Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Major earthquakes predicted for the year 2010

sir
pl observe following dates for major quakes (>6.5).All times in Indian Std Time (GMT+5.30 Hrs)
( place can not be determined correctly)

1) 15.01.2010 1400 Hrs 6.7
2) 18.01.2010 1300 6.6
3) 30.01.2010 1330 6.5
4)15.02.2010. 0730 6.6
5) 28.02.2010 1900 6.8
6)11.03.2010 1100 6.5
7)15.03.2010 2300 6.9
8)29/30.03.2010 7.0 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
9)11.04.2010 1300 6.5
10) 25.04.2010 2100 6.6
11)20/21.5.2010 6.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
12)05.06.2010 0400 7.1
13) 6.06.2010 0530 7.4
14) 12/13.06.2010 7.1
15)26.06.2010 1230 7.1
16)04.072010 0400 7.0
17) 11.07.2010 2300 6.8
18) 16/17.07.2010 7.1 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
19) 23.07.2010 1900 6.9
20) 26.07.2010 0500 7.1
21) 31.07.2010 0900 6.5
22) 10.08.2010 1100 6.7
23)12/13.08.2010 7.3 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
24) 24.08.2010 1300 7.0
25) 37.08.2010 1000 7.4
26) 01.09.2010 0900 7.0
27) 3.09.2010 1130 7.3
28) 8/9.09.2010 7.6 ( 12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
29)15.09.2010 1200 6.6
30) 23.09.2010 0900 7.2
31) 30.09.2010 1500 6.9
32)6/7.10 2010 6.6 (12Noon to next day 12 Noon)
33) 9.10.2010 2300 6.6
34) 20.10.2010 0930 6.9
35) 23.10.2010 0600 6.7
36)2/3.11.2010 6.6 12 Noon to 12 noon
37)16.11.2010 0530 7.0
38)21.11.2010 1200 6.8
39) 23.11.2010 1800 6.7
40)29/30.11.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
41)6/7.12.2010. 6.6 12 Noon to 12 Noon
42)21.12.2010 0830 6.8
43)27/28.12.2010 6.7 12 Noon to 12 Noon
In all 13% dates are given for the year to watch.

Expected accuracy os more than 75%
regards
Amit Dave








59 comments:

zi hafler said...

hi dave,
can you counter check if 29 jan a possible date for a strike?

AMIT said...

hi zi hafler
30th january is alredy mentioned . window period is +or-12 Hrs.
regards
dave

Rose said...

Dear Dave,

You state a few quakes to be from 12 noon to 12 noon the next day, does this predict 24hrs of shake at a 7.0 magnitude?

AMIT said...

Dear Rose
No.12 Noon to 12 Noon next day is a window period. The quake may occur any time between this period. Only few seconds of 7.0 quake is good enough to destoy Haiti.
regards
Amit

sujatha71 said...

Hai Amit this is sujatha here. I am following your blog last year onwards. I even put alert in my mobile. So that I can check the accuracy. Your predictions really correct.

AMIT said...

Sujatha
Thank you very much.I need more accuracy in time (+ or- 2 Hrs) as well as place. With support ,possibly I may be able to it.
The problem is my theory is against set norms of plate tectonics and scientists have already made up their mind that, earthquakes can not be predicted!!!!
These predictions were already forwarded to USGS well in advance.
I wish we could save some human lives.
Unless we are open to any other theory than ,plate tectonics, I am afraid we may not be able to this.
regards

zi hafler said...

Dave keep on the good work. One day it may be useful. You can soften the word 'prediction' with 'possiblity'. At least you do some research than some people just wait and do nothing!

Nurul I. Darni said...

hello dave, very interesting blog u have i must say. we've been getting some pretty intriguing predictions of an earthquake set to hit tiny Singapore sometime around end-Jan. if it does happen, it will be news because Singapore doesn't have a quake history.
i know that you've mentioned possible quakes end of this month -but would you be able to predict which possible location/s they will occur?

AMIT said...

hi
Thanks Zi Hafler.I will keep on my work till I get reasonable accuracy,that can save some lives.

AMIT said...

hi Nurul
As of now I am not disclosing any places ,because the accuracy is less than 50%.The reason being
1) The line of resultant pull is lost if accuracy of time is not +or- 5 minutes.
2) Earth moves both in orbit and along axis ,and the place accuracy is lost
I hope one day I may find some way to predict it.
Moreover,disclosing a wrong place is an offence under Indian National Disaster Act

AMIT said...

hi Nurul
As of now I am not disclosing any places ,because the accuracy is less than 50%.The reason being
1) The line of resultant pull is lost if accuracy of time is not +or- 5 minutes.
2) Earth moves both in orbit and along axis ,and the place accuracy is lost
I hope one day I may find some way to predict it.
Moreover,disclosing a wrong place is an offence under Indian National Disaster Act

Zolboo said...

Hi Dave,

I'm writing from Mongolia. In mid Jan we had a minor Earthquake, n there are rumors that there's another huge earthquake's gonna happen soon. Do u have any predictions for that? I have no idea how these things work, but this issue is making me wanna do something. Have any idea?

AMIT said...

Hi Zolboo
The idea of the blog is to create awareness towards research in the field by methods not normally accepted by the geologist and scientist,and not to make people feel unsafe. Do not worry
love and regards
Amit Dave

Gekkegedda said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gekkegedda said...

Please check

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1914JRASC...8..273K

Also please note I have also found some correlation between moonphases and quakes. Large ones DO happen more often near full moon and new moon. Data for USGC. I wrote then about my findings, they said it had been researched earlier and the found no match. The are dumb or unwilling to believe!

AMIT said...

hi
gekkegedda
Yes.It is true that major earthquakes have been triggered by tidal forces.If we consider only Sun and Moon (ie full Moon,New moon).However, some more points need to be considered like
Major planets changeing the direction from direct to retrogate or vice versa.Moon closest to earth or Earth closeset Sun.
Geologist in general and USGS in perticular is not ready to accept any theory other than plate tectonics, which can not predict the quakes.Time and again ,the dates predicted have come true.
Unfortunately,right now I can not pin point the place correctly.Hence, USGS says this can nnot be treated as predictions
We need to thik out of the box and various options need to be considered before rejecting any theory which says something different than establishes norms
regards
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

hi
pl note predicted date for quake 30.01.2010
we have china quake at Sichuaan
where nearly 100 hoses are damaged.
Also there was a volcanic eruption on carrabian island.
Both earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur due to tidal /gravitational forces on molten lava below the earth crust.
If the crust is broken completely the lava will come out resulting an eruption, otherwise an earthquake will occur.
If on a predicted date volcanic eruption occurs ,the quake will be less potent and will have less magnitude
Amit Dave

Gekkegedda said...

I also read about someone who researched the correlation between solar flares and quakes. Major quakes always seem to follow on a solar flare. The other way around is not true, so not every flare is followed by a large quake. Flares can not be predicted (?) long in advance.

Gekkegedda said...

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

No large quakes on jan 30?

AMIT said...

hi
here is one of the interesting link where in there was a good debate on my earthquake prediction method,after one of the local news paper (in Mumbai-India) reported my prediction methods
http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/06/mumbai-engineer-claims-new-earthquake.html
regards
Amit Dave

kathy said...

wow now is march 11 and as you predicted there was major aftershock in chile, i'll be checking more often..thank you for sharing.

AMIT said...

Kathi
Thank you very much. please keep watching.It is proved that the existing plate tectonic theory can not explain some of the question, forget predicting the quakes. Now,we
must think out of the box and look beyond set norms.
regards
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

There are several quakes on 14 as well as 15 th of March 2010.
on 15.03.201 we have category 4 cyclone at Fiji (Tomas)
Amit Dave

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note Andoman quake of 6.4 on 30th March 2010 (16.54 GMT) as predicted earlier
Time and again the dates predicted have come true.
predted time is up to 12.00 Noon 30th March( IST) and magnitude 7.0.where as actual quake is 10.30 Hrs late and of lesser magnitude (by 0.6)
Where it is stated that,prediction of quake(major 6.0+) is not possible,I do not know whehter this can be treated as a hit
I thing Roger would be able to comment
regards
Amit Dave

sujatha71 said...

Hi Amit
Eventhough in Iceland valcano is erupting in some places earth quake also happened why this? In 1960 major quake in Chili now after 50 years it just hit chile Is there is any possibilities that once in a 50 yrs earthquake hits in the same place. explain. And everyboby is talking about 2012 december 21 is dooms day is that true?

AMIT said...

Sujatha
1) There is no proof that an earthquake occurs at specified time interval.It is not true
2)There is no dooms day.It is all rumors.pl do not believe in such statements
One which has no scientific basis or any logic should not be believed
regards
Amit

Zyxzz said...

Hi, Amit!
If gravitational forces have influence, what should we expect when earth, Sun and center of Galaxy get in line on 2012?

Thanks, keep up the good work!
God Bless!

AMIT said...

Zyxzz
I have no idea of center of Galaxy and sun ,earth coming in line in 2012.
However ,my logic says let center of Galaxy be any where and sun at any other point,this situation will occur every year. This is because Earth makes 360 degrees every year and will cover every point every year. presuming they are all in more or less same plane.
so no dooms day
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
4/5th April 2010 quakes at Baja california and Macou sea have more or less confirmed the quakes on 11/12th April 2010 ie 7.5 days after as Mercuey is changing direction

Zyxzz said...

Hi AMIT
I like your theory and logic, now if we want to think outside the box and theres other theories out there we can get bits of info here and there, hoping to save some lives.
Im not afraid of dooms days, since every day is in fact doom day for some that didnt get to live the next day.
Since everythig is theory,
theres one, that the solar system is not in the same plane as the rest of galaxy, only every 26,000 years or so, guess what year and day and hour, dic/21/2012 close to noon.
Add to that, solar storms on those days acording to NASA, this a fact solar storms peak every 11 years.
add to that magnetic field protecting earth from solar storms, weak, real weak on big area forming a hole..
Is there a software program (I would like to have and test)or a way to know if that hole will be facing the sun that day at that time?
It may not matter much.....but then it may also have some influence on your earthquakes theory.
Please forgivme if Im posting in wrong place.

Thanks for all your hard work.

AMIT said...

zyxzz
thanks.
1)solar flares are maximum every 11 years. No one is ready to believe one theory that some time back I proposed
Jupitor is a major planet and have huge mass. It makes one round in orbit every 11 years (roughly)
During every round when it comes at specified location with respect to sun, major flares erupts due to gravity of Jupitor on Sun
recent quakes of Maxico and Sumatra have made it clear that
on 12th April 1230 UTC and on 14 th April 2010,still there will be
major quakes
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note to days quake ,7.1 at solomon
(0940UTC) vis a vis predicted one
amit

AMIT said...

hi
If iceland volcano does not subside early, I am affried,on 21st and 22nd April 2010 it will sprew more ash and lava

AMIT said...

hi
There is one typographical error at Sr no 25
Date is 27th August 2010

Zyxzz said...

Hi,all.
Im ready to believe AMIT theory on Jupiter influence on Solat activity.
Seems big Solar flares are taking place this days.

http://www.examiner.com/x-26854-Denver-Science-News-Examiner~y2010m4d22-NASA-releases-first-images-of-Sun-captured-by-Solar-Dynamics-Observatory

After the big quake in Mexicali, there have been thousand of small movements along few faults on the area, there (Mexicali), and southern California, if theory correct, the volcanic activity in Iceland, well may be helping to release the presure along the San Andreas on small rather than sudden big quake;

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/27.37.-120.-110.php

Saludos!
Thanks again for your hard work and time to keep us posted.
Greetings!

AMIT said...

zyxzz
Thank you very much
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
please note Taiwan quake(6.5),Indonesia quake (6.1)and Mississippi cycloneas (150mph)against my predicted date of 25th April 2010
pl keep counting the hits
regards
Amit Dave

Zyxzz said...

Hi Amit,
I been learning alot this few days, reading your blog.
I went visit the link you Tell us;

http://suvratk.blogspot.com/2008/06/mumbai-engineer-claims-new-earthquake.html

And the guy there, spend most time criticizing with no logic at all.
He didnt took into consideration, that the sea tides not only are movements of superficial 4.5 meter of water, but the entire half waters of the oceans, with all and their weigth in tons pulling at same time.
Either his wrong or was paid to pretend ignorence, or simply is blind by established way of thinking by the book.

He also said;
"the San Andreas fault zone, one of the most earthquake prone region in the world. And guess what? No magma there either. But as predicted by plate tectonic theory, evidence of rocks crushed and sliding past each other due to the relative movements of the Pacific and North American plates."

But failed to comment what forces are causing the plates to move, and thats when your theory comes to play.

I think they are right to a certain point, and you are also rigth from that point on.
When they are ready to work together with you, this theory have alot chances to become science.

Tornadoes form when hot air collapse with cold ones, when Iceland Volcano throw ashes into big area of the atmosfera, theres less heat from Sun pass thru that particular area, and air under, get cooler than normal, the air then moves along with low atmosferic pressures, till they hit or collapse with a mass of hot air from the gulf of Mexico there at Mississippi,is that what happen in the midwest of USA, causing those as a consequence very stronger than normal tornadoes?

Now that Iceland volcano slow down I will be watching for the next prediction date (I live by the San Andreas)
Thanks for reading, please ponit out if Im wrong in my logic.

regards!

zyxzz.

AMIT said...

zyxzz
Thanks
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Looking at the trend of cycle quakes ,I would like to add one more date in he list of prediction (well in advance i.e to day on 4th May 2010)
10Th May 2010 --- 6.5 to 6.9
pl observe
Amit

Zyxzz said...

Thanks Amit Dave!
Everything was somehow calm, now Iceland volcano active again and temblors back to the hundreads, here:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/Maps/US10/27.37.-120.-110.php

Your work very appreciated here.

Zyxzz.

AMIT said...

hi
please see my prediction of 10th May 2010 as against actual quake of Sumatra(7.4)
now ,this also implies that, on 14th May 2010 at 0200 UTc,there could be a quake of at least 6.0
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
As Saturn is changing the direction from from re trograde to direct on 30th May 2010, major combinations may trigger major quake
please watch

16th May 2010 ,18.30 IST. 6.4

23rd May 2010 , 04.45 IST, 7.2

WATCH 23rd May 2010
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
please note cyalone -Laila- ON 20th May on eastern coast of India and Peru quake of 6.0 (19Th May 0415 UTC)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
please see predicted date 20/21 st May 2010 and 6.2 quake at Costaricka
WATCH 23rd MAY 2010 0445 am IST for major quake and /or natural disaster
Amit

A said...

Initially I googled all the dates mentioned and found earthquakes someplace or the other on those dates. I was amazed.

However, then I decided to try ramdom dates like 5-Aug, 9-Aug, etc that were not mentioned in the list, and found earthquakes on those dates as well. Does this mean there are earthquakes someplace or the other every day??

AMIT said...

A
Yes;there qre always quakes less thqn 5, on daily basis
Amit

AMIT said...

A
there qre quqkes less thqn 5 on daily basis
AMIT

AMIT said...

hi
It is observes that, Moon at closer position have more effect than any other single factor. Some of the dates like 27.08.2010 and 01.09.2010 have not registered major quakes and hence could be treated as miss.
Nevertheless hence forth, this factor will also be taken in account while predicting monthaly forcasts
regards
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
We have, Jupiter and Venus both changing direction on 18th and 19th November 2010,respectively. As per my theory , such change in direction ,causes change in momentum (mass*velocity ) of magma inside the earth crust.
such acceleration and retardation when combines with Moon phases,may cause major earthquakes (6.5+)
Now as we approach full Moon (21st November and as Moon approaches perigee (30th November), major quakes /eruption may be noticed
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please see my predicted date as 29/30th November 2010 (6.7) as against to days (29th) quake at Japan region (6.7)
please watch my web site also
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com

AMIT said...

hi
please nte November 2010 quakes (6+) of 3rd,10th ,16th ,23rd and 30th November as against prediction at sr no 36 to 40 in my blog
All quakes were 6+ (except 16/17th quake of 5.9)
watch the accuracy of prediction
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
please note Earthquakes
5.9 on 5th Decmber 2010 at 2144 UTC at Easter island
and
5.8 on 7th Dcember 2010 at 04.27 UTC at south sandwitch island
Also please note Volcanic eruption at Equador between 4th and 5th December 2010
AMit

AMIT said...

hi
Yet another proff of cycle qauke theory.Two quakes one of 6.5 and another of 6.1 on 8th December 2010.
One at Sandwhich Island and another at Philipines
Cycle quake theory staes that, after one major quake ,chances of another quakes (at any place ) is more on 8th Day
We have quakes n 30th November 2010. Now we have quakes on 8th December 2010
Regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Please see my web page for more clear details of theory ,predictions and above all FAQs

http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com


regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please note three major earthquakes on the date of prediction
Iran 6.5
Japan region 7.4
Indonesia 6.2
These earthquake was predicted well in advance. In fact there are three major quuakes on 21st December 2010 (predicted date)
pl see my web page and blog for theory ,FAAQs, dates
http://earthquake-prediction.blogspot.com/
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com


regards
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Now you can view my monthly earthquake predictions for 7+ quakes ,dirctly from the link mentioned at the righside of this blog. There are three dates mentioned in the calender.The middle one is the predicted date and + or - one day staes the window period of quake
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
please see my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/ for theory ,dates (calender) and links (earthquake forum)
Amit

Anonymous said...

hi, new to the site, thanks.