Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, April 14, 2013

Earthquake prediction for April 2013

hi
 First of all ,an apology for not posting probable dates of current month till 14th April. Due o some urgent official work I could not calculate the details of probable dates.Even to day also. I could not spare time.
   To day,ie 14th April 2013 .there is a major quake of 6..6 at Papua New Guinea.
   I am aware ,that,justifying delay is not good, Never the less ,you can check ,as per my theory,the quake of 6.6 to day
  Moon at Maximum declination
  Moon Joining the Jupiter
 Jupiter is closer to Earth

  I wish,I could devote full time to my hobby and stop working as a full time Engineer.I am also aware that, this will not happen ,unless,Govt sponsor or at least support my research plan
 Amit

  

14 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
At least one more date I could calculate for the current month ie APRIL 2013.

27/28th April 2013.......6.6
Amit

Juski said...

If you ever find a way to predict the place of an imminent earthquake, than you will find a sponsor, 100%!

Earthquake Prediction has 3 elements:
Place
Time
Magnitude

You can predict 2 of them
Time
Magnitude (more or less)

USGS can predict 2 of them
Place
Magnitude (more or less)

All in all you are not better than USGS and a combination of both would be also useless, because you both are currently not able to combine time and place prediction.

So don't complain about the ignorance of the officials. Work on your own, work with friends, work with partners who are interested in the same. Work to improve! Otherwise you will never get a chance by USGS and co. Otherwise you will never be able to save people. And this should be your aim!

AMIT said...

Juski
Thank you very much
1) I liked your web page and hence, given a link to my blog and my web page
http://earthquakeprediction.webs.com/
2)There is one difference in prediction of USGS and mine
USGS predicts quakes ,that may or may not occur ,either tomorrow at after 500 years. Now ,how this prediction is useful to people at large?
Where as,if we have day with + or- one day window, and magnitude, we can remain alert or on watch at all prone places(ie plate boundaries)
one can remain alert to the highest degree for limited time but not for 500 years
Moreover,USGS is not keen on working with any theory ,other than plate tectonics
Thank you again
amit

Juski said...

Right Amit. There is a difference between the warning periods. But honest: Would you prefer to hear one warning saying "There WILL be a quake in the coming decades, so be prepared!" or "There could be a major quake next weekend?
And 5 days later again and again and again?
Scenario: USGS publishes your warning as you want. So, 500 million people will be alerted for a possible M 6-7 quake on this day.

First warning: People won't be interested. They don't believe it.
--> China was hit on predicted day, 200 people died.

Second warning: Now people now you are right. And 500 Mio. People will have sleepless night, because it could be their last.
--> Vanuatu was hit, nothing happened.

Third warning: 499 Mio People see "Aha, quake happened but it happened somewhere else. So, am I really in danger?".
--> Kermadec hit, nothing happened.

Fourh warning: People in Istanbul say "Again a warning, again somewhere else. Nothing to care about!"
--> Istanbul hit, 20.000 killed.

And so on.

You see, if you warn half a billion people, you will create panic, crimes, sucides maybe (very pessimistic here) and after a couple of weeks, nobody will care it anymore, because they were not affected by your first warnings. And then your warnings will have created more lose than use. And you will sit in prison.

I don't want you to stop this prediction, I'd never do it. Of course. I did the same for a long time as you know, but than I had to see, that this all has so sense (anymore). Earlier or later, you will hurt yourself, if you become too popular. As the seismologists in L'aquila.
If you are not sure to predict everything correct for every single region for every single day, you should not go to public. They (USGS and co) will laugh and ridicule you. And one day it will have an inpact on your job and your life. (See this guys in California, who tried quakeprediction with "unscientific" methods. They lost their Job, they lost their honors and they were bullied by the whole seismologist community.)

To prevent this for my life, I decided to stop public predictions. In my freetime I go on with it as a hobby, but I dont want to make it in a larger extent and never again public.

I'd advise you to go on with this blog, but dont try to go public with it. You saw what GeoNet thinks. Keep it just for you, your friends and fans, until you find the holy grail. It is better for you.

Maybe something else about me:
I stopped public earthquake prediction in January. I got a Burn Out by the competitive pressure I made myself (and that just by my 1000 readers a day. Dn't try to imagine what would happened, if I would have done it for USGS). I was very close to the way to predict place and time. Had a perfect prediction (Place+Time) with Algerian quake in December, which also damaged a couple of houses + injured some people. This leaded me to new theorys, where I worked on in the next weeks. But ALG was the only perfect one I had so far. So I stopped it for my health and for my future (Want to work as an seismologist in near future and I guess earthquake prediction will not be a good to achieve it).
I know it is possible and you know it is possible, but now I know, that it is impossible to become happy with it. Maybe, seismology society does not want to have an "earthquake predictor", because they all would get useless than. (What would doctors say, if there is a drug to cure every diseases?)
Seismology will be an endless research.

Sorry for the long text, but I don't want you to make a big mistake. Think about it.

AMIT said...

Juski
Thanks again for your guidance. few things to note
1) I am working on this since 1993,after the Latur (Maharashtra,India ) quake on 30th September.
2)I have been humiliated several times,some times with foul language
3) It is almost 20 years,and I have crossed the threshold ,and may not give up
4) All I know,is if,Date (with window period) and magnitude (+ or -0.3),can be predicted,it necessarily means,quakes follow some rule. And this is enough for me to hang on.
5) I wonder,if seismology believes,the quakes can not be predicted,why the hell we are spending tax payers money in billion dollars?
ALL THAT,I WISH IS TO WATCH THE DATES FOR QUAKES PREDICTED FOR MORE THAN 6.5 OR 7.0. THERE COULD SOME 10 TO 12 SUCH DATES IN A YEAR.

OR
WE SHOULD STOP ALL SEISMOLOGY DEPARTMENT AND WORK ON RETROFITTING
THE HOUSES. INSTEAD SPEND ALL MONEY ON MAKING HOUSES QUAKE PROOF
Thanks
Amit

Juski said...

God to hear. Do you want to continue my work too? Maybe both methods together will show this rule.

AMIT said...

juski
you can forward you work outline to me at my mail address
amitjdave@yahoo.com
Amit

Anonymous said...

Had you predicted todays Earthquake in Iran-Pak Border measuring 7.8 ?

Anonymous said...

Hi all,

As said before, watch for sunspots on the eastern limb.

AR1178 AND AR1179 were Beta-Gamma spots and are on the eastern limb.

AR1721 AND AR1722 are both shortly to be on the eastern limb, they are not Beta-Gamma spots but still are to be watched.

AR1723 is Beta-Gamma and is shortly to be centered on the sun.

I mentioned them AR1178 AND AR1179 the other day and said they would be trouble but the post wasnt posted.

be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi all

2 giant Coronal holes shortly to start influencing the earth , sunspot AR1726 wasnt visible on Friday, but come Saturday was massive, also this is true with AR1727 which is on the western limb.

If Amit wasnt busy, he could have posted the info i sent concerning the recent large quakes and sunspot count etc.

Them Suspots groups are now over the eastern limb so be aware"

Be safe

Jazzman :)

Anonymous said...

Hi all

AR1726 is now entering the danger zone on the eastern limb, be aware !


17:10GMT 23/04/2013
Be safe

Jazzman :)

AMIT said...

hi
Tomorrows(25th April 2013) lunar eclipse and 28th Moon position (closest to earth,maximum declination and opposing Jupiter)are two potent dates for 6.5+ earthquake
place not known
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
Here are two hypothesis I would like to propose

1) Flash floods, cyclones and earthquakes are interrelated.
look at to days (24th April) quake at Afghanistan and flash floods. Time and again i have noticed this
2) whenever,the Jupiter reaches maximum declination either north or south, frequency of major quakes increases.
This year ie oct 2012 and again now April 2013 we have Jupiter at maximum declination and hence more quakes ( considering other factors also)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.2 earthquake at karmadic island on 26 early morning(UTC) ,as predicted
Amit