Hi
Sorry for posting this post so late.
I was pre occupied with office work and Dipawali
Dipawali is Hindu new year ,which will start from 8th November
Probable dates for major quakes ae
1) 7th......6.4
2)15th......6.6
3)22nd.....6.5
4) 26th......6.9
Window period is +or - one day
Amit
Sorry for posting this post so late.
I was pre occupied with office work and Dipawali
Dipawali is Hindu new year ,which will start from 8th November
Probable dates for major quakes ae
1) 7th......6.4
2)15th......6.6
3)22nd.....6.5
4) 26th......6.9
Window period is +or - one day
Amit
22 comments:
Amit;
You missed 2 already; Nov 1 and Nov 4
Off to a bad start.
Roger
Roger
That is because ,I could not post in time
Amit
Hi
I am aware ,when I write this, that the major quake(6.8) on 9th November at 0149 GST ,is 1 hr and 49minutes outside window.
However, look at the magnitude.
Siesmologist and scientists predict quakes in terms of years or may be centuries
Amit
Amit;
There were quakes on the 1st, 4th, 9th and 10th of this month and you missed all of them.
Roger
Roger
I have posted on 3rd ,so 1st and 4th can not be counted. It is like I loose a race with ,I did not participated.
9th is 1 hr 49 minutes late
Yes10th ,you can say is not pridicited.
I think, dates which are predicted and missed are real miss ,rather quakes on dates which are not posted/predicted
Amit
Amit;
True, predictions without quakes are missed predictions.
But quakes without predictions are predictions you failed to make.
Roger
Hi
Two major quakes on 15th. 6 and 6.4,
Date hit prediction
Amit
I want to try my luck
Dec dates
3rd
10th
18th
26th
all in the 6mag range
EvilPieman
You are most welcome.
In fact ,I would like few more to give random dates
Amit
Amit;
4/9 quakes in windows so far.
Coin toss results, all in one window.
Roger
Hi
6.0 quake at Columbia on 25th Nov.
A hit prediction
Amit Dave
Amit;
Yes, a date hit.
So far 4/11 quakes in 2/4 windows.
Just chance.
Roger
Hi
One more quake.
6.3 at Iran Iraq boarder on 25th
Amit
Amit;
Yes.
Now 6/12 quakes in 2/4 windows.
Coin toss odds
Roger
Amit;
I determined the odds that a 3 day window chosen at random would contain a 6+ quake.
It turns out to be .204 based on the record from 1973 to 2016 inclusive.
This means you should only get 1/4 (roughly) correct so you're doing better than chance
but not enough to matter. Multiple quakes don't count because you don't predict them.
Your predictions are not useful because you don't give locations and there's only a
20% chance that the predicted date will be correct.
Roger
Roger
My results for current year is 26 hits out of 41 predictions.
Much better than chance
First think first, let us believe that ,the major quakes can be predicted.
LocstionL will come next
Amit
Roger
It is 6.15 am here in Mumbai,India ,now.
I am on my morning walk.This is being posted while on move ,so some typing errors are there.
I am sorry for that
Amit
Amit;
How are you counting this?
Are you saying that 26 of your 41 predictions had one or more quakes in them
or are you saying 26 quakes were included in your 41 predictions?
It makes a big difference.
Roger
Roger
Yes.
There are 41 dates ,which I have posted in this year ,till November
Out of which 26 dates have one or more 6+ quakes in the window period
Amit
Amit;
Congratulations! There is no way that result could be due to chance.
What puzzles me is that past tests on you have shown no such results.
Ordinarily, I would suspect cheating of some sort but that's impossible here since all your predictions are posted publicly and in advance.
Have you changed your method recently in some way?
I'll be doing a year by year examination to get a larger sample and if it holds up you'll be the first to pass my evaluation.
Roger
Roger
Thanks
Yes
Change is not basically in method but choosing dates between two probable dates.
I will send you mail ,as soon as I compiled it month wise/ Year wise
It is done purely by physical check
Amit
Post a Comment