Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Earthquake prediction for January 2013

hi
 Here are some of the probable dates of Earthquake in January 2013

1)3/4 th January 2013-------------6.4

2)10th----------------------------7.0

3)15th---------------------------6.3

4)23 rd-------------------------6.5

5)27th--------------------------6.4

 place not known. window period + or - 1 day, magnitude - or - 0.3

Amit

32 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Why do you keep making predictions when I've shown that it doesn't work?

Roger

Anonymous said...

Roger

Why do then waste your time looking/commenting on "useless posts" then ?

happy new year !

Jazzman ;0

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit, shall not mention dates this month, rather days of interest,

see how it goes.

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

Roger
1) with due respect, this is purely a personal choice
2) Roger, have you ever calculated success rate of weather bureau?
Take for example the rain forecast,in terms of + or - mm of rain, + or - day accuracy and above all location accuracy. Take for example last 5 years forecast for LA or NY. and find out.
How much tax payers money is used for research.
3) The ultimate aim of plate tectonics is ( as I know) not to predict quakes any time in near future. why do we then spend a fortune on projects?
It would have been suffice to work on retrofitting and strengthening instead?

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
I have some basic reservations , as far as evaluation process goes.
1) Basically, it is designed taking in to account predictions made based on fault lines and plate tectonics.
My theory basically says, some dates are prone to major quakes.The places depends on the weaker crust ,coming directly under pull,as the Earth moves and rotates.Hence, all the quakes on that day (or window) should be treated as Hit.
Moreover, if the quake predicted is say 6.5 ,the quakes above 6.5 should also be treated as hit.
Both these aspects are very much important ,if we are working for saving human lives ( your stats may say something else)

Above all, why do we need,the predictions either 100% or none at all? Can not we start in between.

All I say is,
There were quakes first and then plates and motion of plates not vice verse.
How did the first separation of plates occurred ?
Are the convection current of magma has enough force to split apart the crust? Have any mathematical model have ever calculated the force to split open the crust and move? We have area and thickens of crust and average density is also available. The force can be calculated assuming coefficient of friction.
Do heat current have this much force?
It is true ,the major quakes occur at plate boundaries,but it is because ,the boundary is weak section ,which gives way first
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
I would rather add here that,the dates predicted are prone with potential pull and retardation, acceleration energy. It necessarily means, the pull when higher,and it comes directly under volcano,it can induce volcanic eruptions also.
time and again, it has been observed that,the dates predicted by me also gives major eruption. As the locations are not possible to be predicted ( as of now,but,yes, in principle) I can not differentiate between probable quake or eruption. Both are due to higher inner tidal pull and acceleration/retardation forces.
Thus, in principle my probable dates ,volcanic (major) eruption should also be considered.
This is the difference,in unfair evaluation precess. My theory does not differentiate between major quake and major eruptions ( both can occur on potential date)
But the plate tectonic based evaluation will not allow this.
They treat both are different and occur with separate causes

If we are keen on saving some lives and utilizing tax payers money properly, we need to think out of the box
Amit

Anonymous said...

I would lean toward the first or second Sunday in Feb either 2013 or 2014. Just saying. Definately before the astrological sign of pisces. Oh and I would focus on west coast probably San Francisco area or gulf of Mexico region. And I would probably say 9+ magnitude. Just saying.............

AMIT said...

hi
7.7 quake at Alaska on 5th Jan 2013 as against 3/4th Ja.Yes mag predicted was 6.4.As I have already stated earlier any quake greater than predicted should be treated as a hit if at all we want to save human lives and not ony playing with stats.
Have any seismolist given such date accuracy?
comment if you agree
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hey amit, cause was a jump in xray flux , ie m class solar flare, the build up started from the 4th as u mentioned.

I shall give you all data sources I have, and my. Findings, how to use them etc, I haven't got the time any more for such intense monitoring.

But just for a quick bit of info, here's the xflux monitor among others.

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html

Shall give the rest when I can,

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I judge your predictions according to what they say. In this case you said +/- 1 day from given date, +/- 0.3 mag.

If you want credit for anything larger than predicted, say so in the prediction but remember, the odds are greater that way so score is less.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hi again Amit

As seen by the above monitor, xflux continues to climb, a good site for solar flares is
http://spaceweather.com/

But again this site doesn't mention that solar flares are actually sometimes reversing polarity, this alters the effects again.

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/196

Shall post some advanced sources when on the pc.

As iv always said, magnetics plays a big part on my opinion and the sun is 99% of our solar systems mass, , and over the last 9 months, come across many interesting sites.

Coronal holes are another big factor, here's a pretty well upto date site, don't forget to have page on auto update.

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0193.jpg

The centre of the sun isroughly facing earth, this varies as the year goes on.

Learn positions of solar flares /Coronal holes and earth quakes etc.

CNE 's are another factor, will be in the next batch of info :-).

Again, will post info of site soon :-).


Be safe

Jazzman :-)

AMIT said...

Roger
If we take mag window as - 0.3 and + not limited ( keeping time winow same) how does it stand?
Roger

Anonymous said...

Hi again Amit, here's another link for CME's/ Coronal holes

http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html

It's a good site for showing exact size of Coronal holes / sunspot, shame it doesn't update more than once a day.

Also compare earthquakes with sunspot count at the top of page.

More coming soon :-)

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Hey Amit, xflux at present on the rise, spotting on the earthquake frequency. (2. 4) Hz magnetometre, a Coronal hole ( larger part) above centre, , let's see if its powerful. Enough to give something big?

http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/scmag/disp-scmag.cgi?Bx=on&By=on&Bz=on&date=20130107

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit

X-Ray Flux continues to boarder C class, this is above the norm, we have had a M5.4 and recently an M5.7.

The Coronal hole in the southern region of the sun is closer to earths position.

The following site is interesting, it shows the detail of when i mention connections among other things.

It also shows earths conection to the sun also in a diffrent light.

People can do their own calculations to how to work it.

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/


(1 CME Arrival gives the CME'S on route, time they will reach etc...

(10 earth sun connectivity)- gives suns sunspot connection.

*since 1230 we have an active region proximity alert.

(10 earth magnetic connection gives the 10 connections.)
,people will need to get used to the system and what does what.

Be safe

Jazzman :)



Anonymous said...

Ps , the earth connects at 60 degrees, north and south of the sun on the earth-sun magnetic field connectivity applet, shame its not updated regular enough .

As ya already know -
Haarp-

http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/cgi-bin/scmag/disp-scmag.cgi?date=latest&Bx=on&By=on&Bz=on

2.4Hz earthquake frequency

Another Magnetometer-

http://www.lund.irf.se/helioshome/magnetometerdata.html

Again, you will soon learn the way it works in regards to activity.

Be safe

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

hi
Recent research says earthquake can be predicted by monitering static electricity below ground. The static charge increases before two weeks then drops until it increases just before quake
This explains moon tidal effect at both side of the earth180 degree apart and 15 days apart(as moon takes 15 days to move 180 degree
Amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit , this would also fit in with my theory that the faults are actually pulled upwards when we have Solar Flares/CME's, Coronal holes etc... as the quakes at the moment with the rise in X-Ray Flux being in a raised state.

we shall see what state of play the flux is when the next large one happens.

Its a bit obvious really, the earth is a massive electromagnet,

Its like when lightning strikes, the 1st 6ft of lightning actually comes up from the ground, then meets the the remaining coming down from the Sky.

be safe

Jazzman :)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If I give you credit for quakes larger than you predicted you get 52 hits out of 180 predictions but your score is 0.93 standard deviations below chance.

Roger

Anonymous said...

Hello, to be honest, that's why I started to mention "heavy activity", a M 7. 4 is 30 times larger than a M6. 4 , you would need 30 6. 4s to match the one 7. 4 .

A M 7. 7 is 30x (M 6. 4)x 3(M 7. 4s)

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

Hi amit, beta gamma sunspot Ar 1652 is turning towards earth, it holds the potential for M class flares .

Ar 1654 has also come into view, twin spots, they measure 4 times the earth, defo one to watch carefully.

No new coronary holes at present.

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

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Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, should start seeing things escalate again shortly (21:09) , we see the darker parts centered on the sun just before AR 1654 makes its centralization.


be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, AR 1654 now has its leading edge centred, while it is, thought is give you this site, it runs from- 0-180 each way,
-60- 0-60+ is earth side,
-120-60 is left side of the sun, Activity coming.
+60-+120 is right side of sun, Activity leaving.

http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/euvi_195_heliographic.gif

Dark patches are coronal holes, light spots are sunspots, with some CME's thrown in.

Be safe

Jazzman :-)

Anonymous said...

can you plz tell me abt wen is earthquake going to strike in kathmandu?(grossly)

AMIT said...

hi
place can not be pin pointed as of now
Amit

Anonymous said...

is there a chance of earthquake of more than 7 this year here ?then some security tips for places like kathmandu?

AMIT said...

Hi
6,1 quake ar mid atlantic ridge on 15th as predicted.watch the date and manitude accuracy
amit

Anonymous said...

Hi Amit, we are just reaching the tip of the large coronal hole, wouldn't be surprised to see a M. 7 over the next few days.
Be safe

Jazzman :-)

AMIT said...

hi
6.0 quake at indonesia on 22th jan(local ttime) at least on killed.pl note prediction date 23rd and magnitude
I still expect one more 5+ quake within 24 HRS 9place not known)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note a 6 mag quake at eastern kazakistan on 28th January 2013 as against predictd 6.4 on 27th.( with + or - one day window
Amit

asaph awit songs asap said...

Prophecy from Church of Jesus Christ The Lord & Savior!

Magnitude 12 that will Hit the Water!

Pray for this!

God Bless!