Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, January 01, 2017

Earthquake Prediction for January 2017

hi
  Happy New Year

Here are some or the probable dates for 6+ earthquakes for the month of January 2017

1)4th January 2017..........6.3

2)11th January.................6.6

3)26th January .............6.4

Time window is  + or - one day

Amit


42 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Soundly defeated by the December random predictions (including your own!) yet you keep on going.

What does it take to convince you?

It's just chance!

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
In terms of total quakes in window period I have 8, where as
Curiou has 10,Amit 2 has 9,and Anonymous has 10. You have 5
In terms of window Hits ,I have all five,Curiou has all 4,Amit 2 has all 3,and Anonymous has 4
In terms of date Hits I have 4,Curiou has 4,Amit 2 has 3 date Hits and Anonymous has also 3 date Hits
I do not know, I I have failed.
Even you count only total quakes in window period three predictors are ahead out of 11.
We have set norms ,if more than 6 are better than ,me I am below average, if 5 or 6 are better than average and less than 5 are better than me, I am above average
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You can't just count hits when everyone has different odds.

You must compare hits to expected hits which shows that you were slightly better while others were WAY better - by chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Can you give rankings?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

already did. number 6 and number 9 were the two best.

Both random guesses and far better than your real predictions.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Ok. It means I am the third.

AMIT said...

Roger
Ok. It means I am the third.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

More than that, it means your method is wrong.

When you can be beaten by random guesses it's a pretty good bet that what you are doing is also just random guesses.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
But it can be said below average.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

These are random predictions and you fall within the distribution. That means you are random too.

If you had a working system your results would be above the rest.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Why is average important?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You only said I am below average
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
It was seen three sets of dates
1)Curiou
2)Amit 2
3) Anonymous have scored more.
So, this month I request Curiou and Anonymous to give three random dates.
My random dates for the month are
9,14 and 17
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Really?

What's it take to convince you?

You've failed every test thus far.

If you pass the next one will that prove you are right?

NO! It will only show that anything is possible by chance - on occasion.

Correct methods are always correct.

Roger

AMIT said...

Here is one more .6.9 at Fiji on 3rd ,a hit prediction.
Roger, like wise, there are several failed attempts to send space shuttles on Mars. ,and now one reach there, it could be by chance only
Amit

AMIT said...

All success in world are by 50% chance.
Whether prediction are less than 50%
Accurate.After detailed analysis by super computers,whether bureau can not say " there will be 2.6 inches of rain at LA,between 4pm to 6 pm." and even if it does rain, it is by chance
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I am embarrassed for you. Your last two posts show you do not understand probability theory.

When you toss a fair coin the odds on heads are 50%

When you roll a fair die the odds on any number are 1/6, never 50%

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I know little of probability ,as taught during engineering course.
Whether prediction at LA ,is like tossing the coin, either right or wrong, it has no six options,unlike rolling a die
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I know little of probability ,as taught during engineering course.
Whether prediction at LA ,is like tossing the coin, either right or wrong, it has no six options,unlike rolling a die
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You're forgetting degrees of right, as in wrong mag, wrong location, wrong date and how far off in each parameter.

Roger

Phillip Kennedy said...

Ok back on track. For the "laymen" out here. In terms of percentages what did we all get? I'm still sceptical, but can see how a random could get higher in a single month. Could they get a higher percentage month after month is another thing. In my "laymen" books if you can consistently get above 80% then you could be onto something. Just my thoughts.......

Phillip Kennedy said...

Yes. I agree here.

AMIT said...

Philip
During January 2016 to December 2016, I have given 45 dates for 6+quakes in + or - one day window.There are 34 hits in it.It roughly comes to 80%, 78% to be precise
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Phillip;

It's not that simple. Percentage of what?

hit preds/total preds can be misleading.

I prefer hit pred/expected hits

Amit's real predictions scored 9 hits (#8) but the expected number was 7 hits
That scores 1.3 (roughly)

But #9 got 11 hits where 3 were expected, scoring 3.7 (roughly)

Roger

Anonymous said...

Amitji can you predict place where 6+ earthquake doest come.such as i think Asia Europe and north America dont have any 6+ earthquake in next 7 days. only PNG and south america can have high seismic activity.


AMIT said...

Anonymous
There are many, but what is the use of giving such place
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm working on a program to evaluate all your 2017 predictions.

It's an extension of the 11 predictors program.

Are you interested in the individual months or just the final result for the year?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks.
You are the best judge to decide, which is more statistically correct.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

More is always better of course but current status updates are ok too.

I should point out that the results I've posted are not the best test possible. They assume a uniform distribution of quakes which we know isn't true.

however, if you can't pass this simple test you certainly won't pass the much tougher test.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Aaaarrgghhh!

While tinkering with my PC I accidentally deleted all my programming files. Thousands of them.

Fortunately I had a recent backup on DVD but unfortunately it was not recent enough for the programs I've developed for your predictions.

So I'm rewriting them.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Sorry for that. Doesn't matter,this time I will do manually
By the way, one more hit .7.3 on 10th as against 11th prediction
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more hit.6.4 at Soloman Island to day ie 10th, a hit prediction.two Hits in a day
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
5.1 earthquake at NZ, Willington rocked
Pl note prediction date 11th of January 2017
Amit

Anonymous said...

You can't claim a 5.1 as it's under 6 according to your rules.
There was a 6.2 near Fiji today - so I take it that's a miss?

AMIT said...

Anonymous
Yes.You are right. It was not claim ,and also 6.2 Fiji not predicted.
Amit

Anonymous said...

Roger do you believe earthquake can be predicted.

Roger Hunter said...

No, not so far.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today, you missed it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ooooo!

Just missed a mag 8.0

Tsk!

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Last window failed.

Roger

Anonymous said...

obviously like your website but you have to take a look at the spelling on quite a few of your posts.

A number of them are rife with spelling issues and I to find it very troublesome to tell the truth however I will surely come
again again.

AMIT said...

Yes Sir
Will try to modify /improve
Amit Dave