Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, March 29, 2012

Earthqauke predicion for April 2012

hi

Following dates are prone to earthquakes/eruptions

1 ) 6/7th April 2012----------------6.5
2) 15th April 2012---------------- 6.3
3) 22th April 2012-----------------6.2

watch he dates
window period for date + or -one day
window period for magnitude + or -0.3
place not predicted
Amit

38 comments:

Piyoosh Rautela said...

On an average around 150 +6 magnitude earthquakes are recorded every year. So there does exist 41 percent probability of an area or the other being affected by a +6 earthquake on any given day.
So what's so great about these predictions unless these can tell you which are is to be hit.

AMIT said...

Piyoosh
Yes. There are nearly 150 quakes of 6+ every year.However,if observed these quakes occur in clusters,ie several on one day all over the globe. Thus while averaging out wedo not take in to account such potent dates.March 2012 is one of the example
Some of my predictions are 6.5+ quakes,odds for which are less
Besides odds for,two or more consequtive hits are stillless
You may check theblog for 7+ hits also
Predicting place is possible,in principle.However we need to have time accuracy im minutes.Besause,foreveey four minutes earth moves one degree.Resultant pul ,thus can not pin point place accuracy
Moreover,giving all three aspects ie date,mavgnitude and place may amount to spreading roumers and is an offence under
National Disaster Act
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
As stated earlier ,an aftershock,( a cycle quake -as I term this) occurred at Mexico after two weeks.
chances of aftershocks every 7 th day , till potent positions dissipates ,is termed as -cycle quakes-
I fail to understand , why we ignore ,such striking incidences, and only try to find answers in plate tectonics.
Beauty of plate tectonics is, it firmly believes ,quakes can not be predicted. With this mind set ,how on earth are we going to predict major quakes?
Think out of the box
Amit

Anonymous said...

National disaster act apply for india,not for other country.you can predict places outside india at least zones.

AMIT said...

hi
A step forward ,I give here two probable time, for the next quake.Let us first observe the time.Place accuracy is possible ,if we have time accuracy of + or - half an hour
1) 6th April 2012------1930 UTC
2)7th April 2012-----1330 UTC
Amit

Anonymous said...

Sun is moving to northen hemisphere.gravitional pressur increases in himalya range.A deadly 8.1magnitude earthquake will be going to hit pakistan karanchi around 21april .

AMIT said...

Hi
It is not correct to give location.I do not agree to any location prediction.
Watch only dates
Amit

Anonymous said...

How will you prove your idea without giving location.every authority demands location to helf any earthquake research program.here we discuss our research ideas not predicting officialy or publicaly.

AMIT said...

Hi
6.2 quake at PNG,16.16UTC.
Watch the time and magnitude accuracy

AMIT said...

Hi
Original prediction was 6/7 thAprl.ie 12noon 6 th to 12 noon 7thUTC.
One more potent time in this wondow period(+ or-1 day) is 8th ,12 noon UTc
Amit

su said...

hi sir
Is it true that a deadly quake is to hit on 21st april as some one says?
su

Anonymous said...

Good prediction ...... It really showed up .

AMIT said...

Hi
Indonesia quake 8.7 to day.11th April 2012
Yes.Maximum declination of Moon,with other potent position
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ironic that the great Sumatra quake fell between your first two predictions.

Rogr

su said...

hi sir
But I feel this month... some quakes are not predicted well by ur theory. Stede too we had a quake in some parts of China I guess. And today`s one in Indonesia was a deadly one. but it does not coincide with the dates u gave. pls explain.
Su

AMIT said...

Roger,SU
yes ,you are right. I am off by 2/3 days ., which can be treated as miss as per my own set norms( + or - one day and + or -0.3 magnitude)
I have not given due weightage to maximum declination of Moon between 10th and 11th. As alredy dtaed maximumdeclinations of Moon are potent dates ,provided other criteria is fulfilled.
May be I should give more time to detail analysis
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Two 8+ quake in a single day at same location is something plate tectonic can not explain ( at least to the best of my knowledge)
How come the second 8+ quake occur when energy is relieved in the first quake ?
Any explation?
Amit

su said...

hi sir
This is su
I dont discourage ur views. But I too wish U get lots of time to do ur research. And wish govt authorities take ur help and save lives. Do u c any more deadly quakes like this according to ur theory? And what determines the magnitude according to u? Pl explain.

AMIT said...

Hi
One more question to the exesting theory of plate tectonics.
Mexico also had 7.1 quake(modofied as 6.5 on the same day.
How these major quakes on differnt plates,occuring on one day can be explaoned?
Are the specific dates prone prone to major quake?
Or
Is it just a matter of chance?
Any idea?
Amit

AMIT said...

Su
Magnitude is decided byvariousfactors like
1)proximiry of Moon
2)Distance of earth frm sun
3)Moon declination,max willgive biger quake
4)major planets changing direction
5)Aspects ie relative angles between Moon and major planets
6)Moon at ewuator,because it is closer when on equator.closer the aspects,0,90and 180degrees willgive strong quakes
As magnitudes in Richer scale are logerathmic each magnitude is 10times stronger than the previous one.Thus -8 quake is 100ties stronger than 6.weneed to be careful in assessing the strengh of a given date
As this is posted while travelling,pl excuse me for some typo error
Amit

su said...

why so many quakes this month?

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, do you think earthquake is possible in Mumbai region on 13th April or 26th Jun 2012

AMIT said...

Hi
It is believed in plate tectonic theory that,mega quakes occur at subduction fault only.yesterdays Indonesia quske surprised scientist,how a strike slip fault could be so big.
Plate tectonic has to answer so many questions,before it can predict the earthquakes
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
1) I do not predict places. It is possible ,in principle to predict places,if we have time accuracy in minutes. Besides it is an offence (spreadig roumars) as per National Disaster Act , to give all the three aspects ,ie Date ,magnitude and place
2) Why so many quakes this month
* Mercury ,venus and Mars are closer to earth this month
* Mercury changed the direction on
4th April and Mars on 14 th (will change ).
*Whenever Moon makes an aspect with Mars /Merc ,may give quake
* On 10/11th Moon was closer to Earth ( This is not new ,evry month it comes closer at least once)
with this situation when Moon is at MAx declination ,in aspect with Sun, Mars or Merc and closer will give major quakes
two dates are to come
15th and 22 nd . one more for max declination ie 25th April 2012
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Two quakes(4.0 and 4.9 at Gujarat and Satara 9Maharashtra) on 14th April 2012
Amit

Guru said...

What you think of the possibility to hit BIG quake in New Delhi? in recent times?

AMIT said...

Guru
As mentioned earlier places can not be predicted,at least ,as of to day
Amit

Anonymous said...

pls predict if there is any possibillity of quake in kolkata !!!!

AMIT said...

No idea about place
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Vanuattu quake of 6.5 to day ie 15th April 2012, as predicted

I shall give a thumb rule for layman ,to check ,wheater the current week is prone to major quakes or not. I am aware that, by doing so , I will invite lots of comments against it, nevertheless I will do this

WAtch the map of USGS showing 7 days quakes carefully

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

See at the top of the map -total numbers of earthquakes on the maps-

If the number is
Greater than 250-----week under watch
Greater than 275---Alarming week
Greater than 300-----week is prone for major quakes

First watch and than comment (either for or against)

AMIT said...

Hi
Two major quakes at Chile,6.7 and PNG today,ie 18th April ,early moning
Thoigh it is slightly outside the window period
Amit

Anonymous said...

Earthquake prediction for pakistan karachi loc 66°E 25°N M 8.1 date 20 april 2012

su said...

Hey sir
If u dont beleive in plate tectonics... then the seismic zones dont bother u much. Am i right?
Su

AMIT said...

Hi
Place can not be predicted
Amit

AMIT said...

Su
Not exactly.There are plates and there are plate boundries.
Quaskes generaly occur at plate boundries.,becaise they are the weakest points.It is like a weakest chain link from where the chain breaks
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.6 quake at PNG ,to day ie 21st April,as against 6.3 quake predicted on 22nd
Amit

Phil said...

The April 22 prediction was bang on - even in terms of the Richter scale prediction. Congratulations Amit and best of luck

Anonymous said...

Pakistan earthquake prediction is now canceled.energy stored in himalaya range released in indoneshia quake.