Hi
Following are the probable dates for 6+ quakes in April 19,with window period + or - one day
1) 5th April 2019
2)12th April
3)18th April
4) 25th April
Amit
Following are the probable dates for 6+ quakes in April 19,with window period + or - one day
1) 5th April 2019
2)12th April
3)18th April
4) 25th April
Amit
29 comments:
Hi
A 6.5 quake at South Sandwich Islands today ie 5th April 19, a date hit prediction of 6.5 quake
Now , people at large have to decide ,as to whether ,a series of hit predictions just by chance,a fluke or below average
Amit
Amit;
Quakes so far on 1, 2, 5, and 6
You have 1 prediction correct but only 2/4 quakes.
Just chance.
Roger
Hi
6.1 quake at Japan today ie 11th April 19, a hit prediction
Amit
Amit;
Of the 6 quakes so far only 3 were in your windows.
Still just chance.
Roger
Roger
But you are not mentioning ,both (2 out of 2) predicted dates so far in this month are hit
Amit
Hi
A major 6.8 quake at Indonesia today ie 12th April 19,a date hit prediction.
How many date hit ,6.5+ predictions are required to prove a point
Amit
It's impressive that you are getting thoughts from this post
as well as from our dialogue made at this time.
great publish, very informative. I ponder why the other specialists of this sector
don't realize this. You must proceed your writing. I'm sure,
you've a huge readers' base already!
Anonymous;
If you're talking about Amit then yes, because there is no shortage of fools.
His results are just chance because the forces he invokes are too small to cause quakes.
Roger
Roger
All readers are learnned and respected , no one can be termed as fool, that is unfair.
How much powerful the heat currents , ie convection currents underneath earth crust? We have length ,breadth ,thickness and density of earth crust ,we can find volume and weight of each tectonic plate and can also find out the force required to move it against another plate, what seismologist have never tried to find out the force required moove a plate and that the magma heat current can produce that ?
Buy the way ,the force gravitational and tidal ,which is termed as faint ( by you) , the whole universe moves due to that. The orbital and rotational speed of Earth is due to that only.
Amit
Hi there! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could
get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I'm using the same blog platform as
yours and I'm having trouble finding one? Thanks a lot!
Hi
It is inbuilt in blogspot comments ,permission
Amit
>>> All readers are learned and respected , no one can be termed as fool, that is unfair.
No, it's the truth. Those who follow you are unlearned fools. Do you see any scientists agreeing with you?
>>> How much powerful the heat currents , ie convection currents underneath earth crust? We have length ,breadth ,thickness and density of earth crust ,we can find volume and weight of each tectonic plate and can also find out the force required to move it against another plate, what seismologist have never tried to find out the force required moove a plate and that the magma heat current can produce that ?
There's a big difference between the magma upwelling of hotspots and the tidal forces due to sun and moon, not to mention the planets.
>>> By the way ,the force gravitational and tidal ,which is termed as faint ( by you) , the whole universe moves due to that. The orbital and rotational speed of Earth is due to that only.
Wrong. The orbit is maintained by the total attraction of the sun, balanced against the orbital velocity of the earth. The tides are due to fluctuations in the sun - earth distance plus similar moon effects.
Roger
Hi
6.1 quake at Taiwan today ie 18th April
19, a date hit prediction
Amit
Roger
Tidal pull is nothing but differential
Gravitational pull
Earth's orbital speed is due to balance of centrifugal and centripetal (gravitational)forces
What do you think, what makes earth move in orbit
Amit
Roger
One more ,6.5 at Western indian Antrartic ridge ,today
One more date hit 6.5 + quake
Think out if the box
So many date hits and fluke?
Amit
Amit;
Yes, fluke.
You could have every prediction in a month correct - by chance.
What matters is your performance over a long period.
Roger
Roger
What is my long range performance?ie say for last ten years ?
How much percentage of my prediction are correct?
is if say out 100 prediction how many are hit?
Whether it is below average /odds?
Amit
Roger
One major aspect you are not considering is like this..
If I predict a major quake (6+) and not giving magnitude like exact 6.2, while evaluating the actual quake magnitude need to be considered and not odds of 6
Is say yesterday's quake was 6.5 ,than odds of 6.5 to be considered while evaluating
Amit
Roger
As I do not use any software for evaluation ,I have tried to figure out what you are saying ,by physical check
A) year 2019
To check the position as on this year ,I have taken 1.1.2019 to 18th April 2019 .The results are as follows
Total dates ( windows) for which 6+ quake is predicted.....14
Tial hit windows ,where 6+ quake occured.... 10
Ratio....71.4%
Total quake (6+) in this year ....39
Out of 39 quakes ,18 were covered in my window .
There are total 46 available windows in this year ,till 18th
Now 14windows given / 46 total window ..ie 30.4% windows covered by me
18 quakes in my windows / 39 total quakes...46.1%
Ie by consuming 30.4% windows I have got 46.1% quakes
Now do you think this is below average
Amit
Roger
For your satisfaction one more year
A random year 2011 taken
1.1.2011 to 31.12.2019
Results are
Total dates(windows) predicted..38
Total hit dates(windows)...27
Ratio ..27/38...71.05%
Amit
Amit;
I finally got the quake file fixed and updated but right now I'm tied up on another project.
When I'm able I'll tell you how you did over the longest period possible.
Roger
Roger
Ok
Thanks
Amit
It is 1.1.2011 to 31.12.2011
One year
Amit
Mars quake noticed
Questions for seismologist
Mars is not geologically active and lacks tectonic plates, how than ,a quake can occur without moving tectonic plates?
Why,in the first place ,Mars (and Moon) do not have tectonic plates?
Amit
Amit;
How do you know Mars does not have plates?
We know the moon doesn't; we can see it well enough.
Roger
Amit, can you ask Roger to read the article 'NASA’s InSight Lander Captures Audio of First Likely ‘Quake’ on Mars' on NASA's website where it is clearly written : 'Mars and the Moon do not have tectonic plates, but they still experience quakes – in their cases, caused by a continual process of cooling and contraction that creates stress. This stress builds over time, until it is strong enough to break the crust, causing a quake.' If i'm not mistaken no one in the world questions NASA's space findings and their missions.
Anonymous;
I'll take NASA's word for it but I don't see how Mars could be continually cooling and contracting. As old as it is, it should be stable I would think.
Roger
PS:
The flat earth crowd questions everything NASA says.
Roger
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