Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Monday, October 30, 2017

Earthquake Prediction for November 2017

hi
 Here are probable dates for 6+ quakes. for November 2017
window period + or - one day

1)  4th November..............6.8

2) 8th November ...........6.6

3) 18th November ..........6.4

one of the probable date is 22nd  November (6.2). However ,it will be confirmed only after 12th ( but before window period starts

Amit  

54 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Off to a bad start, you've missed 3 quakes already.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Here is the quake.
A date hit
Magnitude hit
6.8 Earthquake at Tonga,today ,ie 4th November 2017
Roger, let your stats say anything ,results shows.
Now what are the odds of 6.8 quake to come as date hit as well as magnitude hit
Let viewers decide
Amit

Anonymous said...

What do u say about earthquake in Indian Ocean ?? Is it expected in this November 2017??

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes that's a good hit so now you're 1/4 quakes.

The odds on a mag. hit are very small. How often can you do it?

How much confidence would you have in someone who hits a prediction with very small odds but only does it once in a thousand times?

Would you evacuate a town for such a prediction?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes that's a good hit so now you're 1/4 quakes.

The odds on a mag. hit are very small. How often can you do it?

How much confidence would you have in someone who hits a prediction with very small odds but only does it once in a thousand times?

Would you evacuate a town for such a prediction?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You can check my last ten years record. You will find several 6.5 + date Hits.
I also mention ,my personal note regarding location. Accuracy is about 50%
If Government allow me to publish all three aspects ie date, magnitude and Location,I am ready to publish those locations
If the odds are less than 10% ,ie one in ten , if out of ten predictions two or more date Hits of 6.5+ ,will be more than odds
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Would you be violating the law to send those predictions to me?

Of course, after the fact would prove nothing since you could be making false claims.

I see no way to decide this.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Good month so far.

You have 2/4 quakes and 2/4 predictions.

Just chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Correction;

2/4 quakes, 2/3 predictions.

Still just chance

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Here is one more 6.5 hit prediction.
Now, what are the odds of getting two consecutive 6.5 earthquake prediction hits?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
1)first thing is prediction is 2/2.The third date has not yet come. If the the third date fails than and only than it can be said as 2/3
2)What are the chances of getting two 6.5 consecutive hit prediction
You said it is just by chance.
Can any one give two 6.5 +, consecutive hit prediction?
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
One more hit prediction
6 quake at Japan to day ie 9 the.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That's correct, a date hit.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake on the 11th, a miss

Your score now 3/7 quakes, 2/3 predictions correct.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
A 7.3 quake at Iraq boarder on 12th.
Yes.a real miss.
Need to cross check
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Looking gback to my calculations, I am forced to give this statement ( which ,I am still not convinced),that..
Today's Iraq quake of 7.3 has something to do with Naptune Moon conjuction.
On 21st Nov ,Neptune changes the direction from retrogate to direct , and as per change in momentum theory ,the conjunction or opposition (some times square ) position of Moon and Neptune may trigger major quakes.
I would like to wait until 27th of this month ,when Moon will join Neptune and Neptune have changed the direction (on 21st)
Considering the distance between Neptune and Earth I , usually ,do not give much waitage to this combination.
However,fingers are crossed till 27th November
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
A correction
Yesterday ie 12th November,exactly at the time of quake,Moon was opposing Neptune ,which is about to change its direction on 22nd November
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here are two more points for viewers to ponder over ( and suggest ,suitable cause/ reason)
1) One more potent combination is Jupiter Venus conjunction.(though none of them is nearer position to Earth

2) The main point is.....Both quakes ie Iraq (7.3) and Costa Rica ( 6.5) are exactly corresponds to Mars position on the sky.You can check both the quakes are right below Mars position.

AMit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

How are you determining that?

For one thing, it could only be true near the equator.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
At the time of quakes,if you stand at the quake locations(both),Mars is right overhead.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

My question is "How do you know?".

Are you claiming that the RA and dec matches the lat/lon of the quake? and if so, how do you determine that?

Roger

AMIT said...

RA
Right Ascension (longitude)

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

RA does not equal longitude.

RA is the angular distance from the vernal equinox to the body in question (Mars)

Longitude is the angular distance from Greenwich to the location in question (quake)

The earth rotates while the celestial sphere does not so the RA and longitude only coincide at a particular time.

Are you taking that into account?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I generally use Horizontal Co-ordinate
system to locate planet position
ie Altitude and Azimuth
RA takes in to account hr,minute,second etc, which becomes combersome to convert in degrees everytime
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

That still doesn't make sense.

Azimuth is in degrees clockwise from north.

On the 12th Mars was at 299:44 while the quake was at 45.8E

On the 13th Mars was at 85:12 while the quake was at 84.5W

Roger

Santosh phadnis said...

Amit Sir
this is Santosh Phadnis sending urgent message, you are aware that I have one theory which predicts great quakes. Its 3 axis theory plus sun moon gravity , planets gravity etc
According to that the great 8 or 9 mag quake is possible on earth around 3rd dec to 6th dec 2017 it may generate tsunami if quake occurs in sea , location can not be exact Still many nations need to be alert, earthquake awareness tips are imp. for people

urgently send your number to santosh.phadnis1966@gmail.com I will call you for some likely things which I can not write on net

Santosh phadnis said...

Amit Sir
this is Santosh Phadnis sending urgent message, you are aware that I have one theory which predicts great quakes. Its 3 axis theory plus sun moon gravity , planets gravity etc
According to that the great 8 or 9 mag quake is possible on earth around 3rd dec to 6th dec 2017 it may generate tsunami if quake occurs in sea , location can not be exact Still many nations need to be alert, earthquake awareness tips are imp. for people

urgently send your number to santosh.phadnis1966@gmail.com I will call you for some likely things which I can not write on net

AMIT said...

Dear Santosh
Probable dates for major quakes in December will be posted in last week of November.
You can send e mail at

j.amit.d@gmail.com

amitjdave@yahoo.com

Amit Dave

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake today, a hit.

Your current score 4/10 quakes, 3/3 predictions, one more to go.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Thanks
Watch the accuracy.
Three 6+( even 6.5+) Hits out of thee predictions.
A 100% , accuracy.
Those prediction are just by chance?
I have totally convinced about the validity,of the theory
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Remember, there are 4 predictions unless you cancel the last one.

Remember too, it's the long term average that matters.

I'll do a 2017 summary next January.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
Here is one more hit.
6.4 at calendonia on 19th.
Watch magnitude accuracy also
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Correct.

You're now 5/11 quakes, 3/4 predictions correct.

Below chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
One more quake
6.6 at calendonia today is 19th.
How many hits on the prediction date
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Already posted to your blog; 5/11 quakes.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I'm losing count.

You're 6/12 now, still chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes.
One more 7.0 at calendonia on 19th

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

They just keep coming!

Score now 7/13 quakes, 3/4 predictions.

Still just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Now tell me when will it can be treated as above chance?
Cent percent?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

As I've told you before, it's the long term average that counts.

Any odds can be beaten by chance - occasionally. But a real true predictive method will beat it all the time.

You don't have that.

I'll do your year long average in January and we'll see how that looks.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Quake on 20th, a miss.

Score now 7/14 quakes, 3/4 predictions.

Is that last one on or off?

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Another quake today.

Your current score is 7/16 quakes, 3/3 windows

Good thing you didn't validate the 22nd; it was a miss.

Just chance

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Three out of three hit is a chance?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes. Just chance.

And there were 2 quakes just now, both misses.

Roger

Unknown said...

Have you calculated Mars' tidal influence on Earth? I think you'll find that weather systems are more of an influence

Roger Hunter said...

No but someone calculated the moon"s pull and found that a man standing under the full moon would lose a fraction of an ounce.

That being the case, the planets would have no gravitational influence at all.

Roger

AMIT said...

yes
Mars has ,in fact ,more influence on earth than Mercury, specially when it is closer.
In fact ,last months two major quakes's locations were influenced by Mars
Yes , I also take in to account MArs

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
There is some misunderstanding here
Gravitational pull and tidal pull are two different things
In fact tidal pull is the differential gravitational pull acting on a huge mass.
Have you ever thought ,why a small pond of water or say water in bucket does not experience high tide and low tide?
An ocean is a huge mass of water and the water nearer to Moon experiences more pull than the water away from Moon ie at 90 degree apart. These difference in pull at two different point of a single body creates high tide and low tide.
That what , my theory says ...
Molten magma inside the Earth crust is much more in volume than ocean water, and hence , the differential pull on two different points of magma will be much higher than ocean tides

This tides in side the Earth crust, when crosses the limit or when is directly acted upon the fault line ,it creates the quakes . If the tides inside is much more and it directly beneath volcano , it rupture the mouth of volcano and hence eruptions
Thus my dates are prone to both earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
A man ,standing near Moon does not make any sense ,because the differential pull is not there
I hope this clarify your point

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Disagree. Gravitational attraction is what causes the tide, in ponds as well as oceans. You just don't see it in small bodies of water.

The earth has no liquid magma until near the core. It has no effect on the crust.

Lava can only form when pressure is reduced near the surface by folding or fracturing.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Pl see
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_force
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Even Earth crust experience tidal effect twice a day.It is elongated by 12 inches twices a day
https://www.thoughtco.com/land-tides-or-earth-tides-1435299

AMIT said...

Roger
Have you wonder ,why than a high tide at the opposite side (180 degrees apart) off the Moon
It is resultant force of Moon, Earth own pull toward centre and inertia of water
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/kits/tides/tides03_gravity.html

AMIT said...

Roger
As you have raised the topic ,few more interesting points
As per the same logic ,a man sleeping on Earth experience more tidal pull than one standing ,because his legs are farther than head while he is sleeping ,and the differtial pull between head and legs is higher.
An elephant experience more tidal pull than a man
This exactly why a space rocket or any terrestrial object is teared apart when it goes nearer to palmer/star with more mass and gravity. The differtial pull on head of space ship is so high than that at tail ,that it years it apart
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

All you have to do is compare quakes to moon position to prove there is no correlation.

Your failed predictions tell the same story.

Roger