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Sunday, November 27, 2016

Earthquake Prediction for December 2016

Hi All

Please give four random dates for December 2016. As I am going to give four probable dates for December 2016.It will be easier to compare my dates with all other dates .Dates expected from Roger, Anonymous, Philip and Curiou.
I will give dates after at least four (including Roger) will give random probable dates for  6+ quakes ,with + or - one day window period .Time and date reference will be UTC
I also request Roger to clarify the norms of evaluation of all such four dates received against my fifth dates,
please post the dates by 29th of November ,so that ,on last day I can do some calculations

regards

AMit

82 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

All windows will be analysed in the same manner for each individual.

Since there are 31 days in December the odds are 12/31 for each person.
The odds are 0.387 so chance would say one should capture 38.7% of the quakes.

Significance comes from the binary probability equations for getting X hits out of Y quakes when the odds are 0.387

Final answers will be determined after all December quakes are known.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
This will cover only one aspect ,namely,number of quakes covered.I suggest,there should all three aspects
1)Number of 6+quakes covered in %
2)Number of window Hits out of four
3)Number of Date Hits out of four.
Points will be given to each participant like
1)Points equal to %of quakes covered in window.ie if I have covered 60% ,I get 60 points for first evaluation
2)If I have some date Hits ,sat 10,equal points ie 10 points will be added
3)If I have 3 Hits out of Four 3×5=15 points will be added
4)If I have 7+ quake in window 10 additional points
5)If I have 7+ date Hits 20 additional points
Amit

AMIT said...

Contd...
If Toal say,seven participants, and seven sets of dates are there,more than 80% should score more than my score, to say that, my prediction are below random.Equal sets of dates should score equal toy score to say my predictions are just average
If only 30%can score equal to more than my score, my predictions are better than average
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
For the purpose of includong more sets of random dates , I have included three more sets of random dates,by drawing random dates from set of 31 dates.
They are
1,11,21,30
9,19,21,27
5,14,17,22

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here are the dates for December 2016

1)Roger..............3,15,21,29
2)Raghu Ragi.........2,12,22,29
3)Curiou............5,10,14,17
4)Philip............4,7,24,28
5)Amit..random....1,11,21,30
9,19,21,27
5,14,17,22

so ,total seven sets of dates,to be considered

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

In one of your series there is an overlap.

I will only give credit to one of them in case of a hit.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
These are random drawn dates. I can not do anything in this
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
I presume all those who wish to participate have posted random dates. Even after my posting and before 1st December Midnight UTC, anybody can still add random dates

Ok. I have done some calculation a day in advance and would like to post dates for December 2016

The probable dates are

1)3rd December
2)14th December
3)22nd December
4)29th December
Roger , see how our dates are matching.
Roger ,one question.
If some one gives total five days,instead of four ,is it possible to evaluate at Par?

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, 5 or more is fine.

Interesting that we chose almost identical dates.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
with re calculations , I would like to add 9th December as 5th date.
It is 8 pm Indian standard time ie 14.30 UTC.

AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So noted.

Nearly every day is covered by someone.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Magnitude 7.2 earthquake can hit on 1 December. nz.

Anonymous said...

Nope. Is now the 2nd here in nz and didnt happen. And hopefully wont.

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Sorry.I have held up posting of your comment till it is 2nd.
This is because, publishing all three aspects of quake prediction is date,magnitude and location, is prohibited by Indian Disaster Act 2005.
It is believed that, this may cause panic in the people at large specially for NZ
AMIT

Anonymous said...

Is this why you do not post location on your predictions?

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Partially yes.
My location prediction is not accurate enough to be published.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6 quake at Alaska on 3td , a date hit
Amit

Anonymous said...

2x earthquakes here in nz

martyna rozycka said...

Wow just found your blog. Another earthquake here in nz today like mentioned above. Just noticed your predicted next date as the 14th,interestingly enough it's the next super moon too!

Phillip Kennedy said...

A hit for my random also.

AMIT said...

Philip
NZ quake of 5.5 on 4th can not be counted as hit for anyone,though ,it may be significant for NZ.This is because our predictions are for 6 and 6+ quakes only
Amit

martyna rozycka said...

Had earthquakes in nz like mentioned above. Wondering if the next might be according to your predicted 14th, as it's also a super moon!

Aleysha Crawford said...

I believe the one on the 14th will hit here in lower north island, NZ. Very scary as I love right next to the beach.

AMIT said...

Aleysha
Pl note,location are not and can not be(yet) predicted
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi all was a good at 4.15 this afternoon 4th dec 5.5 cape camble GEO saying big one could be 8 plus makes me shake in my boots keep safe all Blenheim keeps shaking

Phillip Kennedy said...

I realise it's mag 6 plus only. Didn't the Alaska one count in my 3 day window?

AMIT said...

Philip
Yes.6 and 6+ can be counted as hit.Otherwise,several less than 5 or 4 quakes occurs in a day
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit ! I need you to Calculate the dates 9, 10, 13 and 18. These numbers are intuitively strong and I am wondering if these dates have any link with a partial disaster of some kind.

AMIT said...

Hi
Ok.
Following dates from Anonymous are added.
9,10,13,18
As window period of first date ie 8th has not started ,these dates can not be added
Amit

Phillip Kennedy said...

Mag 6.4 in indo. 2 out of 2 for my randoms so far.

AMIT said...

Philip
Only one on 6th ,as your second date is 7th. 5.5 is less than 6, and hence can not be counted
Amit

Unknown said...

13th 24th and 25th

Dman B said...

14th, 24th, 25th

AMIT said...

Daman B, Unknown
Ok.As the window period of your dates not started yet,these dates can be included.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Now total 11 sets of dates are available for comparison.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Stop adding dates please.

It's getting burdensome to my limited time.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
OK. No further dates
Amit

Unknown said...

Avd 12th/13th of december for nz. 8.1

Avd said...

12th/13th december 8.1 nz

AMIT said...

Hi
6.5 quake at coast of california on 8th.A hit prediction
Amit

AMIT said...

Avd/unknown
Please note, giving all three aspects of quake prediction ie date, magnitude and location amounts to spreading panic in people at large. Besides,there is no guarantee that,this will happen.So please avoid giving all three aspects of quake prediction.
As far as my opinion is concerned, I do not give any locations as off now
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more major quake 8.0 at Soloman island to day ie 8th. Prediction date is 9th with + or - one day time window
Amit

Phillip Kennedy said...

I read it as a 6.4 on the 7th???

Anonymous said...

So I was right ! I'm the anonymous who posted dates 9,10,13 and 18.


Sincere,
Tay

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Evaluation will be done after the end of the month
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more date hit,6.9 on 9th at Soloman island.Though, it may be an Aftershock, it is a hit .As long as ,you keep same rule and yardstick for all participants,it does not matter
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more 6.1 at PNG today ie 10th
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi We have total 11 participants .
So,if 5 or 6 of them are equal to my score ,I am average.
More than 7 are better ,than I am below average
Less than 4 are better,I am above averages
Amit

Unknown said...

Have known about the earthquakes in Christchurch before they started. Been up and down the island a few times. My dates are the 15th, 22nd and 29th of December for the alpine going. I hope I'm wrong

Caroline said...

Have known about the earthquakes in Christchurch before they started. Been up and down the island a few times. My dates are the 15th, 22nd and 29th of December for the alpine going. I hope I'm wrong

Tom said...

Hi Caroline, How did you know of them before they happened, do you have data to support this. Also why do you suspect the alpine fault will rupture this month and why those dates? Thanks, Tom

Curiou said...

Caroline, What makes you think the alpine is going?

Jessica Clark said...

Hi when the next biggest earthquake in nz please

AMIT said...

hi
Here is one more hit
6.0 at Northern Mariana Island on 14th December 2016
A date hit prediction

Amit

AMIT said...

hi
It is 15th of December today. Half of the month has passed. A reviews of the prediction by various participant is done, based on the guideline given above. The points obtained by each participant till today is

1)Amit........93
2)Roger......18.5
3)Raghu Rai....25
4)Curion.......68
5)Philip......50
6)Amit1.......31
7)Amit2.......56
8)Amit3.......27
9)D man B....18.5
10)unknown.....12.5
11)Anonymous....79.5

Now the results are self evident
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One correction .
Roger has 36 points
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

How are you counting points?

If you're doing better it's because you have 4 times as many windows as the rest of us.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The method is explained earlier
Yes.I have three dates till 15th .most of you have two. Only anonymous and curion have three dates. Final results will be available only after month end.
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I don't see any explanation for the point scores you are giving.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Please see second comment
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Oh, I see. I didn't scroll back far enough.

No, those numbers have no mathematical significance and may give false impressions.

You're free to do it for comparison to my method.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm working on a program to do the evaluations. Got tired of calculating by hand.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
6.7 quake on 21st at East Timor.
A hit prediction
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
It is ok. However,a new program need to be tested and QA-QC need to be done.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that's part of writing a program.

Preliminary results show predictors 3, 6, and 9 are doing much better than expected based on the number of quakes in their windows.

But the month isn't over...

Roger

Unknown said...

I am following the blog and is a common man without knowledge of earthquake . Why Chile earthquake of yesterday not counted

Roger Hunter said...

Unknown;

It is counted, it just hasn't been mentioned yet.

Only 3 of the 11 predictors caught it.

Roger

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Horry Tube said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
AMIT said...

Hi
The recent quake on 28th at Japan was 5.9 by USGS,where as Japan seismology put it at 6.3.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20161228214208392

I wonder,how come ,with such sophisticated instruments and series of seismograph s, both agency can not agree to one figure. Further, how come seismologist expect earthquake prediction br accurate to +or -0.3
Any explanation
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Magnitude is calculated from trace amplitudes on the records but those signals are subject to a lot of different things. Plus the answer is the result of averaging a lot of signals.

It would be unusual for different stations to come up with the same answer.
I use the USGS published values and even those get revised on occasion.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Agreed.
But necessarily imply that, the method is not fully roof and accurate
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's true but what in this world IS fully proven and absolutely accurate?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What and why were comments deleted?

Something I said?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

6.2 in Indonesia just now.

5 of the 11 predictors got it.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Those were video, which I could not open. Thought , could be spam.
Will check again, if found ok,will be up loaded
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok. I thought maybe it was due to something I said.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I will check and reinstate comments
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
As the month is almost over, please give some findings and results
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here is the output, assuming no more quakes are found this month.


DT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 QK
-----------------------------------
1| 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0| 1
2| 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 0
3| 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0| 1
4| 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0| 0
5| 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 1
6| 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 1
7| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0| 0
8| 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0| 3
9| 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0| 2
10| 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0| 1
11| 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0| 0
12| 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0| 0
13| 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1| 0
14| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1| 0
15| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1| 0
16| 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0| 0
17| 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0| 2
18| 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0| 3
19| 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0| 0
20| 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0| 1
21| 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0| 1
22| 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0| 0
23| 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1| 0
24| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1| 0
25| 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1| 1
26| 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1| 0
27| 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0| 0
28| 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0| 0
29| 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 1
30| 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0| 0
31| 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0| 0
-----------------------------------
12 12 12 12 11 11 12 15 10 7 7 19
.387 .387 .387 .387 .355 .355 .387 .484 .323 .226 .226 Odds for each predictor
5 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 3 2 2 Expected hits
4 4 10 8 5 11 8 9 11 1 1 Observed hits

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You need to explain for the viewers
However, here is general results
Total 6+ quakes in month.....19
1)Amit..8 quakes, 5 hit prediction,4 date hit prediction
2)Roger...5,4,3date Hits
3)Raghu...4,3,1 date hit
4)Curiou..10,4,4 date hit
5)pihip..7,4,0 date hit
6)Amit1...5,4,3 date hit
7)Amit2....9,3,2 date hit
8)Amit 3...8,4,3 date hit
9)D man B..2,2,2 date hit
10)Unknown...2,2,1 date hit
11) Anonymous..10,4,3 date Hits

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Predictors are as follows;

1) Roger
2) Raghu
3) Curious
4) Phil
5) Amit random
6) Amit random
7) Amit random
8) Amit real predictions
9) Anonymous
10) Unknown
11) Dman

You may need to revise your numbers accordingly.

Results at a glance by comparing observed to expected.
Anyone getting more than expected is doing well.

Factor in odds to compute significance levels but the interesting thing is how many random predictions scored much better than expected.

It's all just chance.

Roger