Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

How to predict major Earthquakes ?....an invitation to software engineers to prepare suitable software

hi
 Here I shall give my theory in nutshell and the indicators which leads to major quakes.(6+)
(A) Theory
    very briefly it states that,like high tides and low tides in the oceans, there occurs similar and corresponding high tides and low tides in the semi solid/molten lava below the earth crust.
Whenever the pull exceeds certain limits and the resultant pull acts on the weaker crust or fault line,an earthquake occurs. The more the pull or weaker the crust (fault line) ,the bigger the quake
     Extension to this theory also states that, if the crust is completely broken ,or if the pull is acted upon volcano mouth,it may erupt. Further,if on a given date if eruption occurs,the magnitude of quakes will be less ,because the internal pressure is released by eruption
  In this theory Moon is the main trigger. When other indicators (mentioned below) are present and Moon Joins ,opposes or squares the indicators the quake may occur

(B) Prediction
  a) Determining month/s of major quakes
 b) Fixing the date and time of quake
C) predicting location of quake

a)  determining the month
  following indicators are required for selecting the month  in descending order
1) Jupiter closer...4.4  AU (Astronomical Unit which is equal to average distance between Earth and Sun)
2)Jupiter at Maximum declination....+ or - 22 or 23
3)Venus closer....0.4 AU
4)Venus at maximum declination...+ or -23 to 27
5)Sun closer......0.98 AU
6) Sun at maximum declination.....+ or -22 or 23
7)Mars closer......0.7 AU
8)Mars at maximum declination...+ or - 22 and above
9)Saturn closer ..........8.5  AU
10 Jupiter standstill...(changing direction)...
11)Venus stand still..(changing direction)
12)Mars stand still ..(changing direction

 more the indicators are present in a given month ,more potent the month is. from sr number 1 to 9 any two indicator can give 6+ quake. .If exceeds ,5 it may give 7.5+ quake( depending upon the crust over which it is acting

b) determining the date and time..( in descending order ie first one is most potent)

 the theory states that, Moon is the main trigger in almost all major  quakes. once the month is decided, find the Moon in that month for following
1) Moon at perigee...ie closest...ie 57 ER (Earth radius)
2)Moon at maximum declination.....+ or - 20 to 27 ( in that particular month)
3) Full Moon or New Moon ( also eclipse if any)
4)find the major indicator from a) above ie jupiter, Sun,Venus or Mars ,depending upon their strength ,..and then find the date and time of Moon JOing, opposing or squaring that potant indicator
5) Moon at equator and at node 

c) Location
   location depends either on Moon position or the the most potent indicator from a) above
the time(+ or - 2Hrs...because moon takes 2Hrs to move one degree) can be fixed from B ) above. Further at that time find the Moon position on Earth ( where it is overhead at that time) The Lattitude and Longitude ,where Moon is overhead at given time as well as 180 degree apart (other side of globe for tidal pull acts at both ends) ,is prone to quake
    OR
 The position of most potent indicator on earth (Lat long) ,as well as 180 apart are the prone locations
 Note
location accuracy also depend on the earth crust ,wher pull is acted upon at given date and time. If the crust is solid and no fault line comes under pull at that hour ,it can wait for few Hrs to fault line come under pull Or may pre pone the time as per weakness of crudt

cycle quake theory
 it simply says that, the chances of major aftershock is high where major quake (7+)  have occured after
 12 hrs
24 Hrs
7/8th day
15/16th  day
pl note Nepal had major quakes after 24 hrs as well as 15/16th day
Amit

13 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Haven't I checked all this before?

Anyway, I'll make a daily list showing the presence of all these indicators plus the location and mag. of 6+ quakes from 1973-2014.

There are so many of them it may be that nearly every day will have some.

I hope someone else will do the same so we can have an independent check.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The main point is more the indicatots ,biger the magnitude.
The values given are the most porent indicators. If the values are less ,lesser the magnitude.
Tidal pull is different than gravitational pull.
It can be calculated with distance,mass and diameter. However,I could not quantify the effect of maximum declination ie how much the pull is more if indicator is at max declination.
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
let me explain the logic and theory behind my cycle quake theory

Once a major quake 7+ occurs at certain location on a given date, the same location comes under tidal pull after 12 Hrs (opposite side of globe), after 24 Hrs (roughly, actually 24 hrs + 40 minutes for Moons lag),the same location comes under pull
while after 7/8th day, Moon moves 90 degrees and again squares the potent triggers ,hence aftershocks
similarly after 15/16th day , moon moves 180 degrees and goes to opposite side of the potent indicators,hence major aftershocks
This we have noticed in case of Nepal also
After 15/16 days or even after 3 weeks the potency of indicator reduces ( ie say Venus moves away from closest position) and aftershocks stops
Plate tectonics can not explain why the aftershocks of such high magnitude occurs, when everything seems to be cooling down?
Amit

AMIT said...

6.8 quake at Japan on 12th May.yet another date hit.
How many date hits are required for USGS to look in to the other theories
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
If all these indicators seems to be complicated for software to be developed ,I suggest simple exercise
From the following four indicators find month where
2 indictors are present
3 indicators are present
and all 4 are present
Take three months (the month of indicators and one on either side)
Find 7+ quakes in these 3 months and see if they are above odds

AMIT said...

Four indicators are
Jupiter closer
Jupiter at Maximum declination
Venus closer
venus at Maximum declination
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, I'll do the short test first.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I also believe,if December and January months happen to come among 3 months selected by indicators,it will give more
quakes.This is because two more indicators
(Sun closer and Sun at Maximum declination are also incorporated automatecally)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, I'll add sun too.

Roger

Unknown said...

Dear Friend
I am also working in the filed oof earthquakes predictions form last ten years surprisly I also find out some interesting facts in every earthquake via which we can predict every earthquake.

Sumit Suman said...

Let us join hand to solve earthquakes mysteries completly

Sumit Suman said...

Dear Friend
I am also working in the filed oof earthquakes predictions form last ten years surprisly I also find out some interesting facts in every earthquake via which we can predict every earthquake.

AMIT said...

Hi Sumit
Yes. we can work jointly
Amit