Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, September 18, 2010

Open invitation to give probable major earthquake dates

It is pointed out by one gentleman that, my prediction needs to be tested with random dates given by one and all.
I ,here by, request to all persons who wish to check my dates vis a vis random dates given by them, to post dates on this blog by 21st September 2010, 2355Hrs (UTC)
Following things to be noted
1)Each one can post three dates in a month.
2)Dates should be till December 2010 end
3)Earthquakes predicted should be major (6+)
4)Only date hits will be counted,day being as per UTC- OR- As per Roger advise us to do.
5)If time is given ,it should be in UTC
6)Evaluations will be done after December 2010 by Roger
regards
Amit Dave

70 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Don't you think it would be advisable to see if I would be willing to do such a thing before stating that I would?

It's just an exercise in futility IMHO.

If a number of people participate, some will do well, some will do poorly and all by chance, proving nothing.

What you need is someone who does well all the time.

You don't.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am sorry for that. I though,there is no person more suitable than you for such ,unbiased evaluation
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Thank you.

And I will do the evaluation.

I'm a sucker for flattery!

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
It seems .no one have yet posted any dates.Any way I here by post my dates,time and magnitude
September-2010
1) 23rd---0810 UTC----6.4
2)26th----1615 UTC----6.5
3)30th----1330 UTC----6.7
OCtober 2010
1)7th----0610 UTC-----6.9
2)9th ---1815 UTC-----6.7
3)23rd---0130 UTC---6.6
November 2010
1)6th---0030 UTc----6.9
2)16th---1230 UTC----7.1
3)22st----0145 UTC---7.2
December 2010
1)6th---0130 UTC---6.6
2)21st--0230 UTC----7.2
3)28th--0630 UTC----6.2
please watch
Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You didn't specify any ranges. Normally this would mean the quake has to be exactly as stated.

Very unlikely.

But if you want your previous limits of +- 1 day (3 day window) and +- 1 unit of mag you have another problem.

Some of these predictions would be contiguous, merging into 6 or 9 day windows which are almost certain to get a hit and are thus worthless.

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
1)window period--- + or- 24 hrs ie 2 day window
2) unit ------ + or - 0.3
regards
Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, got it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

To clarify mag;

you said "unit------- + or - 0.3"

If you predict 7.2 (for example)

does that mean

6.7 to 8.3
or
6.9 to 7.5?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
6.9 to 7.5 please
Amit

sdelapp said...

Hello, Amit, All.
Sure, i'd like to throw a test date out there. I am thinking a
6.+ antime from this post (9/21 20:00 utc) thru tomorrow the 23rd.

I've been busy doing a study, and if this hits, i'll post for the rest of the year also.
Later
Steve

Brandon said...

I will provide some random dates however. Amit I think you should have posted yours a little later to avoid people trying to hover around or deliberately avoid your dates. It may be a bias. I will pick all days with the sums of 23 as either dd/mm or dd/mm/yy format. Random enough?

September 24th 00:23 UTC 5.5
October 10th 1:22 UTC 6.1
October 13th 2:21 UTC 5.7
October 23rd 3:20 UTC 7.0
November 9th 4:19 UTC 6.3
November 12th 5:18 UTC 5.9
December 8th 6:17 UTC 6.7
December 11th 7:16 UTC 6.3
December 17th 8:15 UTC 6.9


There is some over lap in these dates but at least its something.

Lazlo said...

Sept:
25, 26, 27 - 6.5 or Greater

Oct:
15, 22, 28 - 6.5 or Greater

Roger Hunter said...

Amit, Steve, Brandon

You all missed on the first prediction.

Off to a bad start.

Roger

sdelapp said...

I am thinking a
6.+ antime from this post (9/21 20:00 utc) thru tomorrow the 23rd.

I've been busy doing a study, and if this hits, i'll post for the rest of the year also.


Oh, well, back to the drawing board

AMIT said...

hi
looking at the cycle quakes of 23rd September, the magnitude of next cycle quake of 30th September is reduced (before window opens) to
6.2 from 6.7
Amit DAve

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

By reducing the mag to 6.2 and adding in the 0.3 rang making it 5.9 you practically guarantee a hit.

But that makes the hit nearly worthless.

Roger

sdelapp said...

OK, here's another test date

Sept 29, +/- 12hrs,

6.5 or stronger.

Steve

AMIT said...

Roger
Yesterdays quake at Iran as shown by USGS is 5.5 (modified from 5.7) .However, Iran seismological report and other news agency says it was 6.1. It is not understood how much unit it was
Amit

sdelapp said...

OK, here's another test date

Sept 29, +/- 12hrs,
6.5 or stronger.

Steve
4:32 PM

9/29= 6.6 & 7.2
Bulls@Eye !!!

sdelapp said...

Ok there's a hit

9/29 = 6.6 & 7.2

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Nobody got the 7.2 today.

Roger

AMIT said...

ROGER
First quake as per USGS ,at 17.10.51 UTC was of 6.2.In fact the after shock was greater than main quake. 6.2 is exactly as per prediction
regards
Amit

sdelapp said...

Roger:
Ah, say what???
I got that 7.2 right on the nose.
please see my post of 9/27

Roger Hunter said...
Amit;

Nobody got the 7.2 today.

Roger
3:09 PM

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

A matter of interpretation.

I took sep 29 +/-12 hrs to mean 28 12:00 to 29 12:00.

You may have meant 28 12:00 to 30 12:00 which would be a hit.

This is why predictions have to be stated unambiguously.

Roger

Lazlo said...

This is a total joke. You need to spend your time doing something else. This is total crap.

sdelapp said...

Ok Amit & all,
here's my throw for the month of October :

a 6.0+ on the 6th

a 7.0+ on the 7th, and

a 6.0+ on the 9th

Plus a 12 hour margin on either side of each window (eg. 12n the 5th to 12n the 7th)

sorry for the late entry, research is still in progress.
steve

AMIT said...

sdelapp
It is not understood ,the dates given by you are random or you have some base to select these dates.
Because ,if they are not random,comparing could be difficult
regards
Amit

sdelapp said...

Yes Amit,
I definitely have a specific method for predicting eq dates, but it is still under development and experimental

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

That's essentially one prediction since they overlap.

Roger

KT said...

i study the 7.0+ quake,mainly the 7.5+ quake,Oct 1 ±3 days ,7.0+(≥7.0)quake will happen, and Oct 20 ±7 days,7.5+(≥7.5)quake will happen

original link:

http://tieba.baidu.com/f?kz=899748497

sdelapp said...

"Steve;
That's essentially one prediction since they overlap.
Roger"

Actually, that would be three (3) major earthquakes distributed over a five (5) day, or a one hundred and twenty (120) hour, period of time, with the largest one (with the least probability) predicted for the center of the distribution.

So, that being made clear, what do you figure the odds of such a compound event?

sdelapp said...

"sdelapp
It is not understood ,the dates given by you are random .....
,if they are not random,comparing could be difficult
Amit"

Yes i see what you mean Amit, as we are calling for some of the same dates.

Apologies, i thought this was a test for predictions, but now that i read your rules again i think you meant for us to to draw random dates to test against your forecast.
Anyway i don't think it will matter as the predictions will be correct or not. we'll soon see.
steve

AMIT said...

Steve
Never mind. Let us wait and watch
Amit

Diane said...

Sir, we expect e great eathquake ( 7,5-8°R) in Bucarest ( Romania - birth 5 fev 1859 at 14,38h), could you predict something for us, please ??? Thank you very much

AMIT said...

Diane
I can not predict the places ,as of now.Besides ,this is not an Astrological pridiction and by preparing the birth chart of nation nothing can be predicted.
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

hi
There are three major quakes ,6.4,6.3 and 6.1 on 8th OCtober morning ,as predicted
Amit Dave

sdelapp said...

Yes indeed,
Quite interesting that this major EQ activity is occuring in these forecast windows.

However, I still have forecast and am still expecting a 7.0+ EQ sometime between this post and the close of the forecast window, 10/10 @ 12 UTC

Some time left for that.
Steve
posted 10/08 20:20utc

sdelapp said...

OCtober 2010
1)7th----0610 UTC-----6.9
2)9th ---1815 UTC-----6.7

AMIT said...
roger
1)window period--- + or- 24 hrs ie 2 day window
2) unit ------ + or - 0.3

Well Amit,
Your forecast was much more precise than mine, with this significant activity spot on in the middle of your windows, and i believe there is more activity right around the corner.
Steve
10/08 20:30utc

Roger Hunter said...

sdelapp;

That happened 337 times from 1973-2010.

Not that unusual.

Roger

AMIT said...

sdelapp
Yes,you are right. There is one more(major ) to come between 9th, 18 GMT and 10th 18 GMT
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger/Sdelapp
I could not make out ,what exactly happened 337 times from 1973 to 2010
Amit

sdelapp said...

sdelapp;
That happened 337 times from 1973-2010.
Not that unusual.
Roger
7:38 PM


337 / 13870(38x365)= .024
About once a year

Not that usual
Steve
10/09
11:00utc

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

337/38

About 8 times per year

Roger

sdelapp said...

Oh yes, that's right.
Well, I shouldn't try to do statistics on my way out the door to work.
steve
10/10 02:00

sdelapp said...

BTW Roger,

To what does that 337 refer anyway, as Amit has already asked?

Steve

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

You asked about the odds on 3 quakes (6+) within 5 days with the center quake being the largest.

That happened 337 times (give or take a few) in that time interval.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Got it .Thank you. But the point is ,how many times such quakes occurred on different plate boundaries (not related to each other).
As per plate tectonics ,such quakes (6+) occurring on different plate boundaries, with in couple of days should be not be common phenomenon.
Where as, treating these quakes as clusters of quakes (as the window period has a potential to trigger such clusters ),such clusters can be explained.
regards
Amit

sdelapp said...

Well Amit,
I'd say that was good shooting, all around.

But may I take another crack at it? I am speculating that another "swarm" is about to happen.

So, I am forecasting three (3) major quakes (6+) in the six (6) day period from 10/14 0h to 10/19 24h
Steve
10/12 1:30utc

AMIT said...

steve
Venus is closer during this period. There is a slight chance (though I doubt ) of 6+ between 16th and 17 th October.
However, as the Moon is far away
(63.5 ER),at that time, ,the chances of big one(6.5+) are less.
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

steve
As th Jupiter and Venus both changes the direction on 19th November 2010, we may witness,major quakes and even series of major quakes (clusters) 15 days before and 15 days after 19th Novembar 2010.
basic theory is -
whaen major planets like Jupiter ,Venus and Saturrn chamges the direction from direct to retogate or vice versa, they create imbalance in molten magma inside the crust( due to momentum -mass*velocity-change )
Moon when joins ,opposes or squares such planets or Sun ,major quakes occurs
Magnitude depend on Moon proximity, planets proximty and aspects, besides their extreme declinations
regards
Amit Dave

sdelapp said...

Well Amit
while my particular theory differs somewhat from yours, in many ways it's the same and that is why we have been having some, but not all, of the same dates.

All of the research i have been doing for the past several months clearly indicates some kind of relationship here, but it is clearly a complicated combination of factors.

It certainly is an interesting observation.

Steve
10/13 1:15utc


basic theory is -
whaen major planets like Jupiter ,Venus and Saturrn chamges the direction from direct to retogate or vice versa, they create imbalance in molten magma inside the crust( due to momentum -mass*velocity-change )
Moon when joins ,opposes or squares such planets or Sun ,major quakes occurs
Magnitude depend on Moon proximity, planets proximty and aspects, besides their extreme declinations
regards
Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit, Steve;

It's not complicated at all.

The earth is not a ball of liquid magma covered by a thin crust, it does not slosh around inside like the ocean does outside.

Only the sun and moon have any measurable effect on the earth. The other planets are totally too small and distant to change anything, let alone cause quakes.

Roger

sdelapp said...

Roger Hunter said...
"Only the sun and moon have any measurable effect on the earth. The other planets are totally too small and distant to change anything, let alone cause quakes."

Which is another way of stating an important part of any experiment, the Null Hypotheses:

"The motions of the sun, moon and planets have no relationship with earthquake activity on planet Earth."

What's being tested here is the Alternative Hypotheses:

"The motions of the sun, moon and planets do have relationship with earthquake activity on planet Earth."

Steve
10/14 15:00utc

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

True.

So where's the evidence?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
on an average 6+ quakes in a year are 150 odd. Hence, per month it should be 13.
Now,let us watch 15 days before and 15 days after 19th November 2010 (When both Jupiter and Venus changes the directions)
The quakes (6+) during this selected month will be much higher than 13
Amit

sdelapp said...

Roger Hunter said....
"So where's the evidence?"

Here ya go Roger,
here's some evidence for ya!

6.1 2010/10/16 15:44:33 - KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA

Steve
10/16 17:30utc

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's quite possible but proves nothing.

It's equally possible that there will be fewer than average, which also proves nothing.

You must understand that these limited tests are not meaningful.

The only way to establish credibility is a long sequence of trials resulting in more hits than chance expectations.

Then and only then csan you claim to have something worth investigating.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
How long is long? If you specify I will check it out.
I have done some more work and found following ,when Jupiter is changing the direction quakes are counted. Please note the distance of Jupiter is not taken in account here
Jupiter changing dir.---quake 6+
23.07.2010--------21 /month
2.09.1999------- 11
02.10.2000--------10
17.04.2007--------27
10.05.2008--------16
06.03.1990--------11
05.06.1993--------17
24.07.1998--------16
03.08.1983--------11
14.06.1985--------11

-----------------------
Total---------- 151
Thus ,it comes 15.1 per month which is more than average
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Further , out of above dates following dates refer to Jupiter and Saturn both changing directions in a short span of 1-3 days.


2.09.1999------- 11
02.10.2000-------10
17.04.2007-------27
10.05.2008-------16
05.06.1993-------17
------------------------
Total------------81
Thus ,average is 16.2,which is still higher than average
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

steve
pl see ,my earlier post on this thread, where it was mentioned ,6+ may come between 16th and 17th October 2010, as occurred at Indonesia on 16th
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The problem here is your use of averages.

The numbers are so erratic that the average is not representative. It's too large because of only one or two of the values.

Roger

sdelapp said...

"steve
pl see ,my earlier post on this thread, where it was mentioned ,6+ may come between 16th and 17th October 2010, as occurred at Indonesia on 16th
Amit 8:24 AM"

Yes Amit,
I did note that, so i guess you can put that one in a win column also.

However, I do believe the next 6+ should pop in the next several hours, later this afternoon, if my theory holds up.
We shall soon see.
Steve
10/17 15:40utc

Roger Hunter said...

Steve;

Quit wasting your time this way.

I can check your theories much quicker than waiting years to see what happens.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
please..please.. hold it. We are here for peaceful discussions.
Theories have never been accepted at first go,including -
Earth is not at the centre of Universe-or-Alferd vegeners Plate tectonics.Plate tectonics developed very early in 20th Century and accepted some where in 1960s
Regards
Amit dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you have a theory involving planetary positions and quakes, which makes more sense:

1) make predictions based on the theory and see how accurate they turn out over the next several years

2) use a computer to make retrodictions and test them against historical quakes.

I assure you, #2 will save a LOT of time.

Roger

sdelapp said...

Well amit,
my latest window has closed with only the one hit (out of three) and it was the one that we both agreed on (albeit for different reasons).

So I find that interesting, but hardly conclusive, and will pay more attention to planetary stations as a possible eq indicator.

However, curious as this is, I must agree with Roger that your recent post of time periods for 15 planetary stations of Jupiter and Saturn and your conclusion that this demonstrates a higher average for these events, has an obvious flaw.

Of the 15 scores you report, only 2 of them are significantly higher than average, and those 2 scores are VERY much higher than the others, greatly altering (or SKEWING) the distribution. When a score is so extreme as that, it is refered to as an OUTLIER SCORE, and any statistician will quickly dismiss any final conclusion from such a finding.

After all, it's just common sense. If you eliminate just those 2 scores, the other 13 immediately come down to the expected average of 13 quakes for a 30 day period.

So, what should be of interest is what was going on in those 2 periods that quake activity should be so high? That is what needs to be looked at.

Clearly there is a connection with the moon, but it's the trigger, or 'final straw' so to speak, but is only effective if the eq activity is up, obviously for some other reason.

Anyway Amit, i'm not wishing to discourage you, but to point out that what would really help you would be some training in statistical proceedures, so that you could better organize you data in meaningful ways that will indicate when a pattern exists and when it does not.
Later
Steve 10/20 11:30utc

sdelapp said...

Anyhow, since it's been 7.0s that I've been studying, maybe that's what I should be predicting.

I do believe I see a six day period, October 24th thru 29th that should have a 7.0+ quake therein.

We shall see what we shall see.
Steve
10/20 11:40utc

AMIT said...

hi
Here is my September record of prediction as against NEIC quakes (6+)
Predicted dates are as follows
September-2010
1) 23rd---0810 UTC----6.4
2)26th----1615 UTC----6.5
3)30th----1330 UTC----6.7


And actual dates are as follows (6+) quakes
please see 26th and 30th prediction as against 26 and 29th (2 quakes )
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE-Q 2010 09 26 121241.71 -5.31 133.92 30 6.0 MwGCMT 3FM .......
PDE-Q 2010 09 29 171051.36 -4.91 133.71 10 6.2 MwGS ... .......
PDE-Q 2010 09 29 171127.77 -4.98 133.73 35 7.0 MwUCMT ..M ....

watch November for major quakes (7+)
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Actual quakes for September 2010


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE-Q 2010 09 26 121241.71 -5.31 133.92 30 6.0 MwGCMT 3FM .......
PDE-Q 2010 09 29 171051.36 -4.91 133.71 10 6.2 MwGS ... .......
PDE-Q 2010 09 29 171127.77 -4.98 133.73 35 7.0 MwUCMT ..M .......

AMIT said...

hi
My October record is like this

Predicted dates are as follows

OCtober 2010
1)7th----0610 UTC-----6.9
2)9th ---1815 UTC-----6.7
3)23rd---0130 UTC---6.6

Actau quakes are

on 4th ----6.3
on 8th----6.4,6.0,6.2
on 25th----7.7,6.1
regards
Amit