Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, June 02, 2016

Earthquake Prediction for June 2016

Hi
  The probable dates for major earthquakes in the month of June are as follows

1) 5th June  2016.....

2)18th/19th June 2016..

3) 29th June 2016..

window period is + or - one day

As on the date of Moon at Perigee( closest to Earth in the month ie about 57 ER -IE 57 Earth radius,we have one 6.5 quake, The date has passed hence omitted from the list


Amit

24 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Missed one already; June 1

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
yes.I have already mentioned it.As I was out of town could not calculate and post in time
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit,

What is the use of this blog if you cannot predict the location? Predicting only dates but no location - good for nothing?

You did not even reply to my earlier post where I asked you about Jan 3rd and April 13th quakes, 2016?

Anyway... seems like you're only interested replying to 'Mr. Roger'... Boasted ego speaking?

Good luck.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Unfortunate but still a miss.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Unfortunate but still a miss.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
I am extermly sorry if I missed to reply your post.
As mentioned earlier the location can not be predicted as it is an offence under Indian Disater Act 2005. Moreover location accuracy is not up to the mark.This is because if you miss the time by even half an hour the location is moved due to Earth rotation and revoluation.
Nevertheless ,if the dates can be predicted ,it implythat the quakes follow some rule.The biggest hitch of to days seismologist is,they stongly believe that the quakes can not be predicted and then start finding the various reasons why.How on Earth they find any solution with this mental staus.
Regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If quake dates can be predicted, why aren't your results better than chance?

I mean, a LOT better, 99% better.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Which of the forecast /predictions are 99%accurate?
After spending millions of dollarcan we predict rains accurately ie 99%.Like today LA will get 6.5 cm rains by evening?
Or even after sattelite tracking can we pin point land fall or a cyclone to one sq km accuracy.This after super computers put in actions
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

None of them but that's not the point.

I want 99% better than chance so I don't endorse someone who might just have been lucky on a small sample test.

It means the results have only 1 chance in 100 of being due to luck.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
There are two major quakes
6.3 each at Banda sea and Indonesia.
watch date hit prediction
Are such date hits flukes or by chance?
Amit

AMIT said...

It seems a single quake of 6.3

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Come on, you're clutching at straws. Your predictions are for 6.5+ quakes.

Yes they are chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
watch again.Thiis month I have mentioned major quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Score to date;

1/7 quakes, 1/3 predictions for 6+ quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is not correct to say 1/3.
In fact it is 1/1.
The first date predicted was hit.
It is how you see and interpreat the things
Amit

Anonymous said...

I think 7.5 magnitude earthquake is possible on 18 june.possibly south sanvich.what do you think about magnitude.

AMIT said...

Annonymous
Yes ,it could be 6.5+.placae not confirmed
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Hi
watch 6.6 quake at Vanuattu on 19th.
A date hit prediction.
Roger
It is 2/2 prediction for this month.ie both predicted dates are hit
Amit

A Thompson said...

Good call amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, that.s a hit but consider;

Out of 9 quakes so far you have captured 3 in your windows.

Your windows covered 6 of the first 20 days or 30%

30% of 9 is 2.7 (or 3 to the nearest unit)

So once again, just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Another quake today in your 18/19 window bringing you up to 4/10

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

2 more quakes today making you 6/12 well above chance which is why we don't rely on small samples.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

6.3 just now so it's 6/13

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So we finish out the month with 3/13 quakes, 2/3 predictions

I must have miscounted earlier.

Roger