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Monday, October 25, 2010

Indonesia eartquake(7.5) on 25th October 2010, a cyclone and Volcanic eruption

Hi
Please note a big quake, a huge cyclone and an eruption all at one time.Time and again it is noticed that on a given date of major quake (+ or - 2 days) , a cyclone as well as volcanic eruption occurs. No body have noticed or bothered to analyze the events , as to why they occur simultenously.This was also noticed when the infamous iceland volcano shut the airports.That was also on the same day of big quake
This idea(theory) was previously posted on my blog. It seems no one would believe this theory.
The theory-extended theory of earthquake prediction-is termed as general theory of tidal forces.
Theory in a nutshell is like this
1) The tidal forces and accelaration /retardation (momentum change) is applicable at all levels ie
molten lava,earth crust, oceans ,clouds and atmosphere
2)In case of molten magma, it can can induce a quake
3) If the force is much higher,it can open up a volcano
4)The same tidal force induces high tide and low tides in oceans
5)In atmosphere, it can create a cyclone at low presure zone
The tidal forces create high density atmosphere at hightide zone and create low presure at low tide zone. The more the tidal force(ie when high magnitude quake is predicted ), the more the low tide also.
This low tide creates ,partial vacuum,and when the place is out of low tide force, air rushes to occupy the patial vacuum. Now, when such air ,flows over ocean with specific temperature (26 to 28 ,if I am correct) it gethers latent heat of ocean waters and produce a cyclone.
6) In atmosphere it can create a huge cloud brust,at high pressure zone
So the dates given for major quakes are also prone to Natural disasters
Amit Dave

38 comments:

sdelapp said...

Prediction:
"sdelapp said...
I do believe I see a six day period, October 24th thru 29th that should have a 7.0+ quake therein.
Steve
10/20 11:40utc"

I think I'd like to tweak that forecast a little more..... I think we will see another strong quake, 6.5+, in this same window, but it should be on the 28th or the 29th.

Steve
10/26 20:45utc

sdelapp said...

Amit said:
"Please note a big quake, a huge cyclone and an eruption all at one time.Time and again it is noticed that on a given date of major quake (+ or - 2 days) , a cyclone as well as volcanic eruption occurs. No body have noticed or bothered to analyze the events , as to why they occur simultenously.This was also noticed when the infamous iceland volcano shut the airports.That was also on the same day of big quake"

That's quite correct Amit. It's only one set of Planets, and they have a LOT of work to do :>)

Steve

AMIT said...

hi
Since we have major quake on 25th October ,I expect a quake (at least 6.5+) on 2nd or 3rd November 2010
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
On 18th November 2010 Jupiter is stationary and on 19th Venus is Stationary.
As both are changing direction closely ,as well as both are closer, we may expect series of major earthquakes ranging from 6.8 to 7.3
watch the dates already posted and cycle quake dates also
regards
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
It is true that the quakes generally
occurs at fault levels or say at Ring of fire,except one two cases like one at Latur -India on 30Th September 1993.
However,this is only because ,the earth crust is weaker at boundaries and any pull will rupture it first (like a weakest link in a chain breaks first)
Thus, I believe, there were quakes first on earth ,then ruptures then plates and later plate motions.
What we are doing is treating effect ( plates ) as the cause of quakes.
please see the link ,published in Times of India, which poses some question to Plate tectonics

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/science/Ancient-insects-find-shows-India-wasnt-isolated-50mn-yrs-ago/articleshow/6828378.cms

some question to plate tectonics
1) why quakes at places not on boundaries?
2) why clusters (more major quakes on given date/s)?
3) Why two or more quakes on plate boundaries not related to each other on a given date?
4) How the first plates separated from each other? If it was due to heat currents , those currents would not have allowed the plate to formed at that place first
5) Have any body calculated the force required to break open the earth crust of some hundred kilometer thick? Can heat current produce such force?
6) Why there are pre-shocks before a major quake?
Plate tectonics need to answer such questions before it can predict the earthquakes
Amit
Amit

gb said...

why there no word from roger hunter .atleast now he has agree about amit 's prediction
regards
gb

AMIT said...

hi
My October record is like this

Predicted dates are as follows

OCtober 2010
1)7th----0610 UTC-----6.9
2)9th ---1815 UTC-----6.7
3)23rd---0130 UTC---6.6

Actau quakes are

on 4th ----6.3
on 8th----6.4,6.0,6.2
on 25th----7.7,6.1
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi My September records are

predicted dates are as follows

September-2010
1) 23rd---0810 UTC----6.4
2)26th----1615 UTC----6.5
3)30th----1330 UTC----6.7

Actual quakes are

1)on 26th -----6.0
2)on 29th ----6.2,7.0

watch the accuracy
regards
Amit

sdelapp said...

Well, I think I am becoming satified with my new method. We've had a 7.7, a 6.1, a 6.2, in my 6 day window, and a 6.4 was just reported (late !) within 15 hours of my adjusted date.

The predicted 7+ and a spate of majors.

steve
Prediction:
"sdelapp said...
I do believe I see a six day period, October 24th thru 29th that should have a 7.0+ quake therein.
Steve
10/20 11:40utc"

I think I'd like to tweak that forecast a little more..... I think we will see another strong quake, 6.5+, in this same window, but it should be on the 28th or the 29th.

sdelapp said...

And as an afterthought....
It's worth noting the volcanic activity during that same period also....

Both major geological events.
Steve

sdelapp said...

Hello all...
I'm thinking the next round of signifigant eq activity will be Nov 5, midnite, +/- 24hrs with
6.3+

Steve

AMIT said...

hi
Watch quake of 6.1 at Indonesia again on 3rd November 2010 at 11.18 UTC. This is exactly as per -cycle quake theory - already predicted
A major quake - aftershock -after 7/8th Day.
Please note ,if the combination is strong enough, the 15 days aftershock can also be noticed
Watch November 2010 for Mjor quakes and Eruptions
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

sdelapp;

OK Steve, are you ready to put your new theory to the retrodiction test?

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
please note recent volcanic eruption at Indonesia,which is three times more powerful than last weks eruption

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/11/2010114053853632.html
I fail to understand ,why such striking co relations are termed as co -incidence or -by chance.

While explaining -cycle quake theory- I have stated that,
--I would go to the extent of saying that,where there is quake of 7+ have occurred ,people should be discouraged to live in the hoses on 7/8th Day
As Jupiter and Venus both changes the direction in November 18 and 19th , (also they are closer) all combination(aspects of 0,90,180 and 270 degrees ) of Moon with Sun, Jupiter and Venus are potent for major quakes
The day on which Moon is closer and in aspect will be most potent
Watch out
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
watch 6th November 2010 (+ or - 24 Hrs) for major quakes , eruption and cyclone
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's the problem; you DON'T understand.

When you add more and more things to consider and more and more angles of importance, all you're doing is multiplying the chances for a hit.

And that reduces the value of actually getting a hit.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am not adding any angle or aspect ,nigher now nor any time earlier.
I have been saying all through the blog he same thing.
1)Moon aspects (opposing, joining or squiring ) ie 0,90,180 and 270 degrees with Sun or planet changing the direction are prone dates
Right Now also I am saying the same thing. Only thing is in November Jupiter and Venus both changes the direction in two days so the cycles my combine and give a big quake.
And as the dates are prone for other natural disasters, those should also be observed(if required we may only observe these dates)
Roger, how if ,you watch the dates and keep aside he theory ,for the time being?
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I can't very well do that.

The theory is essential to getting the probability which in turn establishes the significance of the hits.

What would be the point in bragging about your hits if they had a 90% chance of happening?

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Fresh eruptions in Indonesia on Friday

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/13-die-as-Indonesian-volcano-erupts-again/articleshow/6875018.cms

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I am sorry Roger. But every time I give some details ,you feel I am changing the rules .
Believe me ,I have a fixed set of rules and they do not change
regards
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

All right, maybe the things you mention have been there all along.

But the fact remains; the more indicators you have, the more likely a hit becomes and the less it is worth.

Also you lower the predictive value. Planets change direction frequently and maybe it's Jupiter this time and Mars next time and maybe none of them another time.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Indonesia eruption is increasing,defying volcanogists prediction that,it will ease out after first eruption on 26th October 2010.
please se the link

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/11/201011601513955961.html

Moon at closest on 6th November 2010, and aspects of Moon with Jupiter ,Venus and Sun has not allowed the volcano to subside.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Following is the number of planets changing direction(except mercury) and 6+ quakes per year (2001 to 2010)

year- number of planets -quakes 6+

2001-- 8 --- -- 137
2002 --- 5 ---- -- 140
2003---- 5---- ----155
2004----- 5---- ----157
2005----- 7---- ----151
2006---- 5---- --- 153
2007--- 7---- ---- 196
2008---- 4---- ---- 180
2009---- 7---- ---- 158
2010 (till Nov)-7---- 155

Planets when away gives less quakes. Average quakes (6+) are 145
AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

This table does not support your theory.

2001-- 8 --- -- 137
2002 --- 5 ---- -- 140
2003---- 5---- ----155
2004----- 5---- ----157
2005----- 7---- ----151
2006---- 5---- --- 153
2007--- 7---- ---- 196
2008---- 4---- ---- 180
2009---- 7---- ---- 158

2007 is the only year that does what you say. The rest behave the opposite.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
While I was writing the blog,I was aware that, this comment will come.
1)Total 60 cases of diection change in 10 years ,hence 6 per year.
2) The list of 7+ quakes are as follows
2001---16
2002---13
2003---15
2004-- 16
2005---11
2006---11
2007---18
2008---12
2009---17
Now ,we can see anomaly is less.
Further , I am compiling the data for last 25 years or more ,for clear picture
As per USGS , on an average 7+ quakes are 16 (7 to 7.9--15 and 8+ 1)
Roger, As you say , one or two hit or miss does not matter in broad spectrum of data
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

HIi
Further details of quakes 5+ are as follows.USGS average is 1470 quakes of 5+ per year
2001---1351
2002---1341
2003---1358
2004---1671
2005---1844
2006---1865
2007---2270
2008---1948
2009---2030
2010(till 8th Nov)-1710
If + or -20 % variation is not considered, only two questions left
why ore quakes in 2006 and 2008 ?

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You need to quit worrying about averages.

Too many things influence them. Increases in network capability, presence or absence of great quakes with many aftershocks.

Roger

gb said...

amitji
i have a question for you.are there any fault lines in india .if so where . iheard malabar area their are some fault areas. recently earthquake 4.5 in rajasthan gave me this doubt. i know kutch regions and himalayas are sensitive

AMIT said...

ROGER
Thank you very much. I will keep in mind your valuable advise
Thanks again
Regards
AMit

AMIT said...

gb
I do not have ready list of all fault lines across India. However, you can get these from net search
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
we are approaching two dates
18th November -Jupiter stationed
19th November 2010-Venus stationed
As per theory ,before these dates and after these dates ie up to month end ,there will be major quakes.
Luckily on 15th Moon is far away from earth,hence ,magnitude may be slightly less (though 6.5+).
However as the Moon closes in and reach Perigee on 30th,may induce major quakes (7+)
Probable dates are
16.11.2010
21.11.2010
23.11.2010
29/30.11.2010
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Recent Yemen swarm is very unusal.
Last two days have seen some series of quakes at Yeman.
We need to be careful till November end (16th ,21,23nd,29/30 th ),when such unusal seismic activity is noticed
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I am uilding my web page (under construction)

htp://earthquakeprediction.webs.com

Amit

AMIT said...

It is
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com

AMIT said...

hi
please note quakes in November 2010
All 6+ quakes are on 3rd,10th ,16/17th ,23rd and 30th November 2010(except on 16/17th ---5.9).All quakes at 7 to 7 and half day intervals. This proves cycle quake theory
It is also noticed that ,after a major quake of 7+ the aftershock sequence will be like this
1) after 12 Hrs( Due to place at opposite side of the tidal force)
2) after 24 Hrs(Same situation but less potent-same location but less potent)
3)after 7 and half days ( 90 degrees movement of Moon, a major aftershock)
4)after 15 days (180 degree movemt of Moon
After 15 days (max),the situation fades away
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Fiji quake of 6.3,today,28th December 2010,as predicted.
please see my web page for detail

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/

AMit

AMIT said...

hi
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ for theory ,dates (calender) and links (earthquake forum)
Amit

Anonymous said...

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