Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, March 06, 2011

Tarapaca,Chile eathquake ,6.2 on 6th March 2011

hi
Despite Moon at Apogee (far away),we have to day Chile Earthquake of 6.3.This means ,by cycle quake theory,the days after 7th/8th and 14th /15th may get quakes
Thus ,Moon on 19th20th March 2011 at closest and Full Moon,Jupiter and Venus faster and in close aspects,Mercury changing direction 30th March and joining Moon on 21st,Moon and Sun at same declination
are the reasons for a possible quake on 20th March 2011(+ or - 1 day)
If ,there is an Volcanic eruption during the period ,the magnitude may be reduced
But---But--Let me make it clear once again ,I DO NT PREDICT PLACE AND HENCE NOBODY SHOULD BE SCARED-
regards
Amit

22 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Since some think the moon phase and/or distance affects quakes, I took a look.

First I extracted all the 7+ quakes from the NEIC catalog for the years 1990-2010. There were 319 of them.

I put them in the correct day slot of an array (7670 days) and in that same array I put all the new and full moon days and all the perigee days.

Then I counted the number of times a quake fell on the same day as a moon phase, a perigee or both.

Results are that in 17 cases a quake was on the new of full moon days, in 13 cases it was on a perigee day and in 2 cases it was a day when perigee and new or full moon both fell on the same day.

Pretty pathetic I would say.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thank you very much.
Unlike Moon Man,my theory does not elusively depend on Moon phases or perigee
There are various other factors to be considered like planets stationery ,aspects of planets and declinations
If you take,any one criteria for evaluation ,it may not give conclusive results
regards
Amit

Anonymous said...

Where is the website of the so called moon man?
Cheers

Anonymous said...

Amit, you have no theory explaining anything. Only stats indicating possible links between event A say and resulting earthquake which almost cetrainly are INDIRECT. In fact as Roger quite rightly points out those links between cause and effect are ON THEIR OWN weak and in some cases pathetic. But putting together a combination of causes and effects such as full moon AND perigeee or Station planets etc increases it seems the likelihood of the result. That should be done statistically. However here we have a running test this year. However a physics based explanation will not be offered with this experiment and this is really what is needed for understanding the predictability of the resulting earthquakes from those 'empirical rules'. Amit is not offering any physics explanation, hopefully a set of rules which work repeatedly.
Remi

AMIT said...

Remi
let the date speak
Remi,How many hits of this year ,would you treat as above average or above random selection of dates ?
regards
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm building a table of all factors by day from 1990 to 2010.

So far I have mag 7+ quakes, new moons, full moons, perigees, and stations for venus, mars, jupiter and saturn. (dates of retrograde and direct)

What else should be included and how many are required for a quake in your theory?

Roger

Anonymous said...

Amit,
Excatly my point. There is only a possible statistical link between dates and quakes but no expalnation as to why. For example the recent 7+ earthquake was not predicted. By the end of the year we will see if your collection of indicators (this is it a collection of indicators-no theory) have statistical significance.
Remi

AMIT said...

Roger
There are few more things
planet distance from earth
Earth distance from Sun
Aspects of Moon with Planet changing direction
Jupiter saturn ,venus aspects
extreme declination of sun and Moon
Same declination of Sun and Moon

we can not say,off hand ,how many of them are required for a major quake.It depends on case to case and potency of two or three indicaters.
regards
Amit

Mr. Tony said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5Tw1jd6lpI&feature=channel_video_title
Saw this video and his predictions are awesome I admit.
The only problem for now is that he predicts 2-3 days before the earthquakes.
Remi

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5Tw1jd6lpI&feature=channel_video_title
Saw this video and his predictions are awesome. Only problem is that he predicts 2-3 days before.
Remi

AMIT said...

hi
Here is one more debatable remark
please see following link of USGS

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

This link gives a map and total quakes 205+ or plotted on it for current week
Now , a lay mans thumb rule ,for major quake to occur in the week is like this
If the total number of 2.5+quakes are more than 215/220 ,the week is prone for major quake
Please-- please note that ,these are just my observations and my own views.
This remark my lead to debate
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

sorry
Typo error
-2.5+ are-and not -205+ or-
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

As I suspected, if I add all those to the table there'll be one or more on any given day.

This will allow you to "explain" any quake but only after the fact.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
That is why ,I said ,let us watch dates.When dates are given in advance ,such question does not arise
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Do you really understand that chance allows a certain number of hits?

The question then becomes "Do you get more hits than expected?" and the answer is - NO!

Roger

Mircea said...

Okay, I'm trying to use your theory here and having a little trouble with the process.

I'm looking at your prediction for a quake on March 20.

My software shows Jupiter reaching maximum speed on March 24, before starting to decrease speed. Two days later on March 26, the Moon will square the Sun to start the 4th Quarter.

As I understand it, the earthquake will occur 7 days prior to March 26 or between March 18-20, is that correct?

Now, the April 3 earthquake I believe is based on Mercury going Retrograde, and then the New Moon occurs on April 3 (New Moon occurs roughly at 1631 hours EET - Eastern European Time), is that correct?

And then the April 17 date is based on Mercury going Direct, and the next Moon action is the square with Sun on April 24, and so for that we go back 7 days taking us to April 17, is that correct?

Just trying to understand the procedure

Anonymous said...

8.9R in Japan. Was this a hit or a miss?
Remi

Anonymous said...

Amit,

How come you did not predict the quakes this week (the ones in Japan)? Even a magnitude 8.9 quake is NOT on your list of predictions.

This shows your predictions are totally useless. I mean, if you could not predict a 8.9 quake, even without giving the location, then your predictions are not useful. They are just chance hits. I could also have a table and say there will be earthquakes on the 15th (+/- 1) of every month and my predictions will be as accurate as yours since HUNDREDS OF QUAKES ARE DETECTED WORLDWIDE EVERY _WEEK_.

Pls STOP trying to fool people -- except you might genuinely be deceived yourself.

-- Omo

AMIT said...

omo
Yes sir.Agreed ,the cycle quake was not expected 8.5+,please see my prediction blog
http://earthquakepredictionbyamitdave.blogspot.com/
Actual date predicted is 20th March 2011.However,in the first comment cycle quake was mentioned(7th/8th day prior and after the predicted date.
please note ,the quakes predicted are 7+ .and those do nt occur on daily basis

Let us observe evry months 15th till December 2011,as per your prediction for 7+ quakes
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
If I ask ,what the science and sesmologist are doing?After putting in millions of Dollars ,if we can not predcit,the stresses developed on the plate boundry,to this much extend,what is the use of plate tectonic?
Why is it ,that , we are still clinging to such theory,which can not predict the major quakes?
DO we not have any system to measure the stresses developed on the plate boundries?

whay such questions are not asked to science and plate tectonics? Why so much tax money is put in research ,which does not work?
Why we do not want to spend some money ,in thinking out of the box?
Are ,we sure ,there can not be any reason other than plate tectonics fro such major quakes?
ALL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES NEED TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS TO PEOPLE WHO HAVE LOST THEIR CLOSE RELATIVES.
THINK AGAIN
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What you don't understand is that science has examined all your ideas and found them lacking long ago.

Additionally science has examined many other ideas and found them lacking too.

Quakes just can't be predicted. The information needed cannot be obtained by any affordable method.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
If we are so sure ,it can not be predicted,we should work only on developing earthquake proof buildings ,shelters and. Rest of all research sould be discontinued
regards
Amit