Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, October 05, 2014

My Earthquake prediction results compared with Roger's random dates for September 2014

Roger
 Here are the results of my September results as against your 30 random dates

Total 6+ quakes...5
My results.. 3 hits out of 4

results of 30 random dates are as follows

1 hit.........6
2 hits........12
3 hits........10
4  hits.......2
...............
total........30

Now 10 +2 = 14 are better than my results out of 30. ie not even 50%
 If my predictions are below odds ,at least 75% or more should be better than my dates
Amit

12 comments:

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The most common number of hits in my random series was 3.

You got 3 as well.

Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
The most common here is 2 hits and not three
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ooops!

I had quakes on 3,6,9,17 and 24

Now it says 4,6,10,17,24,25 and 25

I'll recount.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The odds on getting a hit with a mag 6+ quake in a 3 day window are 0.573 so 2 hits are expected.

However, the odd on getting 3 hits in 4 tries are only slightly better than chance.

Small samples are deceptive.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

What makes you think 75% should do better than you by chance?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
when you say ,anybody can beat my predictions,in fact it should be more than 80% of random dates
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Why?

Any result is possible by chance. It's just that some are less likely than others.

You got 3/4 but 3 of mine got 4/4 by chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
When you say ,"anybody can beat you,"it has to be more than 80%
You may have to modify the statement
like this
"some may do better than you ,by chance"
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No it doesn't. "Anybody" doesn't mean "everybody" or even a "majority" of others.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
It appears to me you are saying

"head you win, tail I Loose"

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
October 2014 evaluation is not seen done by you
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Posted under your October predictions.

Roger