Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Thursday, April 02, 2015

Earthquake Prediction for the month of April 2015

hi
April 2015 will witness lunar eclipse on 4th . It will be one of the shortest eclipse . The will be red Moon. During eclipse ( especially when on sun rise and sun set,because Earth"s atmosphere filter blue light and looks reddish

Now the quake prediction
Though, eclipses are potent for quakes ( and cyclones) ,on 4th ,the Moon is far away ie 63 ER(  Earth Radius)

1) 4th April....................6.3

2)9th April...................6.4

3)13th April.................6.7

4)17th April.................6.6

5)26th April.................6.5

As Jupiter is changing the direction and is fairly closer (4.8 AU-Astronomical Units-ie 1 AU is average distance between Sun and Earth), more potent quakes and floods/cyclones are also expected

Amit

31 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

After getting only one hit last month and failing your own 6 months test before that, why do you keep following the same path?

Remember, insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over while expecting different results.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Oh really? I did not know the definition of insanity. Thanks.
By this slandered,all seismologist are insane. They keep on believing and working on plate tectonic theory despite it is not working.
The beauty of the seismologist, is they themselves believe ,plate tectonic can not predict or warn of any major impending quake ,still they keep on working.They predict a major quake on certain fault line any time between tomorrow to 500 to 6600 years. what a joke and waste of tax payers money
As far as my results are concerned, they are above average( see -Roger your results-)
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger


http://www.weather.com/science/news/two-california-fault-lines-linked-meaning-potentially-larger-earthquakes

See ,this is how your seismologist, study, research and predict the major quakes ( even 7+), in California, without giving any time line.
Have you ever seen my time window bigger than + or - one day ?
How can Government and authorities allow ,the seismologist to scare the people and spread Panic with such an open ended time window? This may run in 1000 years even?
Do we want people to be alert 24 by 7 all their lives?
What a mental torturer these news must be spreading?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No, your results are not better than chance and my comment was to indicate that you should pursue other methods rather than continue with a failed method.

As to seismologists, they give probability estimates for particular areas to show the degree of danger. This is useful for building codes. We cannot and do not make predictions.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've already checked eclipses against quakes.

There's no correlation. It's another blind alley.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Eclipse in itself can not give quake, unless other indicators are present. They only suggest that, the Sun ,Earth and Moon are in the same plane
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

If you think you have a valid method, let me test it before you waste 15 years on it.

I do it to keep active. TV will rot one's brain.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes. I also think TV ,fb and whatapps are addiction to the extent that need medical help.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

3/5 wrong so far this month and you missed a 6.2 earlier.

Time to give it up and look for a new method.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
You are always in a hurry to prove me wrong. wait...
today ay ie 17th at 15.52 UTC a quake of 6.5 at Wallis and Futuna.
watch ,the date and magnitude accuracy of 6.5 mag quake
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Actually, there is one more quake
6.1 on 16th at 18.07 UTC at Greece
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've already proved you wrong by your own random test.

Now you've missed 3 out of 5 predictions so even if both remaining predictions are correct you're still below chance for the month.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

In science, when an idea is proven wrong the correct procedure is to modify it or abandon it.

You don't persist in using it unchanged.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1)How do you know ,I am not fine tuning the method,unless I specifically say,you may not be awsre of the same.
2)By this norms,seismologist should scrap plate tectonic theory.They themselves know,the theory can not predict quakes.What is fun in giving a resesrch statement,after spending millions of Dollarstax payers money like this
"There could be a major quake at LA ,either tomorrow or after 500 years"
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You're right, I do not know unless you say so. But you didn't say so.

Plate tectonics is not supposed to predict quakes.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
If you see my earlier prediction (1998 to 2000 ie before we commmunicated first time,) the method was crude and mainly based on Moon. Where as now various other parameters are also considered.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes and it still doesn't work.

It's a dead end.

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
pl note 6.3 quake at NZ today. Though it is one day in advance,I expect one more (place not known) within next 72 hours
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One more quake of 6.2 at Canada to day ie 24th April
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

There have been 10 qualifying quakes so far this month and you have missed nearly all of them.

Give it up; your method does not work.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You were right in expecting more quakes. They were in India.

I hope you were not affected.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Nepal is more affected ,nearly 700 deaths and still counting.
Yes north eastern part of India is affected and there are causalities
Amit

surbhi baweja said...

Hi amit....

Thank you for your valuable piece of information... I wud Like to know if more earthquakes are expected in North India and their scale measures...

surbhi baweja said...

Hi amit...

Thank you for your valuable piece of information... I wud Like to know if more earthquakes are expected in North India and their scale measures...

AMIT said...

Surbhi
Thank you for your comments
1) pl note that, I do not predict places for two reasons
a) As per Indian Disaster Act 2005 predicting all three aspects ie date, magnitude and location amounts to spreading rumors and is an offence
b) Accuracy of places is not more than 60%. Though, I keep a diary and mention locations also, I do not publish them

2) pl do not believe in rumors ,that, a 13 magnitude quake will come soon.
3) I publish some prone dates and magnitudes (without locations) every month on this blog as well as my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
and see calender
Amit

surbhi baweja said...

Okkk amit... I totally understand Dat yes u can't publish them coz of laws of India.... And I wil keep on following ur blog here... Thanks... God bless you..

satya sahu said...

Hi amit i want accurate prediction

AMIT said...

Satya
I give date (with + or - one day window) and magnitude (with +or-0.3 window)
I do not give locations ,as mentioned by me earlier
Amit

Unknown said...

Dear Amit,

There was one earthquake on 4th April too. Mag-6.1. Link http://dutchsinse.com/4042015-usgs-misses-6-1m-earthquake-in-russia-or-are-they-deliberately-hiding-it/

regards

Anonymous said...

Dear Amit,

Apparently, there was an earthquake on 4th April with 6.1 Magnitude in Russia.

Try the link.

http://dutchsinse.com/4042015-usgs-misses-6-1m-earthquake-in-russia-or-are-they-deliberately-hiding-it/

regards

Anonymous said...

Dear Amit,

There was an earthquake on 4th April in Russia.

http://dutchsinse.com/4042015-usgs-misses-6-1m-earthquake-in-russia-or-are-they-deliberately-hiding-it/