Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, February 03, 2018

Earthquake prediction for February 18

Hi
Following are the probable dates for major quake of 6+
1)8th.......6.3
2)15th......6.6
3)19th......6.5
4)26th......6.7
Amit

13 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

0/5 quakes, 0/1 predictions so far

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
A 7.2 Earthquake hits Maxico today .
A hit production
Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

A hit but just barely. Minutes before the window closed.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
7.2 quake at Maxico.A hit prediction
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Bad month for you.

Current score 1/6 quakes, 1/3 predictions.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

A hit today! 7.5 too.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I just ran a check on the odds of a mag 6+ quake within a 3 day window, location unspecified.

Guess what; it's 53.2%

This is based on all such quakes from 1973 to 2017

There have been 4 such quakes since yesterday, mostly aftershocks so your current score is 5/10 quakes in windows, 2/4 windows containing quakes, 50% either way.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You are not considering one thing ,though I say it will be ,6+ quake( being safer side is my mistake),,almost all of my quakes are either 65+ or even 7+)
So if you count odd of hits for 6.+ or 7+ that will be classified
Amit

AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sorry Amit, that won't work.

Of the 10 quakes so far we have four 6.0, one 6.1, one 6.3 and one 6.4

The other two were 7.2 and 7.5

So counting your way, only 2 hits

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correction;

The odds on a 7.0+ quake in 3 day window is 0.085 so you would expect to get 1 hit out of 4 predictions so you're still well within chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Either my stats is very poor or I am not able to get it.
Odds of 0.085 is 85 in 1000
Or 8.5 in 100
Or say maximum 10 in 100
ie 1 in 10
How come it is 1 in 4

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You made 4 predictions, each with .085 chance of success

.085*4 = .740 so you should get 1 hit in 4 tries (roughly).

You got 2 hits so you're slightly better than expected.

Small samples like this can be very misleading.

Roger