Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Earthquake Prediction/forecast for Feb 2016

hi
 Sorry for posting the date late
 Probable dates for 6+ quakes in Feb are

1) 6th /7th Feb 2016--------------6.5

2)11th--------------------------- 7.1

3)23rd--------------------------- 6.8

Date 6/7th means 12 Noon of 6th to 12 Noon of 7th UTC

out f three dates the 11th is most potent, Next potent is 233rd/24th

watch out

 Amit Dave

 Addition-( this addition done  on 5th  Feb at 16.15 UTC )
 To be more specific , Here are the time in UTC for quake to occur

1) 8th Feb-------11.45 UTC
2) 10th ----------20.00 UTC
3)11th------------03.00 UTC
4)22nd-----------18.00 UTC
5)24th------------04.00 UTC

Amit Dave

Yet another addition ( at 17.00 UTC  on 5th Feb 2016)


probable longitudes for quakes are given below

1)  not specified
2) 10th -----92 degree s East and/or  88 degree west
3)11th ------170 degrees East and /or 10 degrees west
4)22nd--------92 degrees East and /or 88 degrees west
5) 24th -------42 degrees  west and /or 138 degrees East

regards
Amit Dave








40 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

How many times must you fail before you realize your system doesn't work?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks
Thre are two ways
1) Either I score less than 50%, in 101 consecitive months prediction
Or
2) 101 of veiwers write here, that this is all nonsense
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's 8.4 years!

Chance doesn't work that way. You'll score above some months, below other months.

It's the average that matters.

We've done several years already with negative scores.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

2 quakes this month; 1st and 5th

the 5th was a hit so you're 1/2 quakes 1/4 predictions

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correction; 1/3 predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Pl watch the first accuracy . 6.4 quakw at Taiwan.
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I am not not doing full time research . I have my duties and hosehold chores to be done first. During night houts ,I do this work. Hence ,sometimes not able to post before 1sy of month .Like in feb. This can not be trested as miss
Unfortunately,no govt wants to fund research which works against plate tectonics
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Thought you were retired?

Anyway, list all your indicators and I will compute the whole year for you

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes. I have retired last year. But I am working as full time technical consultant for a firm and two other Non Govt Organisations ,one in institute working for "ethical Governance"and another in the field of Mental Health(specialy
counciling clinical Depression patients
My soon ,who has graduated recently is developing a program for me.But it is a simple excel version.After almost alternate day discussiins ,he has not yet been able to incorporate all intricay of my six odd predictors.I will request to send excel version to you,if you wish
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Sorry. I am posting this while in move( a heavily crowded Mubai Suburban train)Hence some typo errors
Regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm impressed! You are a man of many talents.

All I need is a list of indicators. I can compute all planetary positions.

If you have tricky rules of combinations that may complicate things.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Ethics ends where there is governance. Freedom giveth birth to ethics. Only Libras mind structure is called a 'Brain'.

AMIT said...

Dear Anonymous
I could not understand what you want to say. please elaborate
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Hi
one more quake 6.3 at PNG on 8th .yet another hit in single window of 6/7th
Are these quakes mearly by chance?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far, 1/3 quakes correct, 1/3 predictions correct.

PNG was not a hit. The window closed at 12:00, the quake was at 16:19

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Ok.yes sorry
But I am glad,my predictions are observed in terms of hrs. Where as seismplogist (sometimes) predict quakes those are measured in centuries,may five to ten hundread years
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
This can be viewed like this also
the quake was on 8th at 16.19 Hrs, where as the exact time stated earlier was on 8th
at 11.45 UTC.SO It is just four and half hrs of predicted time
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's still a miss.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
watch one more hit.6.3 on 10th at 0.33 hrs UTC.It is well 33 minutes inside time window
keep counting
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that's a hit

2/4 quakes 2/3 predictions

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note prediction of 10th at 20 hrs UTC.It is note worthy that the is nearky 24 in advance of time predicted.
I suspect this being 24 hrs advance cycle quake. And that one more is to come exactly after 24 hrs (place note known)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
In fact, place can be predicted (with lesser accuracy ). However, there is restriction by law, that all three aspects of quake prediction ( ie date/time, magnitude and location ) can not be published ( it amounts to spreading rumors). In fact , I keep the prediction records in my personal diary ,for some of the major quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Can you tell me the locations by email?

(In confidence of course)

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
as long as I am not pim pointing location ( by lat and Long both) ,there should not be problem
1) 10th ....20 UTC.....75 DEGREE WEST.AND/OR..105 DEGREE East

2)11th.. 03.00 UTC.......170 Degree East and/or ..10 degree west

3)22nd...18 UTC...... 92 degree East and/or....88 degree west

4) 24th ...4 UTC.......70 degree west and/or...110 degree East


Amit

AMIT said...

Location window is + or -10 degrees pl

AMIT said...

pl note that, the longitudes are exactly 180 degrees apart. ie because as per tidal force theory ,the pull is active on both side of the globe, either one or both are at risk.
However, if major volcanic eruption occurs on the date ,the builtup pressure is reduced and quake could be of lesser magnitude

Anit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Then the 10th quake is a miss on time and location.

It was 0UTC 71W

Roger

AMIT said...

10th is 20 UTC

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

not according to this

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#label/quakes/152c8babc1f7ba40

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
one more quake in the window period . A 6.5 quake at Indonesia to day ie 12th at 10.02
UTC

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's a date hit.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
No it was not. It is only in window period
Amit DAVE

AMIT said...

Hi
Though ,5..8 is not major NZ and chirstchurch is very sensitive to quake.
11th location was 170 degree East ie NZ
anyway no claim pl.5.8 quake is not counted in my calculations
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today (15th) at 19:28

Miss.

Roger

AMIT said...

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/zdU1QlGxGv63D0iyBLQVDN/What-the-planets-foretell-Earthquakes.html

pl check the link for corelation between earthquakes and planetary positions
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your linked predictions are no better than yours.

They made one prediction in Jan, 4 days long and captured 2 of the 13 quakes.

So far in Feb they got 1 of the 6 quakes with a 2 day window.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

pi
note couple of quakes at NZ today also at Japan and Afghanistan
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Feb score; 2/11 quakes in 1/4 predictions

Below chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) first.. total 6+ quakes are 7 in the month of February ( including one of 6.0) , and not 11 as you have mentioned...pl check

2) As per original prediction ,three dates were predicted and out of three ,two are hit in window period

so ,what you call 2/11 is actually 3/7
and what you call 1/4 is actually 2/3

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I beg your pardon; you are partly correct.

It's 2/7 quakes. The quake on the 8th is outside your window

2/3 predictions correct.

Still chance.

Roger