Hi
This month ,I could not post probable dates before start of the month and missed predictions Moon closest distance date is 2nd August 2019
Some of the probable dates for 6+ quakes are
1) 11th August 2019....6.9
2)14th August..,............ 6.7
3)25th August.............6.6
4)30th August.............7.0
Window period is +or - one day
Amit
This month ,I could not post probable dates before start of the month and missed predictions Moon closest distance date is 2nd August 2019
Some of the probable dates for 6+ quakes are
1) 11th August 2019....6.9
2)14th August..,............ 6.7
3)25th August.............6.6
4)30th August.............7.0
Window period is +or - one day
Amit
38 comments:
Amit;
Here are the results for 1973 to 2018, quakes 6+, with a hit being a quake on the same
day as one of the indicators.
Total number of quakes 5308
Total moon maximum distances 607
Total moon minimum distances 610
Total moon maximum distances hits 195
Total moon minimum distance hits 198
Total moon maximum declinations 615
Total moon minimum declinations 615
Total moon maximum declination hits 192
Total moon minimum declination hits 207
As you can see, it's all just chance. The moon has nothing to do with quakes.
Roger
Amit;
I can send you the entire file if you wish but it's over 17,000 lines
which would make a 100 page book if printed on both sides of the pages.
Roger
Roger
what we need to do is take 3 day window period in account.This is because Moon when reaches maximum declination/nearest and reverse motion from there, effects may be on previous or next day
Hence..
what we have is 1973 to 2018 total 45 years
(45*365)/3 =5475 windows
Total quakes 5308
therefore number of quakes per window period=0.97
now if we take Moon at maximum declination it is 615
hence window period days are 615*3 =1845
now we have to check in these 1845 days how many quakes occurred
say x quakes occurred
and find x/1845 is quakes per predicted window period
check it is 0.97 or more /less
Amit
Amit;
My mistake; the counts are for 3 day windows
Roger
Total number of quakes 6299
Total moon maximum distances 607
Total moon minimum distances 610
Total moon maximum distances hits 232
Total moon minimum distance hits 226
Amit;
Finally finished the program. Here are the results.
Total moon maximum declinations 615
Total moon minimum declinations 615
Total moon maximum declination hits 216
Total moon minimum declination hits 257
Odds on a quake within a 3 day window .611
Expected number of hits by chance 3848.7
Observed number of hits 931
I'd say this is pretty conclusive.
Roger
Amit;
What, no response?
Roger
Amit;
Why no updates?
Roger
Roger
I was hospitalized and in ICU for four days (due to fever and high blood pressure)
Today only discharged from hospital
Will revert back soon
Amit
Roger
Sometimes I do not understand how you have calculated
Say for example Moon at Minimum distance....
You say there were 610 such incedances
And only 198 quakes in them...
Now
We have total 45 years (1973 to 2018)
Therefore 45×12=540 months
Moon comes closest to Earth once every month so there could be 540 such days
Now if you consider 3 day window
540×3=1620 window days
Are you saying there were only 198 ,6+quakes in all those 1620 window period days pertaining to Moon at closest to Earth?
Similarly all aspects
Amit
Amit;
Sorry to hear you were ill and hope all is well now.
Yes, that's what it says. I'll recheck; errors are always possible.
Roger
Amit;
Yes, there are errors in my program which I will try to fix.
Unfortunately for you they are not in your favor.
The program was counting a hit whenever a quake was within 3 days of an indicator but I had not told it about the 1 hit per window rule, so it could count up to 3 hits per window.
I'll fix it and give you the new figures as soon as possible. It will take awhile as I'm tied up with losing my email address.
Roger
Amit;
Forgot to tell you; my email is now rh588668@gmail.com just in case you need it.
Roger
Amit;
Forgot to tell you; my email is now rh588668@gmail.com just in case you need it.
Roger
Roger
Why only one hit per window period of 3 days?
Because ,your total number of quakes 6299 include all 6+ quakes.
Make sure ,these 6299 quakes are only one in one window ,than and only than you can do this
Amit
Roger
There is even discrepancy in total number of quakes
Once you said it is 5308
And again it is 6299
Where as total windows could be 5475
Amit
Roger
But why you could not recover your e mail,with forget password?
Amit
Amit;
In the total file I counted 620 cases of moon minimum distances and only 199 of them had a quake in the 3 day window surrounding the minimum.
I did this "by hand", examining and numbering the cases. 1973 to 2018 is a lot of days to search.
With hits at 1/3 while chance is 2/3 (roughly) I think moon distance can be ruled out.
Roger
Roger
For your information ,I have tried to figure out ,first hand ,the Moon at Closest dates between 2010 to 2018
Results are
1) years 2010 to 2018....9 years
2) months............108
3) Moon at Closest.....120
Out of these 9 years actual quakes (6+) physically checked for two years
2017 and 2018
Results are
1) 2017....moon closest ..13
13×3= 39 windows
18 quakes(6+)
18/39=46%
2) 2018...moon at closest...14
14×3= 42 windows
18 quakes(6+)
18/42=42.8%
Now you decide what is the trend
Amit
Roger
Further ,this only one aspect gives above 40% results.
What could be the results ,if we take in to account more than three aspects at a time ,while predicting dates
Amit
Roger
one more year 2016
1) Moon at closest ....13
2) 13*3=39 window days
3) 18 quakes (6+) in window period
4)18/39= 46%
For the three years checked , 6+ quakes in Moon closest window period is more than 40%
Amit
Roger
As per your calculations Moon minimum distance hits are 226 total
we have 45 years
it imply that,
226/45 =5
Only 5 hits per year in window period of Moon at Minimum distance.And we have seen that ,there are 39 window dates in a year
5 quakes (6+) in 39 window dates , that is what you say
However, a sample three year data shows 18 quakes (6+) each of the three years
Amit
Roger
Sorry , you said 199 quakes (6+) in 45 years
that is still lower
199/45=4.4 quakes per year in 39 window dates
where as we have 18 quakes per year ( as per three years sample)
I will give ,physical calculation data for all 9 years first and if required all 45 years
Amit
Amit;
No, wait until I fix my quake file.
Roger
Roger
One more year 2015
Lowest score so far
1) Moon closest.....13
2) windows.........39
3) 6+ quakes in windows...13
4)13/39= 33%
Amit
Roger
By law of averages , the 6+ quakes in one year could be lowest be 10 per year
( Though we have 13 as lowest so far)
Thus 10×45 years could be 450 (6+ quakes) in windows where Moon is closest. Whereas you say it is only 199
Amit
Roger
One more year ,2014
1)total moon closest.....14
2) window days......14×3=42
3)6+ quakes in windows....14
4)14/42=33%
This is also low score ,but nevertheless far more than 4.4 quakes per year as you say
Amit
Roger
One more aspect
If I consider only one 6+ quake (though there could be more) in one window we have following results
2014 to 2018..
Total moon closest....67
Total hit windows......50(only one 6+ considered)
Amit
Amit;
Still working on the quake list, it's harder than one might think.
The file is HUGE, the entire NEIC catalog, cut down to just the quake info.
Breaking it apart to add something in the middle is a reeal task.
Roger
Roger
Ok
Undeniably believe that which you said. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the net the simplest thing to be aware of.
I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people think about worries that they plainly do
not know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the
top and also defined out the whole thing without having side-effects ,
people can take a signal. Will likely be back to get more.
Thanks
Roger
I think software should make things simple ,but it has become harder
By the time ,I can evaluate all 45 years physically
I have stopped work ,I would have reached half mark
Amit
Amit;
Hooray! I finally got the quake file fixed!
Tomorrow I can rerun your predictions and get the real answers!
Roger
Amit;
Now that I have my quake file fixed I need to know what program I was running to get the results I sent to you.
Unfortunately there are hundreds of programs associated with your predictions and I can't find the one I need. Did I give you any information such as program name that would help me find it?
Roger
Roger
Unfortunately ,I am not aware of the program you used for these results
Amit
Amit;
I'm still trying to fix my quake list. It seems like every time I think I'm done, something else goes wrong.
Roger
Hi
A quake of 6.3 at Oreganon on 29th August 2019,as against date predicted on 30th August 2019
A hit prediction
Amit
Amit;
Yes, a hit.
Roger
Roger
One more year 2013
One of the low score year
1) total Moon closest.....13
2)Toal quakes in year....142
3) Toal quakes in windows...15
4) total hit windows....6
so total hit windows/total windows
6/13
Quakes in windows / total quakes
15/142
Amit
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