of alaska. Is that part of the predictions or part of the 80+ quakes in the same location over the past 3 days. Is the 7.7 the only one that counts and all others will happen regardless of the "trigger"? or does the "trigger" influence the after shocks at predictable times?
Ray

AMIT said...

Ray
1) I take in to consideration Venus also.The theory is based not only on tidal pull but also momentum change due to change of direction by planets like Venus,Jupiter...
3)Quakes do occur on fault line. This is because it the weakest point on crust. It is like weak link in a chain ,where it breaks.
The tag line is
Plate boundaries are due to quakes and quakes are not due to plate boundaries.
Yes you are right. What I work on is triggers and stress on the boundaries.Once a major quakes ,aftershocks requires less trigger force
As a test case ,you may notice a bigger aftershock on periodic basis. May be after seven and half days and 15 days
4) If plate tectonics is not intending to predict quakes ,why are we vesting public tax money on big research programs?
Amit

AMIT said...

Ray
1) I take in to consideration Venus also.The theory is based not only on tidal pull but also momentum change due to change of direction by planets like Venus,Jupiter...
3)Quakes do occur on fault line. This is because it the weakest point on crust. It is like weak link in a chain ,where it breaks.
The tag line is
Plate boundaries are due to quakes and quakes are not due to plate boundaries.
Yes you are right. What I work on is triggers only and not on stress on the boundaries.Once a major quakes ,aftershocks requires less trigger force
As a test case ,you may notice a bigger aftershock on periodic basis. May be after seven and half days and 15 days
4) If plate tectonics is not intending to predict quakes ,why are we vesting public tax money on big research programs?
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi all, the only thing that matters is weather a predictor predicts well or not?
Myself and Amit both predicted the 16th, it actually came a couple of days later, which I then revised and called a high M 6/M 7, and it also fell on amits +- structure.
I also called the 30th, we had a M 6. 2 on this day, it also fell on Amits +- structure
I don't even go into tidal influences, I have no time to do that.
My predictions are based on sheer magnetics.

be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Ray, when you. Said about should we stay at home after a call.... , this is exactly why the governments don't predict, life has to go on!

Ya could say predictions are pointless then, but if we had that attitude , many things wouldn't get done /happen

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

The 2 large quakes that happened on the 11th April were not on a fault line, it occurred in the middle of the plate and involved a number of strike-slip faults, meaning the ground on one side of the fault moves horizontally past ground on the other side.
San andreas is also a slip strike fault..

The plate was actually the indo -Australian plate .
Many more large quakes will happen along this.
Jazzman :-)

AMIT said...

hi
6,4 quake(6.1) at philipines on 2nd Nov as predicted.Watch date and magnitude accuracy
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

At 08:10am, the sun looses its connectivity with the moon, mars conjoins at 08:59, Saturn at 09:21
At 19:39(3rd) mercury conjoins the moon
at 00:59 (4th) Saturn losses its connection with the moon,

at 08:11am, the moon conjoins Jupiter, out of interest,lets see if these times have any bearing on things?

Be safe

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

hi
I think next probable dates are 8/9th NOv and 14 th November
I could not understand the term -sun losses its connectivity to Moon-
I suppose whst you mean is Moon going away from Sun after Full Moon clear opposition.
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

Maybe 5th into the 6th , northern hemisphere, tracking a possible cause, shall see how things play out.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi amit, M 7. 4 on the 7th, the next few days could be heavy, but there will be another M 7 coming in a few days time I think.
Be safe
Jazzman :-)

AMIT said...

hi
A 7,4 quake at Guatmala on 7th aaagainst predicted date of 8/9th Nov 12
Dave

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

I think the 25-28th is going to be interesting, with the 26th standing out the most.

Could be in for a hefty quake me thinks.

All in all, it looks to be a busy November

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit

Have a look at December, got some crazy times ahead.

November 30th-3rd Heavy activity M7.5+ possible,

12th Heightened activity

16th Heightened activity

25th-29th again heavy activity, M7.5+ possible .

Plenty of other interest, but theses are the main dates for me at present.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit
We should now see a rise in activity as expected 19: 09 .
Be safe

Jazzman:-)

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit

A M6.6 Shwebo Myanmar, downgraded from M7.

As i said a couple of days ago, expect another M7.

We are in for some heavy activity, on going from now, with extra from late evening on the 12, through the 13th.

You have the 14th, i also have the 17th.

My data sources are suddenly unavailable, personally i would be on high alert!

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Again Amit

We have a jump of 6 connections also between 17:00PM on the 13th and 12:30AM on the 14th, people can monitor the Haarp magnetometer to maybe get some idea of the build up etc?

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Srikanto Bormon said...

They still can't even predict the weather. This is such a waste of money.

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Srikanto Bormon said...

Scientists should spend a little less time trying to predict when we'll die, and a little more time trying to delay or prevent it from happening.

predict science

water pollution

who is edgar casey

cayce edga

are edgar cayce

what is the environment

environment topics

environment

seminar topics

Srikanto Bormon said...

Scientists should spend a little less time trying to predict when we'll die, and a little more time trying to delay or prevent it from happening.

predict science

water pollution

who is edgar casey

cayce edga

are edgar cayce

what is the environment

environment topics

environment

seminar topics