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Sunday, October 02, 2016

Earthquake Prediction for the month of October 2016

hi
Here are probable dates for 6+ quake for the month of October 2016.
 One change made for this month is Two dates are given up to 17th October 2016.
If required one date may be added on 18th Oct ( of course before opening of window period)
 This is because , after 17th ,I do not find any potent date as of now.However, looking at the results up to 17th , may add one date (may be 22nd)

1) 8th Oct ...............6.4

2) 16th Oct.............6.6

window period is + or - one day

Amit

53 comments:

Anonymous said...

Amit,
Based on information I have gathered its looking like nEw Zealand could be highly like on the 8th 15-16th or 22nd. Does your data support this theory?
Cheers, Tom

AMIT said...

Roger
Pl see what the seismologist predict.
Chances of 7+ quake is as high as 1% !!!!
Is this a prediction or forecast ?
Amit


http://m.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/1003/Why-seismologists-warned-of-a-big-earthquake-in-California-this-week-video

AMIT said...

Roger
You expect my prediction up to 99%,as here 1% probability is too high.
Any comment Roger?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
You expect my prediction up to 99%,as here 1% probability is too high.
Any comment Roger?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Pl see what the seismologist predict.
Chances of 7+ quake is as high as 1% !!!!
Is this a prediction or forecast ?
Amit


http://m.csmonitor.com/Science/2016/1003/Why-seismologists-warned-of-a-big-earthquake-in-California-this-week-video

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Stating the probability of a quake in a certain location is a forecast.

Stating a quake of a given mag will happen in a certain time window is a prediction.

What I expect from you is that your results are 99% better than chance would allow.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Whatever name you give ,either prediction or forecast, it creates panic among people.
It give all three aspects ie 7+ quake,location and duration of one week.
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Whatever name you give ,either prediction or forecast, it creates panic among people.
It give all three aspects ie 7+ quake,location and duration of one week.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

It's still just a probability statement and no one should panic over a 1% chance.

Roger

Boris said...

earthquake prediction for October 2016 - 11 in 1 hours, 13 in 1 h., 16 in 16h. -M6.7.

AMIT said...

Boris
I could not understand what the prediction is all about.
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

5.1mg hit east cape of new Zealand is that a hit 8th of October 2016

Jessica Clark said...

Sorry it was 5.8mg on 9th of October 2016 with was today struck nz time at 8:41am

AMIT said...

Jessica
Yes please.
However,I have expected 6+ quake.
Amit

AMIT said...

Jessica
Yes please.
However,I have expected 6+ quake.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your score so far this month:

0/2 windows correct

no quakes.

Roger

A Thompson said...

yeah not good forecasing this month Amit

AMIT said...

A Thompson
Yes.Technically you can say this.
But if you look at it logically,you will find few things
1)Only the predicted dates have highest magnitude quake ie of 5.7 and 5.8.
2)It proves that those are the only potential dates.
3)It was mentioned earlier this month that,this month is less potential.Hence predicted only 2 dates.
If you put all this logic together,you can interpret the facts
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Pl see the new research ,which defy the
set norms of plate tectonics.
Think out of the box and find other reasons for quakes

http://www.sciencealert.com/californian-earthquakes-can-strike-a-lot-deeper-than-scientists-ever-expected
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Twelve days of the month already passed, but no 6+ quake.
I wonder, how our seismologist say ,there is 6+ quake every third day.
Yes, I am aware that, these are the average figures.
What ,we do not understand or not ready to acknowledge is...
1)There are some potent dates
2) Near (+ or - one day) cluster of 6+ quakes occurs all over the globe, irrespective of plate boundaries.
3)Rest of the dates do not get 6+ quakes
4) When we average them out , it shows one 6+quake every third day
5)Actually that is not the real case
Look beyond average figures
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Twelve days of the month already passed, but no 6+ quake.
I wonder, how our seismologist say ,there is 6+ quake every third day.
Yes, I am aware that, these are the average figures.
What ,we do not understand or not ready to acknowledge is...
1)There are some potent dates
2) Near (+ or - one day) cluster of 6+ quakes occurs all over the globe, irrespective of plate boundaries.
3)Rest of the dates do not get 6+ quakes
4) When we average them out , it shows one 6+quake every third day
5)Actually that is not the real case
Look beyond average figures
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Twelve days of the month already passed, but no 6+ quake.
I wonder, how our seismologist say ,there is 6+ quake every third day.
Yes, I am aware that, these are the average figures.
What ,we do not understand or not ready to acknowledge is...
1)There are some potent dates
2) Near (+ or - one day) cluster of 6+ quakes occurs all over the globe, irrespective of plate boundaries.
3)Rest of the dates do not get 6+ quakes
4) When we average them out , it shows one 6+quake every third day
5)Actually that is not the real case
Look beyond average figures
Amit

Jessica Clark said...

When's next quake predicted in nz and wear please

Jessica Clark said...

Can you predict world ending aswell

AMIT said...

Jessica
No
A big no.
It will never happen, at least till you and me are alive.
Relax and enjoy the bliss called life.
Be thankful to God and greatful for each moment
Amit

AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

1) How can you be sure of that?

2) Why are we seeing triple posts?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I am sorry for repeated posts. May be due to net connectivity problem and posted more than once.
Yes. Roger, I am sure and I stand by what I have said
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
First 6 quake at PNG today ie on 15th Oct 2016.
Pl note this is a hit prediction.
I expect at least one more 6+ quake in the window , may be 6.5+ quake
Amit

AMIT said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AMIT said...

Oh!
PNG quake is upgraded to 6.4.
Watch out the accuracy ,even magnitude wise also.
Yet one more (atleast ) to come
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, this is a date hit so at this point you are

1/2 predictions correct, 1/1 quakes correct.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
No.It is not a date hit prediction, but in window period.
Date hit may come tomorrow
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I didn't know you distinguished between date and window hits.

If so, they have different probabilities, the date hit being less probable and therefore worth more.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

On second thought, if you want to make that distinction a date hit will also be a window miss, counting against you.

You should reconsider that distinction. A window prediction has equal probability for each day since you are not predicting which day will have a quake. You can't claim more credit for one of them.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
A date hit can never be window miss.This is because window comprises of date predicted and +or - one day.
My date selection is little tricky.
It try to incule as many triggers in three day window.
For example
1)15th date Moon opposes Juptiter
2)16th date Moon opposes Sun
3)17th date Moon at Perigee.
For taking in account all three major triggers,I have selected 16th as the date.
Now, we have first quake for first trigger.We may have two more for remaining two triggers and that too stronger in magnitude,as these two triggers are more potent.
For more specifics ,you may check exact time of Moon opposing Sun and coming Closest. Quakes could be nearer to these time.
Further ,extension of this theory is at the time of Moon opposing Sun and coming Closest, check Moon position. The location where Moon is at overhead or 180 degree s apart are the probable location of quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

We've examined all this already and found nothing better than chance.

Roger

Jessica Clark said...

Still no earthquake thank god

AMIT said...

Jessica
Two major quakes today, only few hours apart and not connected by any plate boundary.
6.9 at PNG
6.4 at China
Any doubt about theory.
No 6+ quake for first 16 days of month and now couple of 6.5+ quakes few hours apart.
Roger ,also need to note and comment
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Watch earlier post.Atleast two 6.5+ quakes predicted in window period.
Here are two 6.5 quakes.
Are these confirm statements/predictions, just a fluke, out of the hat predictions or below average occurances
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, 2 qualifying quakes in your prediction window.

Yes, it's just chance.

Roger

Jessica Clark said...

What about nz

AMIT said...

Hi
One more quake ,6.6 at Japan today ie 21st.Yes, I could not confirm again the earlier said date ie 22nd. But you can make put correctness of prediction
Amit

Anonymous said...

The difference between a strong moon tide and week moon tide is massive. Adding Jupiter to your macro is like tipping a cup of tea in the sea. Any credibility lost

AMIT said...

Anonynous
Yes, Moon has greatest effect on the tide. However ,all full Moon and New Moon do not produce quakes.However,Moon at Perigee, Jupiter closest, Venus Closer and major planets changing direcions , will act as a trigger.
Amit

Anonymous said...

Saying this though, this 28th day, 1 moon haveth passed since Wellington shook

Anonymous said...

Italy27th oct!!

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Good start, bad finish.

You made 2 predictions this month.

The first one got nothing, the second captured all 3 quakes, the only ones that month.

But there were 4 more quakes and no windows so (barring any quakes today) your score is:

1/2 predictions correct, 3/7 quakes captured.

Again, coin toss odds.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger and all esteemed friends
Happy Dipawali and Prosperous new year.
Roger, we have a week long festivals of Dipawali (Last day of Hiundu calender year)and ,today is the first day of next calender year. I was out of station and busy ,could not access net.
Now, look at the theory yourself. You are now well conversent with my theory triggers and some ground rules.
Yesterday was a new moon day
Sun is coming closer
22nd was the problem date (last), 7th or 8th day is more probable.Hence ,30th or 31st is more probable to quake
Amit

AMIT said...

.....(correction)
22nd was the probable date.

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Sorry, doesn't count.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It is OK.
I do not want you to count.However, I have to see as to whether it is congruent to my theory or not.
It is not important for me that, seismologist or people at large count it a hit, it is for me to explain (as a third person),that it is as per theory norms.
Amit