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Friday, March 11, 2011

Japan Earthquake.8.9 and tsunami-11th March 2011

hi
please note Japan major quake and tsunami.Actual predicted date is 20th March 2011(please note no place is predicted).However, as per cycle quake theory(7/8 day before and after) a quake of 6.5 to 6.8 was expected (not 8.9)
Now ,some of the questions plate tectonics and seismologist need to answer to people ,who have lost their loved ones ,and hard earned money,are
1)If major quakes occur due to build up stresses on the plate boundries,can we not measure the stresses? and predict the dates?
2)Even after spending millions of Dollars ,in research (in the same direction) ,if we can not predict the dates,Do we need to stop and rethink?
3)Is is not possible that,there could be other reasons for major quakes?(other than plate tectonics)
4)Are we wasting tax money paid by the people?
5)Shall we support any alternate theory,or at least have a look at it?
6) Are we treating effect(plates) as the cause (of quakes)?
Think out of the box
Amit

66 comments:

R.M.Mittal said...

I fully agree with you, I have already commented that dates upto 20th March 2011 are disaster prone. Moreover daughter of my friend saw the earthquake in dream a day before occurance

Anonymous said...

dumbest thing I've seen you post on here yet. What about the 7.2 that happened 3 days ago, 11 days early and well before your cycle quake theory window. There have been 101 >+5.0 quakes in that area in 3 days. How can it not be attributed to the fault it sits on. Stop bending the rules to make it look like your preditions are correct when in fact you missed the mark by a long shot. And also stop saying the other planets have an effect, the moon and sun are correct, because physics already shows they have no effect on the earth. In fact if they all lined up to pull on the earth at the same time it would raise the tide by a couple of millimeters.
Ray

Anonymous said...

regarding #1. How do you expect them to measures stresses of millions of tons 20 miles below the surface and under water? think with your brain not with science fiction books.
Ray

gb said...

i pray a lot everyday to make this world safe , but failed when i saw tsunami in chennai it was like a nightmare for me .but seeing this it broke me down actually i started crying as soon as news flashed out .amit as you say whole world of scientist who work as sesmologist have to answer for those who suffer . my humble condolence to all who missed their loved ones
gb

AMIT said...

Ray
Thank you very much.
1) If we can not measure,how do we say it increases to a breaking point ,prior to a quake?Is that simply a guess?
2) plates are supposed to be moving due to convection current ,inside the crust
As we know the area ,thickness and average density of say Eurasian plate,have anybody calculated the force required to move the plate ?
Can heat/convection current produce such force?
Amit

Anonymous said...

It has to increase to a breaking point, otherwise there would be no earthquake, it's not a guess, it would be a guess to say where it will happen at a certain time.
Yes they have calculated the forces required to move plates, its enormous. More than any measuring device we have can measure.
I have watched alot of documentaries on several plate mechanics and theories and read enormous amounts of science data. I am very intelligent and like reading about the earths mechanics and science. That is why I said the tidal pull of other planets is no more than standing next to a large mountain on earth.
Plate theory describes the movement of the plates and shows that earthquakes and volcanoes happen at their boundaries due to the build up of stresses. The moon and sun's tidal pulling could very well have an effect on what triggers the release, I agree on that.
As of this entry they are up to 125greater than 5.0 quakes on their fault line in 3 days. What has released all this energy into so many quakes would be a complete guess. But obviously there has been alot of energy stored up over time.
Ray

Anonymous said...

I totally agree with Ray.
Amit, pls stop this nonsense. You did NOT predict the 7.2 quake that happened a few days ago. This was not a <4.5 quake. You failed to predict this. You also failed to predict the 8.9 quake. And now, to insult our intelligence, you write "please note Japan major quake and tsunami.Actual predicted date is 20th March 2011"
NO, you did NOT predict this quake. It is more than a week to 20th March. To claim this was the quake you predicted is phony. You are lying -- your DATE is wrong AND the MAGNITUDE is wrong.

If your method could not predict an 8.9 quake then it is totally useless.

Look, HUNDREDS of quakes happen EVERY _WEEK_. If ANYBODY chooses a day at random (say, 15th of each month), then with your +/-1 day UTC window, s/he is bound to be as (in)accurate as your predictions.

If you missed a prediction, pls be honest enough to say your method failed and don't try to make it look like you predicted it.

Anyway, like I said, your method is totally useless since it could not predict an 8.9 quake.

-- Omo

Anonymous said...

In view of the happeningsthis month, I update my predictions for earthquakes for this month as follows: (This is part of the competition)
1. 16-22 March every day at least 6R should be coming somewhere except
2. 18th March where I expect a 7.0R
3. 24th or 25th or BOTH dates 7.0R
4. 27th March 7.0R
5. 31st March 7.0R

Regards,
Remi

Anonymous said...

How does such a large, unexpected pressure release that's just happened in japan consequently affect future eathquakes. we've also had some volcanic eruption in Hawaii lately. does this lessen the pressure and make the next days a nd weeks less volitile? or does it mean the pressure is bigger than most thought and will be worse over the next couple of weeks?

Anonymous said...

The quake you predicted for the 20th is this the one in Japan? Wont there be a quake on and around the 20th March then as NZ are afraid of quakes hitting here on thse days.

AMIT said...

Omo/ray
All those people who post on my blog are intelligent ,and respected.I also believe people will treat others with the same respect.This is not a battle field,it is just a discussion.As I have technical background(Engineering Graduate) I will not push any thing with is not scientific or at least logical
ok . ok let us talk about physics

DO we know everything about gravitational pull? How does it travel? Why ,in first place a heavy body should attract another less heavy heavy body?
It is believed ,the gravitational act on a space time fabric.
There are several flaws in the theory

Gravitational force is considered one of the weakest force ,among four. However,it is solely responsible for planetary motions ,formation of stars and galaxies
I think ,we do not know all the things about gravitational force. It is believed ,it act ,hypothetically,on space time fabric.I have my own doubts about this hypothesis. Say,how do we explain effect of gravitational pull on a body by multiple bodies.
May be I am not expert on the theory.
There are some unexplained issues also like
Extra fat stars
Pioneer anomaly
Dark flow
Accelerating expansion etc...etc...
SO what we have been seeing practically should be studied w.r.t
existing theory
There are rival theories also
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I ,here by ,again state ,that the date predicted is 20th March 2011(7+) with + or -1 day window. I never give more than this window period.
If you believe ,his does not come under cycle quake,it is also fine.
What I have stated ,was prior to predicted date before and after 7/8th day (some times 14/15th also) quakes occur,however ,they are smaller in magnitude of main quake
This ,8.9 is unexpected
This also means ,there will be quakes on 19/20/21st also.
Please note I do not predict places
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Now some questions to plate tectonics
1) Why there are ,major quakes on places other than plate boundaries ( like Latur -India -1993).Intra plate faults ,are devised only to explain this anomaly.When mother (main )plate moves in one direction ,how there will be relative motions of intraplate faults?
2) Why ,there are several major quakes (6+) on a given date all over the globe? and on different plate boundaries?
3)How much force is required to move a plate,which has restricted movements?
4)Why ,say , we have 7.2 quake two day ago on the same spot where we have 8.9 later?Was energy not relieved during 7.2 quake?and why?
5)How the first tectonic plate was formed?What forces acted to break the plate ,first time during earth evolution? Was that ,heat currents?If heat currents have so much force,it would have not allowed the plate to be formed ,in first place?
6)Are quakes and eruption (on another plate) related in any way?
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,
My theory expected the 18th and was supposed to be very strong. But I forgot to publish it. So I predicted it but forgot to post it. So dont loose your cool there is mileage to working out the stats and as far as explanation, consider the sun too.
Smiles
Remi

AMIT said...

Remi
It is ok.As long as window period is not open changes can be done.I never loose my cool.My theory has been rubbished hundreds of time.
You can this link,where , a geologist is all attack on my ideas,after one of the daily news paper-DNA-published my theory

http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/07/astrologer-issues-challenge.html


http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/08/geology-lessons-to-astrologer.html

so ,Remi please do not worry. And I presume ,our theories are more or less on same ground
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Remi
This is that article in a daily News paper

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_bmc-engineer-floats-theory-for-earthquake-prediction_1168280-all

Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit,
I've always believed in your predictions, and when I saw that there's no earthquake prediction 'till March 20th I felt "relaxed".
You failed to predict 7.2 magnitude quake in Honshu, and you failed to predict 8.9 magnitude quake .. I don't know what's going with you but It looks that your predictions aren't accurate like they were in the past .. And I think it's absurd your pretense that you've predict this quake 7/8 - + ..
Regards and much respect to you :)

helena said...

I have read all your posts carefully, Amit. I cannot see where or how you have justified your prediction of any earthquake on any day (yes, I read you do not predict place). What a pity you can't predict earthquakes. You could have saved the lived of thousands of people in Japan on Friday.
I am wondering if you have the courage of your convictions sufficiently to allow you to post this comment.
All good things
Helena Collins

Anonymous said...

Amit, yes what I do is similar, I have some extra indicators, but I have not worked as long as you have. I have been doing some stats, they look good...I am sure for you too but you have to be more methodical. LOL. Keep smiling as I think Earthquake prediction will become like weathr forecasting. We are developing the poor mans predictive tools. Challenge is to do the Physics... But lets beat the hell out of USGS
Remi

AMIT said...

Helena collins
Thank you very much.
Please rest assured ,as long as the post is not vulgar or direct abusive (to any body other than myself ) I will allow it ,unedited.
Regarding my 20th March prediction (+ or - 1 day) we need to observe.
Cycle quake- says ,there could be quakes ,before and after 7/8th day .
Yes, I do admit the 8.9 was not expected
We need t wait till 21st March
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Remi
You could be right. If it was 11th ,the next major could be 18th also
.But I will stick to 20th (+ or - 1 day)
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Halena Collins
I am surprised,why people do not ask to scientists and seismologist,who work only on the topic for years and spends millions of Dollars ,paid as tax by people like you and myself.
regards
Amit

arbab said...

hi amit....
i think every thing in universe exist in pair for stable or controlled environment...if sum thing among the pair undergoes increase or decrease in its action or function leads to destruction or loss of stability...as we know charges also exist in pair similarly energy and forces also exist in pair....when we talk about gravitational force so there are forces acting on its opposite direction for stable working of environment,if such opposite forces increases in its strength then it leads to weightlessness....when we talk about tidal pull which is a force acting on earth to pull things towards itself,so by saying that does it effect gravitational force or particularly gravity acting on earth?does it causes loss of stability by acting on its opposite forces?does it then lead to EQ and movement of tectonic plated apart from convention heat forces?as ive read that in sum of the EQs the earth's crust displaced upwards from its mean level,is it due to increased tidal pull forcing more then gravity itself acting???thnx

AMIT said...

arbab
I am sorry .I could not understand the exact nature of your question.
Yes,When tidal pull exceeds,it lifts and even breaks the crust (partially) during earthquakes
When the crust is teared open (generally from the dormant mouth of Volcano) ,it becomes eruption.Both are due to tidal pull and momentum change of molten magma
These are my views and plate tectonics may not agree to it
regards
Amit

arbab said...

sir amit....
i was asking that energy,forces etc always exists in pair(its my opinion that every thing in universe exists in the form of pair)...like when there is force of attraction then there must be sum force of repulsion too for stable working of any system ok so if there is sum increase or decrease in any of these forces of attraction or repulsion the system loses its stability okay...when we talk abt gravity which is force of earth to attract things towards itself,there r several forces acting against gravity too at the same time n if those opposing forces increases it leads to weightlessness isnt it....tectonic plates r placed in their specific position,so when we talk abt tidal pull,does it effect on gravitational force?n by effecting gravitational pull does it effect in movement of plates by this process??its my view that tidal pull might not act directly on plates to move them apart but by effecting force of gravitation it effect the displacement of plates n m asking ur view abt that does tidal pull effect gravitational force n leading to EQ's as by destabilizing system???....if yes then the effect of tidal pull is indirectly on tectonic plates(as most ppl think that tidal pull is not enough force to displace plates)...!!!thnx

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here's what I've found so far for the 1990-2010 period.

I would appreciate it if you or anyone could check the accuracy.

In the list, a hit is something happening on the same day as something else.

Roger

8793 Days.
302 Quakes.
Odds on a quake: .034

260 Full moons.
7 Full moon hits.
Expected full moon hits: 8.9

259 New moons.
9 New moon hits.
Expected new moon hits: 8.9

279 Perigees.
13 Perigee hits.
Expected perigee hits: 9.6

8793 Declination.
54 Declination hits:
Expected declination hits: 302.0

14 Venus direct.
0 Venus direct hits.
Expected venus direct hits: .5

13 Venus retrograde.
1 Venus retrograde hits.
Expected venus direct hits: .4

10 Mars direct.
1 Mars direct hits.
Expected mars direct hits: .3

10 Mars retrograde.
0 Mars retrograde hits.
Expected venus direct hits: .3

20 Jupiter direct.
0 Jupiter direct hits.
Expected jupiter direct hits: .7

19 Jupiter retrograde.
2 Jupiter retrograde hits.
Expected jupiter direct hits: .7

20 Saturn direct.
0 Saturn direct hits.
Expected saturn direct hits: .7

20 Saturn retrograde.
1 Saturn retrograde hits.
Expected saturn direct hits: .7

0 1 2 3 4 5 CASES PER DAY
7590 72 8 0 0 0 # OF HITS
5798 1705 159 8 0 0 # OF CASES

AMIT said...

Roger
Two things I want to state
1) If you have considered ,the date on which planets are stationed ,for your calculations,it is not correct
The date on which ,the planet is stationed,the speed is zero.Hence ,accelaration (ie rate of change of speed) is also zero. Thus ,the momentum change (mass*velocity ) is also zero
What ,actualy required is ,the dates when planets is rtarding (slowing down) and accelarting (picking up the speed),ie prior to and after it is stationed
2) During Such 15 days before and after,the planet is sationed,(ie during retardation or accelaration)
chances of quakes are more.
Now out of these 15 days on both side(please note it is not + or -15 day window)when Moon joins ,opposes or squares the planet changing direction ,may trigger quake
regards
Amit
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

We cannot be sloppy. When acceleration is zero velocity need not be zero.
Remi

Anonymous said...

Also change in momentum is not mass*velocity
Remi

Anonymous said...

Respected Amit Sir and all,

I have similar theory like Mr Amit and we do communicate with each other like a colleague ( though I do believe the plate tectonic theory also ; they are complementary and not opposite. ) , my theory does show the possibility of quakes on 11th/12th March 2011; the reason is very low gravity and tidal pull also causes quakes. On 11th March Moon was quite away and it's phase was 7th ( less tidal pull ) . Sun was at 3 deg. south and most likely Latitude of quakes range was from 5 to 35 deg. north of equator ( quake occurred at 38.322 deg north LAT ) .
I will like to give example of Apr. 1906 San Francisco quake when gravity cast by planets and Moon was low ; great quake occurred that time.

Location can not be predicted by theories yet. next quakes can occur on or around full moon and new moon days from March to May 2011 (included ) . Also watch for around 10th Apr. and 10th May 2011. Note that location is NOT predicted ( can NOT be ) . Nations and people can stay alert.
I have experiences like Amit Sir that scientists do not listen to these theories, even though capable of predicting dates and magnitudes.
( NOT locations yet ) .
- Santosh Phadnis
Bangalore

Anonymous said...

Roger,
you seem to have 25 years and one day window right?
Remi

AMIT said...

Remi
1)But the reverse is true ie when velocity is zero(though apperent),accelaration is zero
2) Yes,I should be more precise in communicating ie
mass(v2-v1) is the change in momentum
3) I think Roger have taken omly date hits
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So now instead of a 3 day window you want a 31 day window?

Forget it; probability is too high to mean anything.

Yes, I was looking at a 1 day window in my tabulation which covered every day from 1990 to 2010 and every 7+ quake during that time.

Roger

AMIT said...

roger
I am sorry,you have completely misunderstood me and my theory
I have already mentioned-please note this is not + or - 15 day window.
During those 15 days,the day on which Moon aspects ,the planet,is the day (not all + or -15 days)
Whenever I give a date it is only and only + or - one day window(ie 3 day window)
What I was explaining was the process of selecting the date.
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So now you say stations are not important, just 90 degree moon aspects to them?

But 15 days either side of a station may have nothing to do with the moon's location.

I'm confused.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Roger,
8793 days is 24 years not 20
20 years is 7300 days.

Anonymous said...

Well the distribution of events is not random but Poisson is better. The calculations are too simplistic.

AMIT said...

Roger
1)Stationed planet is important ,because unless it become stationed,it can not change the speed and direction
But ,the date on which it becomes stationed is not important
Most important is the period during which planet changes the speed
2) I will give one example
suppose ,to day ie 16th March 2011 ,Jupiter is stationed
Then from 1st of masrch till today,when Moon aspects Jupiter is the trigger date(not all 15 days as window period)
Amit

Anonymous said...

Amit,
So far you got 2 out of 3 hits of the year, so thats pretty good going considering no other technique has done better. (scientific that is from the Geodynamic Institutions giving 705 certainty that an eartquake will occur in 300 years LOL)

AMIT said...

anonymous
Thank you very much.
What is surprising to me is,science and seismology have already concluded that,the quakes can not be predicted,yet we keep on pouring money in research on fault lines,stresses,strains etc.
What science /sesmology claims to have tested all theories,other than plate tectonics,,are ,to the best of my knowledge ,biased.
please treat these are my personal views and I do not intend to offend anybody or any branch of science
All I say is science should be open mindeded.Why are we holing on to the theories ,which ,we are sure ,will not give any results.
How often weather forcast have gone wrong? Still we say it is science.How many variables are involved in weather forcasting? Still we believe the forcast to be true.
Why do we need earthquake prediction either 0% or 100% correct?.Can not we start with ,say 60%?
Any way,thanks again
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please see USGS link for 2.5+ quakes during the week

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

pl note the quakes are well above 650.Which is too much.Though there are lot of aftershocks at the same place,650+ quakes is something unusal.
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit. Weather is extremely chill today from hot to cool, looks like the date few days before Sumatra quake in 2004. Here are my predictions.

(March 18, 2011 UTC 23.30)
(March 19, 2011 UTC 04.30, 11.20, and 23.20/)
(March 20, 2011 UTC 11.13, 12.13, 13.06*** and 23.20)

beware of 6+ quake, and storm surge.
Can I predit the place? JFF.


Joe

arbab said...

hi amit.....
m w8ing for ur answer....

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

This time I located the stations for Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, both retrograde and direct. Then I looked at 3 day windows centered at 15 days before and after each station.

7670 Days.
302 Quakes.
Odds on a quake: .113

14 Venus direct.
13 Venus retrograde.
10 Mars direct.
10 Mars retrograde.
20 Jupiter direct.
19 Jupiter retrograde.
20 Saturn direct.
20 Saturn retrograde.
126 total stations.
252 total windows.

16 hits before station.
15 hits after station.
31 Total hits.
28.5 Expected hits.

Slightly better than chance but not significantly so.

All this as before uses 7+ quakes from 1990-2010. Only one hit per window was allowed.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,stay strong and keep to your convictions.If some of the tax payer dollars were put into this type of research,in conjunction with the current main stream research we could start seeing some great leaps in earthquake prediction.Have you seen these predictions of earthquakes based mainly on the suns influence?http://www.youtube.com/user/thebarcaroller I'd also like to leave you with another theory on why the Japan earthquake could still have been influenced by the moon. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/astronomy/story/46909/why-i-think-the-extreme-supermoon-may-have-played-a-role-in-the-earthquake.asp Best regards Bundy.

AMIT said...

Roger
Now ,If I fine tune all variables (some of which you have still not considered -like distances of planets from earth),it may go well above average or random dates odds
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please see USGS link for 2.5+ quakes during the week

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

The quakes are 700+ ,which a rare case(if Iam correct- At least I have not seen so far)

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You can add all the factors you want and I'll still bet good money you won't beat chance.

The more things you add the higher the probability of a hit, so the expected number of hits goes up.

The problem is your theory is wrong.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
With due repect ,I strongly oppose this statemet
--- ---- ----
The more things you add the higher the probability of a hit, so the expected number of hits goes up.
--- -----
Roger, Is there ay rule regarding number of indicaters to be used in a hypothysis? Is there any restriction for that?


This statement,of yours, is only (and only ) correct if I try to do analysis of quakes ,those are already occured and try to fix various indicaters to that,after the incidence
If I give dates ,well in advance,after considering all indicaters,the queastion of numbers of indicters used by me is irrelevnt.Either I use only one indicater or hundred indicaters,is immaterial,as long I give dates well in advance.
So ,by using more indicaters ,does not mean more chances of hit.
I would like ,other learned friends openion on this issue
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

Respected Amit and Roger,

I have also researched in quakes and planets' and Moon's gravity , for last 18 years ( after Latur quake in Maharashtra, India which was on 30th Sep. 1993, quake which was due to low gravity ) . I have similar theory using gravity and planets' positions (angles , 3 axis positions, distance etc. ) and Moon's phases, distance, declination etc. note that location can NOT be predicted yet by our theories, but some day people can succeed in that also. Note that Man was not able to fly , now people can go on Mars using technology.
Amit Sir became my friend as he had similar interest and theory , as truth was quite similar.
I will clearly say that Roger is assuming something and saying that Amit's theory is wrong , might say that Santosh's theory is wrong also ! Please check past very great quakes. All are as per our theory only :-) Check quakes on 18th Apr. 1906 San fransisco ( low gravity ) , 22 May 1960 Chile quake and tsunami (high gravity ) , 27 March 1964 Alaska tsunami quake ( low gravity ) , Kobe quake 1995 ( low gravity) , 26th Dec 2004 Indoneia tsunami quake ( low gravity ) , 11th March 2011 Japan ( low gravity ) , 20th march 2011 and around ( high gravity ) , Apr. 3rd and 10th apr. 2011 ( low gravity ),
18th Apr. 2011 ( high gravity ) , around 1st May 2011 ( very low gravity and great quake possible ) till 10th May 2011 ( possible very great quake of 9+ Mag. and destruction ) .
Please understand the reason behind quakes , do not just say statistics and chance ! With very high or low gravity , space itself bends differently , this causes the pull or push or free action . This results in tidal waves , solid waves ( though minor ) ; give rise to quakes as tectonic plates will move ! They move in different ways.

Amit Sir, Einstein is 100% correct in relativity theory ! gravity does bend space and time. Hence even time travel is possible using great gravity.
We had predicted many quake dates in last 6 years but no one listened correctly ! I had hence showed that even century old quakes are also as per our theories ! We can say that even thousands year old quakes would be also as per our theory only ( except that they would be with less magnitude , say 1 Mag. less , as due to many reasons now the stress on tectonic plates is increased ) .
I have calculated that past great catastrophe occurred on Earth around 9796 or 9776 B.C due to gravity of planets ! There were great quakes, volcanoes and Tsunamis might have occurred that time ; hence there are tales in every religion of great Flood and darkness ( due to volcanic ash in some areas ) !
Please study our theory first and then you will find it is correct ! there is NO chance that great quakes would have occurred as per our theory in past if it was wrong !
Just see , as per our theory , what will happen in year 2020, June and July month !

I hope I had provided enough pointers for you to check and understand the truth !

- Santosh Phadnis
( Software professional) ( also philosopher )
Bangalore

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you use many indicators and find that each quake has a different one in effect you will not be able to predict because you will not know which one will cause the next one.

So if you predict for all indicators you will have high probability and many misses.

Now if you study (say) 20 indicators and narrow it down to 5 (for example) that always seem to work, then you may have something.

If that is what you are doing then you should not post predictions until you have a method you think will work. And I will be happy to assist as I have been doing.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Santosh;

Greetings!

I extend the same offer to you as to Amit. If you will specify your method in sufficient detail that I can duplicate it, I will test it.

You are programmer too? What language do you program with?

I started with FORTRAN, moved to PL/I and finally TrueBasic because I needed graphics. That was a LONG time ago!

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have already narrowed it down to 7 indicators,which I generally use.
I think,it can be duplicated by everybody
regards
Amit.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

7?

Ok, I have moon, venus, mars, jupiter and saturn. What's missing? I have perigee and declination.

Is that the 7 you mean?

But almost all have 2 windows apiece. Perigee has only one and declination has 3 so you're talking about 14 windows, 3 days each. That's 52 days in one group, about 1/7 of the year.

I'll have to get them all active to get the full count but it's going to be a lot.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

OK, I have New/Full Moons, Perigee, 3 declination values, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, each with two windows (15 days before and after).

All windows 3 days long, 13 windows in all.

Is there anything I need to add or subtract before doing the final count?

Roger

Anonymous said...

Again you still use other planets as a source of tidal influence. Using the laws of physics and assigning the suns tidal force equal to one this is the effective tidal pull of the sun, moon and planets when they are at their shortest distance from earth.
Moon 2.21
Sun 1.00
Venus 0.000113
Jupiter 0.0000131
Mars 0.0000023
Mercury 0.0000007
Saturn 0.0000005
Uranus 0.000000001
Neptune 0.000000002
Pluto 0.0000000000001
The tidal force of venus is nearly 10 times greater than Jupiter yet you still quote Jupiter as a factor.
If you added all the tidal force together (perfect planetary alignment) the tidal pull on earth would not raise the oceans tide more than a couple millimeters.
Using the moon and sun as indicators of tidal pull in earths crust is a good start but I think you are wasting everybody's time thinking Jupiter(or venus which is stronger) all on its own has an effect.
Ray

Roger Hunter said...

Ray;

I agree but would add the sun and moon to the list of ineffective elements.

Only the moon has shown even the slightest influence on quakes and that is so small as to be inconsequential.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Roger,
I only partially agree on the moon and sun triggering overstressed zones and would include only them in the scenario because they actually do exert a tidal force on the earth.
Ray

Anonymous said...

Respected Roger Hunter , Amit Sir

I had done programming in Cobol, Pascal and C. In recent years I had done avionics software testing for A380 of Airbus and also other tasks for quality related on projects. I can not mention my company name here.
Roger, are you a seismologist/geologist ? You may take previous great quakes ( I have mentioned some in earlier post ) and additional very major ones you want and check for planets positions , gravity of planets , Moon's gravity which shall include perigee/apogee , Moon's phase ( new and full and 7/8/9th phases) and tidal pull ( high and low ) , 3 axis planets position ( what I mean here is Sun Earth line will be 1st axis . Now from other planets join Earth point , you may extend that point beyond also. For this consider sun , moon , earth , Jupiter, Venus and Saturn only . Mars is optional only but it can add weight with venus or Saturn or Moon. If all above are fit in 3 axis ; then major quakes occur.
Note that any axis shall be taken with 30 degrees ( 1 zodiac ) .
Also note that for some great quakes you need to see planets for past 6 months or so whether they caused great gravity ( high / low ) In such case stress on tectonic plates increases and quakes do occur at next iteration of gravity ( low/ high ). Example in Sep. Oct 2010 very high gravity existed from Jupiter, Venus and Moon simultaneouly some days. But the great 9 mag quake tsunami occurred in Japan on 11th March 2011 at low gravity from Moon and planets. Please note that all these things I have checked like a testing method ( input values and expected output - dates of quakes and magnitude. Please note that exact location can NOT be predicted by my theory yet. Some ranges of Latitudes ( within 30 to 40 degrees from Sun on both sides ) can be calculated ( but there is only 80% guarantee in that LAT calculation and actual quake latitude ), not bad yet as no one else has done that also ( except Amit Sir ) . Longitude can NOT be calculated , hence exact location can not be calculated yet !
We do hope that USGS California , Japan , Indonesia, Peru Chile scientists will accept our theory first ( as they require it most in time ). The importance/urgency to accept our theory is now ( in some cases it was already like for japan ). Even if they do not accept , how can they alert their people if possible quake dates are not even known and believed ? Note that Apr. 2011 and May 2011 will have great quakes as per my theory ( and Amit Sir's theory ) , but note that I calculated magnitude higher as per my theory and it has occurred most times like that (last example quake on 11th March 2011) .

As mentioned earlier my theory clearly shows that many regions on Earth were destroyed due to very great quakes, volcanoes, tsunami ( Flood, ancient people called ! ) in 9796 B.C or 9776 B.C . that was caused by planet's and Moon's gravity only , those great quakes must be of 10 or 11 Magnitudes as per planets gravity and positions that time , it was NOT caused by any asteroid , nor by imaginary Nibiru :-) I can not disclose some details of past and future things on blog like this.

Best regards,

Santosh Phadnis
India.
__________________

Roger Hunter said...

Santosh;

Yes, I was a geophysicist/programmer with the USGS in Golden, CO, now retired.

As you are also a programmer you must appreciate that I can do nothing with the general description you have given.

If you can specify exactly what you want I would like to test it.

But it seems to me that you are being so generous with your orbs and date ranges that almost anything will be considered a hit.

If you do not wish to publish this so publicly, you can email me at:

rogerh906@gmail.com

Roger

Sándor-Ágnes said...

5)Shall we support any alternate theory,or at least have a look at it?

Yes, we must do so! One possible way is by working out a new science-based and innovative earthquake prediction research strategy, exactly as Frank Press proposed in 1964, but never completed in the US. You may find some fresh ideas about that in my paper published online in the Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (Elsevier)
"Szakács A. (Article in Press, Accepted Manuscript) Earthquake prediction using extinct monogenetic volcanoes: A possible new research strategy. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.06.015". Print isdue of the journal with this article is due April 2011. If you send me your e-mail address I will send you the pdf copy of that paper. My address is szakacs@sapientia.ro

Alex Szakacs

Joseph2237 said...

USGS isn't interested in earthquake prediction. They won't even accept the fact that dogs have a sensory awareness to detect a coming quake. I think its deplorable but one you have a accurate detection system in place why would you need thousands of geologist trotting around the world check sesimic charts.

joseph2237 said...

Found a link to Scientific America article about gravity you may like.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/blog/post.cfm?id=the-geoid-why-a-map-of-earths-gravi-2011-04-01

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit,

although Roger Hunter correctly evaluated that your predictions are almost random (11% vs 12-13% in total), you are right in your attempt to earthquake prediction. The gravitational pulls of Moon, Sun and planets realy trigger the earthquakes, but you mixed apples and pears together.

You must analyse the specific areas separately. Than you can see that the EQ in Chile (Feb 27, 2010) was triggered in the same tidal phase as Tokohu EQ (Mar 9+11, 2011), but with oposite directions of the pull. In the case of Chile EQ the movement of upper layers was to the west and in the case of Japan EQ the movement wes to the east.

If you will mixed both types of forces together, you obtain random results. If you will divide them according the area or focal mechanisms, you will obtain higher than random predictions. See the papers of Sachiko Tanaka when analysed only normal or reverse EQs in the subducted area.

Pavel

AMIT said...

hi
Here is one more observation.These are my personal observations and views
The date predicted is selected as per theory
1) On the date,earthquakes occur at high tide axis due to internal tidal pressure,which breaks the earth crust partially
2) If ,it can break open the mouth of volcano ,an eruption occurs
Both 1) and 2) above occurs at high tide axis at the given time
3) On the predicted date the low tide is also more ,which is 90 degrees apart of high tide axis.
Now,the earth crust also experiences the tidal pull.If a subduction fault comes under low tide axis(on the given date) it triggers sudden slip of subduction plate,by pulling apart both the plates.Thus occurs major quake at subduction fault during low tide forces acting on it.These subduction quakes are more potent
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Strong earthquakes of 6.6 and 6.2 hit North coast of Japan on 16th September 2011 as predicted on this blog under-earthquake prediction for September 2011-
Amit