Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Saturday, May 03, 2014

Earthquake Prediction for May 2014

hi
 Following dates are prone to the earthquake /volcanic eruption

1)10th May 2014...................6.4

2)15th ..................................6.8

3)19th...................................6.3

4) 24th................................6.5

5)29th...................................6.6

window period + or - one day

magnitude window + or -0.3

Amit

20 comments:

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 6.1 quake at Mexico on 10th at 7.36 UTC, as against predicted date 10th May ,6.4
watch the accuracy -a date hit prediction
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
watch two quakes in NZ on the predicted date ie in + or - one day window period
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Here are your April and May (so far) predictions and the associated
mag 6+ quakes.

2014-04-01T23:46:47.240Z,-19.6097,-70.7765,25,8.2
2014-04-01T23:57:56.090Z,-19.9155,-70.9779,11.14,6.9
2014-04-02T16:13:26.770Z,7.9482,-82.3405,25,6
2014-04-03T01:58:31.440Z,-20.268,-70.5558,22.83,6.5
2014-04-03T02:43:14.770Z,-20.518,-70.4979,31.09,7.7
2014-04-03T05:26:15.710Z,-20.7939,-70.5918,25,6.3
2014-04-04T01:37:49.920Z,-20.6265,-70.6568,9.83,6.2
2014-04-04T11:40:32.000Z,-10.5365,161.7027,57,6 <--
2014-04-05 | HIT
2014-04-06 <--
2004-04-07
2014-04-08
2014-04-09
2014-04-10T23:27:45.920Z,12.4475,-86.3709,13,6.1
2014-04-11T00:01:45.100Z,-20.6601,-70.659,13.13,6
2014-04-11T07:07:21.980Z,-6.6249,155.0639,50,7.1.
2014-04-11T08:16:48.410Z,-6.8554,155.0165,39.42,6.5
2014-04-11T20:29:13.100Z,11.5913,-86.04,135,6.6
2014-04-12T05:24:25.560Z,-7.1163,155.2356,35,6.1
2014-04-12T20:14:39.620Z,-11.3149,162.2114,29.31,7.6
2014-04-13T12:36:18.710Z,-11.451,162.0692,35,7.4 <--
2014-04-13T13:25:03.470Z,-11.1298,162.0375,35,6.6 | HIT
2014-04-14 <--
2014-04-15T03:57:02.150Z,-53.5271,8.7041,11.74,6.9
2014-04-16
2014-04-17T15:06:51.900Z,-62.8747,155.6826,23.71,6.2
2014-04-18T04:13:12.220Z,-11.155,164.8065,9.97,6
2014-04-18T14:27:26.610Z,17.5519,-100.8159,24,7.2
2014-04-19T01:04:03.270Z,-6.6787,155.0854,24.4,6.6
2014-04-19T13:27:59.500Z,-6.7203,154.9315,30.87,7.5
2014-04-20T00:15:58.100Z,-7.1646,155.3351,20,6.2 <--
2014-04-21 | HIT
2014-04-22 <--
2014-04-23 <--
2014-04-24T03:10:12.880Z,49.8459,-127.444,11.4,6.6 | HIT
2014-04-25 <--
2014-04-26T06:02:20.420Z,-20.7142,-174.7236,39.37,6.2
2014-04-27
2014-04-28
2014-04-29
2014-04-30
2014-05-01T06:36:35.340Z,-21.5018,170.3522,105.33,6.6
2014-05-02T08:43:37.540Z,-3.8009,127.4352,54.18,6
2014-05-03
2014-05-04T09:15:53.070Z,-24.6421,179.0836,527.62,6.6
2014-05-04T09:25:14.520Z,-25.7976,178.2078,610.63,6.1
2014-05-04T20:18:24.790Z,34.8621,139.3117,155.07,6
2014-05-05T11:08:43.880Z,19.7026,99.6826,7.36,6
2014-05-06T20:52:26.540Z,-36.3905,-96.8083,9.94,6.1
2014-05-07T04:20:33.690Z,-6.9499,154.8797,1,6.1
2014-05-08T17:00:17.260Z,17.3847,-100.6563,23.95,6.4
2014-05-09 <--
2014-05-10T07:36:01.470Z,17.2304,-100.788,23,6 | HIT
2014-05-11 <--


It looks like you are doing well with 5 predictions, all hits.
But look, out of 41 days (14 windows) only 2 had no quakes.

So you're only slightly better than chance for this period.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
pl note a quake of 6.1 on 14th May at 20.56 UTC, at Micronesia (6.5 N , 145 degrees East), as against actual prediction on 15th
I am expecting one more quake (6.3 to 6.6 ) till 16th May (UTC time)
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
watch one more 6.8 on 15th exactly as predicted..Already told I was expecting one more 6.5+
Any doubts.
All predictions of last couple of months are hit.This was confirmed by Roger.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What about all the quakes you missed?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) Putting first thing first
April hit quakes are on dates
5,6,7,13,13,14,15,19,19,20,21,22,23
and for May, as I could not post the dates till 3rd (due to office work load), I have to skip the dates from 1st to 5th May 2014
Now ,you can see how many hits.
2) I do not think you have any method (proved statistically),to measure this aspect of prediction
3) For may also the hits are on 9,10,11,14,15
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No, I meant the quakes that were not in your windows. Why weren't they predicted?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
6.2 quake in northan Sumatra on 18th (UTC).Watvh the accuracy of date and magn. Window.
Roger what are the odds of getting 6+
more than 5 consicutive hits in + or - one day window
Amit
Ro

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

For the period April 1 to May 18 there are 15 possible windows and 13 of them have 6+ quakes so the odds on a hit are 13/15=0.867

Getting 6 hits in 6 tries is only slightly better than chance, nothing to get excited about.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1)Odds are to be calculated on USGS data of more than 50 years
2)I have also stated that tthe couple of month may witness more quakes
3)How am I to know more seismicity in this month
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I miscounted. You had 7 predictions and two of them were wrong.

Oddly enough, 5 out of 7 is better than 6 out of 6 but not enough better to matter.

Odds have to fit the data. I'm starting to think it should be figured month by month to keep up with changes in seismicity.

A long term average is only good for stable seismicity rates, which we don't have.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I sometimes wonder,why there is no set guide lines devised by USGS, as far as the earthquake prediction evaluation is concerned.
When I inquired with USGS, they informed me that, USGS do not carry out any such evaluations.
Questions are
1) Is any other Govt body say European Earthquake center issued any guide lines for such evaluations
2)What method you have adopted has been approved by any such Govt Institute/
or
All institutes in general and USGS in particular strongly believe that, no one can predict the quake and it is not necessary to devise any standard guidelines to evaluate the predictions
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> I sometimes wonder,why there is no set guide lines devised by USGS, as far as the earthquake prediction evaluation is concerned.

There is no need for one. The general opinion is that it's impossible to predict them.

> When I inquired with USGS, they informed me that, USGS do not carry out any such evaluations.

They did at one time and I was the one doing it. The project was stopped after 2 years because no one succeeded.

> Questions are
1) Is any other Govt body say European Earthquake center issued any guide lines for such evaluations

Not to my knowledge.

> 2)What method you have adopted has been approved by any such Govt Institute/
or
All institutes in general and USGS in particular strongly believe that, no one can predict the quake and it is not necessary to devise any standard guidelines to evaluate the predictions

There is no general policy and no one with the authority to establish one.

I do it as a hobby and to try to keep pseudo-scientists from getting undue attention and credit.

But in the unlikely event that someone comes up with a workable method I would support them with my results.

Couldn't hurt.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I wonder, if quakes can not be predicted,why on earth we are spending millions of dollars,on quake research, fault line study, hazard zone mapping.
All that is required is
1) map country once
2) put some seismometer
and spend all money in retrofitting the buildings and structures
Since ,you have worked with USGS, any idea ,how much money is spent per year for earthquake and fault research .
If we are so sure that all research are futile ,why are we doing it ?
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No, I don't have any budget figures.

1) and 2) have been done.

The government can't spend money on retrofitting private property and private property owners are unwilling to spend money on something that might not happen.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
pl note 6.9 quake at Greece and my prediction of 24th ,6.5 mag
one more 6.5 range quake predicted date hit.
How many times and how long people will say these are all fluke or just by chance
wake up USGS
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Your Apr-May score is now 8 hits out of 8 predictions.

Since the 20 three day periods had only 15 with quakes, the odds on a hit are 0.75 so the chances of getting 8 out of 8 is only 10%

That's better than chance but my test requirement is 1%

You still have a way to go.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I added April quakes and predictions to see how that affects your results.

There are 29 3 day periods since May hasn't ended.

24 of the 29 contained one or more mag 6+ quakes so the odds are 0.828 on getting a hit.

You got 11 hits out of 13 predictions and the odds on that are .607 so you're again just slightly above chance.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I've been doing this "by hand" but it's time consuming so I wrote a program to do it.

Now I can look at any desired segment of your predictions as long as the files are up to date.

Overall, you're below chance.

Roger