Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, March 05, 2017

Earthquake Prediction for March 2017....Now posted

Hi
Probable dates for March 17 are
1)7th March.......6.3
2)13th March....6.6
3)21st March.....6.4
4)29th March.....6.5
  Window period +or -one day
Locations not predicted.
Regards
Amit

29 comments:

AMIT said...

Hi
Here is today's NZ quake report.
http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/90131268/real-earthquake-far-out-into-ocean-sets-off-reports-of-north-island-ghost-quakes--
Now,it says quake was at depth of ,446 KMS.
How on earth,the seismologist can explain this?
Are there plates at such a great depth.
Or the plates has nothing to do with quakes?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Deep quakes are due to subduction, where one plate dives under another.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
As far as my knowledge goes, subduction is a process by which,one plate goes below the another plate and then melts in the magma.
Now,we have about 100km of plate thickness. Let me understand the mechanism.If one plates goes under another,here are some questions
1)The plates going below does not melts till 450+ kms?
2)Ok.if it does not melts till the depth of the quakes,what exactly happens.Does it melts ? Why does melting shakes both plates from such a depth.
3)If it melts,whether it is gradual along the descending depth or sudden?
4)If it is gradual why it disturbs and shakes both plates?
5)If one plate is going below another,it must shake and move top surface of both the plates,then why quake at depth?
6)Does this mean one plate goes below so smoothly,that it does not affect the top of plates,till it reaches 460km?
If any one have answers of these questions,please let me understand
Amit

AMIT said...

Contd...
One more point
If the plate moves at a rate of 5cms per year....It will take 70 lacs year to descend by subduction up to a depth of 450 kms. So for these 70 Lacs of year,the plate keeps on descending without melting and suddenly melts at a depth of 450km.
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
I presume,there are no answers to these questions with Siesmologist.
In that case, we have to re-evaluate age old plate tectonics theory.
My presumption is.....

Plates are there,and they may be moving ,however,the fact is....
Plates are due to quakes and quakes are not due to plates
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Ok....
I will give one probable answer in favour of seismologist.
There is Toal about 300 km descend of plate ,other than thickness.
Now,suppose the descending plate do not get dissolved till it reaches total 400+ km, and one fine day the top portion of plate suddenly dissolve, giving bottom mass a free fall.This may induces ripple shocks in magma.
Now what are the chances of plate not dissolving for 350+ km and 70 lacs years. Which material of Earth sustain such huge tempature and pressure for such along period
Any clue?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sorry for the delay; medical problems.

As I understand it, melting is not the cause. It's a phase change, where structures collapse due to heat and pressure.

Subduction rate depends on location. It is not a constant.

Google may give better answers.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The question remains
1)Phase chase is alternate name of melting
2)At what depth this phase change occurs?Just below the plate or at 450+ km depth?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit

Here's some education for you.

http://www.learner.org/interactives/rockcycle/change.html

Melting is not the only phase change involved.

Roger

naveed naeem said...

nice post

AMIT said...

Annenberg LearnerMENU


Interactives -- Rock Cycle Pick another interactive:

Go



Introduction | Types of Rocks | How Rocks Change | The Rock Cycle Diagram | Test Your Skills



How Rocks Change
Introduction
Does it seem to you that rocks never change? For example, if you find a chunk of granite today, can you expect that it will still be granite at the end of your lifetime? That may well be true — but only because our lifetimes are very short relative to the history of the earth.

If we take a step back to look at geologic time (which focuses on changes taking place over millions of years), we find that rocks actually do change! All rocks, in fact, change slowly from one type to another, again and again. The changes form a cycle, called "the rock cycle."

The way rocks change depends on various processes that are always taking place on and under the earth's surface. Now let's take a closer look at each of these processes.



Heat and PressureSee how a rock is altered when it's subjected to heat and pressure under the earth's surface.
Start
Heat & Pressure
What happens to cookie dough when you put it in the oven? The heat of the oven produces changes in the ingredients that make them interact and combine. Without melting the dough, the heat changes it into a whole new product — a cookie.

A similar process happens to rocks beneath the earth's surface. Due to movements in the crust, rocks are frequently pulled under the surface of the earth, where temperatures increase dramatically the farther they descend. Between 100 and 200 kilometers (62 and 124 miles) below the earth's surface, temperatures are hot enough to melt most rocks. However, before the melting point is reached, a rock can undergo fundamental changes while in a solid state — morphing from one type to another without melting.

An additional factor that can transform rocks is the pressure caused by tons of other rocks pressing down on it from above; heat and pressure usually work together to alter the rocks under the earth's surface. This kind of change, which results from both rising temperature and pressure, is called metamorphism, and the resulting rock is a metamorphic rock.



Next


About this Interactive | Glossary | Rock Cycle Site Map
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© Annenberg Foundation 2016. All rights reserved. Legal Policy


Roger
This is the complete text

It says
At abour100to200kms depth ,the temp is hot enough to melt all rocks.


Question is ,how does it reaches 500+ km without melting?

Roger,though I am an engineer,you can treat me as a layman,and please explain in few sentences

AMIT said...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_of_focus_(tectonics)

Here it says the process of deep quakes is not understood yet.
And.....And...We are dam sure of plate tectonics and virtually closed the doors (and windows) for all other theories
What a science?!!!!!!!
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm a seismologist, not a geologist so a Google search is in your best interest.

Another possibility is that the depth is not located correctly altho Neic would be reluctant to admit it.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The converse is true too. Rock can be molten at very shallow depths.

This happens when pressure is reduced by buckling and results in volcanos.

Roger

PS: Those "prove you're not a robot" tests are getting to be a nuisance.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The converse is true too. Rock can be molten at very shallow depths.

This happens when pressure is reduced by buckling and results in volcanos.

Roger

PS: Those "prove you're not a robot" tests are getting to be a nuisance.

AMIT said...

Roger
I will check if I can bypass that test
"Prove you are not a robot"

Sometimes, I do not understand such questions
What is the harm if robot post on a blog? and why would it do so unless programmed like that
Right question should be
Prove you are not asleep or drunk or in your senses
Whatever, it is just a joke
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.0 quake at Nicobar today ie 14th,
Pl watch the accuracy of prediction
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your score so far; 50-50

5th-Miss
14-Hit
14-Hit
19-miss

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's getting worse.

It ignored my last (today) post.

Roger

Anonymous said...

hi
This is a trial post by me, (Amit) to check as to whether it is working properly o not
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
one post (above) by me without sign in (as Anonymous) seem to be okay
pl try and let me know if any problem still exist
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Test post.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Seems to work; no proof required.

Many thanks!

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Results so far.

You made 4 predictions. One is still open (29th)

There have been 5 qualifying quakes so far.

2 of them were in 1 of your windows so you have 2/5 quakes and 1/3 windows with 1 left to be examined.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
One more hit.Not only hit ,it is date hit and 6.5 + magnitude hit also
Amit

AMIT said...

sorry
I did not mentioned quake
6.6 on 29th march 2017 at 4.09 UTC at Russia
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correct. The 29th is a hit

So it's 3/6 quakes and 2/4 predictions.

Still chance; 50:50

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correct. The 29th is a hit

So it's 3/6 quakes and 2/4 predictions.

Still chance; 50:50

Roger

AMIT said...

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Amit