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Friday, June 03, 2011

Earthquake prediction for June 2011---6.5+

hi
Here are some dates of June 2011 for major earthquakes(6.5)
For those who wish to check accuracy of predictions ,here are some dates to be observed.
please note place is not predicted

1)9th June-----------------(6.3)
2)12th June----------------(6.5)
3)15th/16th June ----------(7.0+)
4)30th June /1st July 2011--(7.0)
Amit

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ma intreb acum, dacă putem vorbi despre statisticile site-uri - volumul de căutare, etc, am încercat să site-uri pot cumpăra prin adspace - lasă-mă să ştiu dacă putem vorbi despre preţuri şi fleacuri. Noroc mate faci o treabă excelentă, deşi.

AMIT said...

Hi
The translation of your post is

I wonder now if we talk about site statistics - search volume, etc. I tried to buy the sites can adspace - let me know if we can talk about prices and whatnot. Cheers mate doing an excellent job, though.
please contact by e mail
or contact

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
The earthquake dates predicted for June 2011, may (also) witness volcanic eruptions(location is not confirmed)
AMit

Anonymous said...

Hi, do you make your predictions upon Elenin's alignment with the Sun? I wondered if you took these into consideration. I noticed on 6/2 Elenin, Sun and Mercury made an alignment, and on 4/23 Elenin, Sun and Mars made an alignment, in both cases were multiple 6.0+ quakes worldwide. Just coincidence? And there are the infamous Sun, Earth, and Elenin alignments with Japan and Chile megaquakes...

AMIT said...

hi
Elenin is a comet ,discovered by a Russian Leonid Elenin on 10th Dec 2010. On Sept 10,2011 it will be comming closer at 0.45 Au( Astronomical Unit-Average distance of Sun to Earth).
It is an average size comet and takes nearly 10000 years to complete orbit around Sun
As this is an average size comet ,the Gravitational Pull may not be much to induce quakes
No .I do not take in to calculation Elenin for quake prediction
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hey - I am really delighted to find this. cool job!

AMIT said...

Hi
Look here.

http://www.ouramazingplanet.com/st-louis-earthquake-110607-1604/

The news says the 4.5 quake at St.Louis has occurred at a place whee no known fault exist!!
How this can happen?
Even a single quake without (known) fault line can not be explained with
plate tectonics
Any comment?
Amit

Anonymous said...

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Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Simple, we don't know every fault, especially if there's been no recent activity and it doesn't break the surface.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
We have 6.0 quake at southern Peru on 8th June at 3.06 UTC, as expected
watch accuracy
1) Date window---+ or - one day
2)Magnitude -----+ or - 0.3

Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit Sir,

Good. Still please check that there are too many 6+ Mag quakes , so proving the theory by that is difficult. On 1st June 2011, 6.2 quake in chile , then on 3rd June 6.3 mag in Japan and on 5th June 6.3 in WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND and finally on 8th June 6 mag in southern peru !
So you got the problem here , 1 out of 4 quakes were predicted and 1 came correct ( within that week ! ) and so statistic will show 25% quakes predicted for 6 mag for this small sample . I think Roger expects much more which is difficult to match as every year there will be 120+ quakes like these 6 + mag quake.
Now that means in 360 days you will have 120 quakes that is 1/3rd days quakes occurred , Giving 60 dates ( 1/6th of days in year ) you need to predict at least ( 1/3rd number of 6 mag quakes in year ) i.e 40 quakes to show that it was not by chance ! But scientists are NOT counting the duplicate quakes ; so you may loose here some quakes. Further you will be giving only 20 dates and need 40 quakes to happen in that range of 3 days ( unfair to you only ) . Please see that you are trying 99% difficult task.

I hope you like above statistics and will know what trap you are entering into so that you may never prove your theory using 6 mag quakes !
Please discuss this with Roger so that you could be able to prove the theory using 6 mag quakes or not will be clear by him. If it is not, you may not waste your time for 6 mag quakes.
My suggestion is you can prove your theory taking 7 mag or higher mag quakes prediction as number of 7 mag quakes is less and you can achieve your target.
best wishes.

best regards

Santosh Phadnis
_________________

AMIT said...

Roger
I have some questions
1)What is then we are doing in seismic microzonation ? I think we do not consider actual fault lines while preparing a microzonation map
2)Is there any method by which we can find out a fault line ,even though it has not triggered any quake?
3)In case of a fault line of say 10 km length,it is possible to have relative motion of crust on both side of the fault?
4) When quake occurs at small fault line,what exactly happens?
Is there any slip or subduction?
I am sorry Roger,I could not find some answers,that is why I am requesting
Amit

AMIT said...

Santosh
Yes.I am aware this is not enough.
please keep watching till June 2011 end
Thanks
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> 1)What is then we are doing in seismic microzonation ? I think we do not consider actual fault lines while preparing a microzonation map

Sorry, I don't know. Not within my specialty.

> 2)Is there any method by which we can find out a fault line ,even though it has not triggered any quake?

Yes. Seismic exploration, using small explosive charges recorded on multiple surface geophones can detect subsurface faults. But it's expensive.

> 3)In case of a fault line of say 10 km length,it is possible to have relative motion of crust on both side of the fault?

Yes.

> 4) When quake occurs at small fault line,what exactly happens?
Is there any slip or subduction?

Yes or there wouldn't be an earthquake.

> I am sorry Roger,I could not find some answers,that is why I am requesting.

Not a problem. Just understand that I am not an expert on all topics.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Santosh is partly right.

The odds on a 6+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.666 so if you make 20 predictions you would have to get 19 correct to pass the test.

And even then I'd want to see the results for 100 predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger/Santosh
Wait till June 2011 end and see 6.5 accuracy
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The odds on a 6.5+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.295 so you need to get 12 out of 20 correct to pass

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have some confusion
If the odds of 6.5+ on 3 day window is 0.295 say 0.3,it means 3 out of 10 and hence 6 out of 20.
I could not understand how come it is 12 out of 20?
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

With odds of 0.295, 6 out of 20 would be the amount expected by chance.

I want results 99% better than chance before I certify predictive skill.

If you Google VassarStats you can find the binomial probability test I use.

Roger

keoz said...

MY Daughter is 7 years old and she says their will be an earthquake June 13

AMIT said...

Roger
If we want to beat the chance,7 out of 20 is good enough(1 more than random odds) to be stated as above random averages.
If I say ,I have some skill by which I can toss the coin for required result of head or tail.
Now if I toss the coin 20 times,how many times do I have to achieve required results,to prove the point? 10,15 or all 20?
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit Sir,

What I could make out with Roger Sir's expectation is we should be able to predict 2 times better than chance , most of the time over the years.
So for example if you toss coin 20 times and predict that 10 times it will be head ; that is average chance only ! If you predict that there will be 16 times head and 4 times tail ; and actually it occurs as 15 times head and 5 times tail ; you will be close to great prediction.

So obviously 12 out of 20 quake predictions correct will be a great prediction skill. I think 9 out of 20 can be a good prediction skill
( when odds are 0.3 approximately ) .

Yes Keoz's daughter may be right, great quake may be possible around 13th to 17th June 2011 on Earth (15th June most likely , location can not be predicted ), I have alerted USGS scientists.

AMIT said...

Hi
In that case my predictions of 6.5+ is good enough.
please see my 2009 predictions

http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=33253361&postID=366065113581262480

wherein out of 30 dates 12 are 6.5+ hits
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
If we talk of 6.5+ date hits for the year 2009,there are 5 numbers of 6.5+ date hit predictions
odds are 1/8 for 6.5+ date hit ie 1 in 8 and 4 in 32
so out of 30 predictions of 2009, 5 date hits of 6.5+ are above average
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Tossing coins is a good example because the odds are obvious. A coin has two sides and if it's a fair coin, either side is equally likely to face up after a toss. Odds are 0.500 so if you toss 20 times and call heads each time you should get 10 hits.

But in fact, any number from 0 to 20 is possible by chance. The difference is how often it happens.

Now in 20 tosses, if you are right 10 times that would be expected. 11 times would be better than chance, 9 times would be worse than chance. The question then becomes "How much better?"

I require you to be 99% better than chance before I will agree that you have predictive skill (or a crooked coin!). If you pass that test there's only 1 chance in 100 that the result is just luck.

In the coin example you would need 16 correct calls out of 20 tosses to reach that level.

But this is not a linear thing. For 1000 tosses you only need 542 hits.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

For 30 predictions with 0.295 odds you need 16 hits to pass the test while chance is 30*0.295=8.85 or 9

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Please note todays quake of 6.0 and series of quakes at christchurch NZ,as predicted .
The accuracy of prediction is + or - one day
watch the dates till 15/16th June 2011.
PLEASE NOTE-LOCATIONS ARE NOT PREDICTED.Hence no need to worry
AMit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit Sir, Roger Sir,

Good for 6 mag quake prediction.

I had already mentioned that from
13th to 17th June ( 15th june 2011
most likely ), there is a possibility of 7 + to ? mag great quake on
Earth ( location can NOT be predicted ) . At various old places and
one new place ; Earth is showing lot of seismic activity and scientists need to monitor those quakes on land and in sea ! As usual, we may not be
able to save people from such quake
as location prediction is not possible by theory. Second thing, scientists may not be able to
give any alert to people till last
10 seconds remain ( P waves may be
tracked by instruments only 10 seconds before quake, not much useful ) .
Only thing can be done is people in quake-prone areas can stay alert till 15th June 2011 is over at least.

If such quake occurs, USGS will say that it was a chance that you people predicted the range of dates :-)

best regards,

Santosh Phadnis
__________________

AMIT said...

Hi
Yet another 6.5+ date hit on 15/16tth June 2011 at PNG (6.6)
How can we believe that so many date hits are fluke? or by chance? or not above average random dates?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You predicted a 7+ but claim a date hit with a 6.5

What's next, predicting sunrise?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Two separate agencies gives the magnitude of the same quake(after it has already occurred),having variation of 0.6 magnitude, which you say is normal.Wheres prediction accuracy you want exact.
Is it justified?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Good point.

But by the same token, you can't claim a hit either.

Roger

Yogesh said...

If you really have some Method, share it on a scientific forum. Patent the technique or keep it under open licence under your seal. Sharing on a blog does not make your effort seriously noteworthy. Even if you achieve 100% results, who would know? Just an advice. If you have a technique, take my advice.

AMIT said...

Yogesh
Thanks. I have not tried the same.
In fact I do not know how to approach or put up the case and to whom?
Thanks again
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Todays (24th June 2011 has confirmed the quake of 30 June / 1st July 2011.
As per cycle quake theory quakes occur in 7/8th days sequences ,till the potential fades out
We have 15/15th June + 7/8th day 23/24 th June (Fox island 7.4 and Sntacruz iceland 6.3.
Now next cycle quake is 30 June /1st July 2011 (7.0)
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Watching 30th June and 1st July 2011 for quakes
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
volcano erupted in Indonesia

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-07/03/c_13962937.htm

Amit

Anonymous said...

Hello Amit Sir,

No major quakes (7 Mag.) occurred around 30th June / 1st July 2011 as per cycle quake theory ( 7 days cycle theory after major quake ( Magnitude 7.2 - FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
2011 June 24 03:09:40 UTC ) .

So I think that you can drop this 7 days cycle theory as it does not get evidence in past years also; nor it may get consistent evidence in present year 2011.

Quakes do occur when gravity is very high or very low from Moon, Sun and/or planets. Certain phases of moon and declinations have co-relation with major quakes ( 7 mag. and more ; 70% of quakes do have such co-relation ) also. This co-relation becomes weaker for 6 mag to 6.5 mag quakes ( only 50% events for 6 mag. ; that means we can consider it as weak co-relation ) .

What Yogesh says is true, you may write a research paper on quake prediction if you feel so and if you have time. We may plan to submit combine research paper if you wish; that may help us to cross-check also with 2 theories ( though 80% similar ) . Please approach some science research center while you travel or meet some scientists.

My theory ( as well as yours ) show that very major ( even great ) quakes will occur on Earth around new moon days and full moon days on ( 12 and 26th ) Oct.2011 and ( 10 and 24th) Dec. 2011. Nov. 2011 will also see some surprise major quakes. Location can NOT be predicted . Tsunami is possible if such quake ( 8.5+ mag ) occurs in sea .

Best regards,

Santosh Phadnis
____________________

AMIT said...

Hi
NZ quake today ie 5th July 2011.USGS says it as 5.3 where as other local agencies put it as 6.5.
I do not know which one is correct.
Is it that,we can not measure the quakes correctly?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-07/05/c_13966565.htm

Amit

AMIT said...

Santosh
Thanks.The point is ,if on the date the volcano erupts ,it releases the tidal pressure and the quake will be less than expected.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I see neither of you predicted the 7.6 today.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Mumbai city receives nearly 2500 mm of rainfall every year. We ,in Municipal corporation clean the drais and oppen gutter during April and May every year.
During June to September every year we provide portable deisel pump sets at flooding spots.
As I am inchrge of Engineering Vigilence dept of Mech and Elec wing it becomes very hectic every year during these period.
Hence I could not up load July dates as a seperate blog
Nevertheless pl see my annual dates

http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/2011/01/earthquake-prediction-dates-7-for-year.html
where July 9 is mentioned as 7+ quake date.
Santosh ,here is clue for cycle quale.June 30/ 1st July 2011 was given for June .This is yet another cycle quake

please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ and go to calender for July 2011

I believe,there will be yet another 6.5+ either to day 8th or 9th July 2011
Roger, even if we take 9 th as my date(predicted ) for 7+ quake, what are the odds of getting hit with + or - 2 days ?( because it occured on 7 th July 2011)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Odds on a 7+ quake in a 5 day window are 0.182

Aftershocks don't count. They have a much higher probability which can't be accurately determined because it's different for each area.

Roger

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