Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, May 09, 2010

Accuracy of prediction- Sumatra quake-

hi
please note today's major quake of 7.4 at northern Sumatra against my predicted date of 10th May 2010 and 6.4+.
I would again request he USGS and learned scientist/geologist to look in to he matter at least once leaving the prejudice that,no theory.other than plate tectonic is correct. I would also like Roger to note this.

This may even increase the ash from Iceland volcano
regards
Amit
please.. please save some lives

19 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, this Sumatra quake fits your prediction for date but it's still only chance.

If you make enough predictions, some of them will be correct. A broken clock is correct twice a day.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks
regards
Amit

Samual said...

Roger,
If your theory is absolute then I welcome you to predict in the same manner and see if your outcome reflects your words. Please, I'd like to see your daily list of quakes with magnitude and what you base your conclusions on.
Thanks,
Sam

medeea said...

Hi, you made a prediction for 14 may... you said that will be a +7R earthquake in romania. You mantain your prediction?
Thank you.

Roger Hunter said...

Samual;

I am not a predictor. I am an evaluator.

Amit is not a predictor either. He posts a list of new/full moon dates and sometimes there's a quake that fits.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
9/10th May 2010 is neither new Moon nor full Moon.
Roger, prediction is not as simple as you thought of ie giving dates of new Moon and full Moon.
I fail to understand ,if we can accept and put millions of Dollar in weather forecast (which is hardly accurate),why we do not accept the 80%+ accuracy.This is only because it is against plate tectonics.
What I am saying is -plates are due to quakes and quakes are not due to plates-.
If we look at plate tectonics with his angle ie first quakes then plates and later plate movements- all anomalies of plate tectonics can be explained like Intra plate quakes-clusters of quakes etc
Roger, by all existing means of science ,technology and Doppler radar can we predict the exact rain fall (in mm accuracy) and place (in long-lat-accuracy of decimals ) on a given date?
It is good to some times look to problems and probable solution from different angle.
regards
Amit

Samual said...

Roger,
Prediction can be based on data. I have begun a comprehensive charting of all EQ's on USGS significant EQ list starting from 2005. I have placed in the chart all moon phases, and planetary alignments. My findings indicate that major EQ's actually happen within 1-3 days of a New or Full moon, and very often with other planetary movements. Consistently.
You are not just an evaluator but a detractor and skeptic with nothing more than opinion to back up your statements. Amit has been somewhat remiss in providing something visual to you to back his findings which do hold a pattern and not just mere chance. Some of us are busy in our everyday lives and cannot always succumb to the haughty demands of detractors. There is alot more data to be seen. When I am finished compiling my results I will post them on this blog.
Nothing makes me champion new ideas more than the ignorance of uninformed skepticism.

Roger Hunter said...

Samual;

You are mistaken.

I was a seismologist until I retired. I did extensive investigation into possible planetary influences using quakes back to 1973.

There is no such effect.

What typically happens is that investigators add more and more factors until every quake has something associated with it. But this is useless for predictions because there is no consistency. The misses far outweigh the hits for each element.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
All your evelation problems comes when you average out 6+ quakes over a year. ( say roughly 150)
For your satisfaction I would like to go one step further
As per USGS there are on an average 16 quakes of 7+ per annum.
From May 15th to 31st December 2010 there will be 230 days left and hence about 10 quakes of 7+ are expected(as per USGS)
Now for these 10 quakes ,if you can tell me how many days predicted,how many hits (as well as misses)those are required to be qualified as per your evelalution to be above random dates or out of the hat dates?
16 quakes per year is roughly 4.5% say 5.0%.so for 10 quakes I need to give 200 dates out of 230 left to get 10 hits.
plese give
1)no of dtes to be predicted
2)no of hits required
3)no of misses allowed
till 31 st December 2010 for your eveluation
regrads
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The odds on getting a hit on a mag 7.0+ quake using a 3 day window are 0.110.

If you make 16 predictions in a year you would need to get 6 right to pass my test.

Based on your past performance where you tried 74 times and got only 5 right (2006 to 2010) you don't stand a chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
My 74 predictions were not all for 7.0+ quake,if I am not mistaken.
I would love to appear in your test for time frame up to December 2010,if you allow. I assure you I would pass your test with flying colors.
I have already given dates for 7+ also.
Roger, can I give 16 dates from 15th May onward and 6 hits as well as 9 misses?
waiting for your reply.
I my modify my list slightly.
Would you like list of 7+ quakes in one go or list every month.
This is I am asking because,sometimes I adjust the prediction (well in advance) looking at the cycle quakes
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just to keep things interesting let's do it a month at a time.

You can modify your predictions as long as you do it before the window opens. I will not accept aftershocks.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here are what I have for your 7+ predictions.

12,12,2006,00,00,IST,7.2
8,04,2007,12,00,IST,7.3
25,04,2007,00,00,IST,7.5
28,04,2007,12,00,IST,7.1
3,05,2007,00,00,IST,7.8
10,05,2007,12,00,IST,7.8
16,06,2007,12,00,IST,7.5+
14,08,2007,00,00,IST,7.5+
22,08,2007,15,30,IST,7.5+
23,12,2007,00,00,IST,8.0+
29,12,2007,12,00,IST,7.5+
5,05,2008,00,00,IST,8.0+
10,05,2008,12,00,IST,8.0+
13,05,2008,12,00,IST,8.0+
01,01,2010,01,30,IST,7.2
29,03,2010,12,00,IST,7.0
06,06,2010,05,30,IST,7.4
12,06,2010,12,00,IST,7.1
26,06,2010,12,30,IST,7.1
04,07,2010,04,00,IST,7.0
16,07,2010,12,00,IST,7.1
26,07,2010,05,00,IST,7.1
12,08,2010,12,00,IST,7.3
24,08,2010,13,00,IST,7.0
27,08,2010,10,00,IST,7.4
01,09,2010,09,00,IST,7.0
03,09,2010,11,30,IST,7.3
08,09,2010,12,00,IST,7.6
23,09,2010,09,00,IST,7.2
16,11,2010,05,30,IST,7.0

Do you agree or do you wish to make changes?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) Some of the adtes like 28th Feb 2010 ,is not seen in the list
2)It would br better to watch dates yet to come.Because , year after the after lot of fine tuning is done in predicting dates
like
cosidering Moons declination
Speed of planets
special days when Sun and Moon are at the same declinations
Moon at Equater
which were earlier not given importance.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You can't change predictions after the window opens.

You can't add new predictions for past dates.

The more indicators you add the greater the probability of a hit and the less it is worth. Eventually you will have an indicator for every day and none of them will be worth anything.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) I have never changed and will never change the date after the window period is opened
2)I have never added new prediction for the past dates
If you are talking of 28th Feb 2010,it is already mentioned. pl see my Jan 25 2010 blog.
Also pl see -Earthwaves- chile 8x+ thread and your own comments dt 27 Feb 2010
3) Fine tuning is not changing parameters. With fine tuning magnitude and time may very slightly. The basic theory remains the same.All attribute are basically intended to find out the tidal force.For example ,if Moon is on equator ,it is nearer and hence mor tidal force.
Sun and Moon at same declination means more combined resultant pull
regrads
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

This points up the need for a central comprehensive list of all predictions.

When I have to read thru every post you've made to compile my list I may miss something.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am sorry for the inconvinence caused to you by not giving a comrpehensive list at one place.
But the problem is ,some times ,as per cyacle quakes ,this may change little (of course before window period begins)
Nevertheless ,I will ,hence foth ,try to give dates per month at the begining of the month itself.
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
please note the accuracy of prediction ie date 21st December 2010 vis a vis actual quakes of
Iran 6.5
Japan region 7.4
Indonesia 6.2
please see my web page

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com
Amit