Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Earthquake prediction for October 2014

hi
here are the probable dates for the month os October 2014

only three dates are predicted for this month
1)7th October 20147............6.6

2)22nd  October 2014.........6.5

3) 28th October 2014...........6.4

Time window is + or - one day

Magnitude window is + or - 0.3 ( however this should not be disqualifying criteria ,as long as the quake in window period is 6+)

Amit

13 comments:

AMIT said...

There are two quakes on first predicted date
1) China ...6.1 (as per esmc)(on 7th )
2) Eldorado Mexico..6.2 (on 8th )

pl watch the accuracy

Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Since I have given three dates this month (october), last random dates from your october random dates will not be considered( so as to remain at par)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok

So far your 7th prediction was correct and 14 of my random predictions got it too.

But you missed the 10th while 16 of mine got it too.

Roger

AMIT said...

hi
Here , I will give the date ,time and locations (two straight lines on the globe)

Date....23rd October 2014
time ...00.45 UTC
locations (these are probable locations and these are my views only.May not be correct. This is no official announcement to act or to panic)

1) A line from 30 degree south and 175 degree East to 20 degree North and 120 degree East

2) A line from 80 degree west and
20 degree south to 40 degree North and 15 degree East
(THESE ARE MY VIEWS )
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
pl watch 6.1 quake at Tonga at 3.15 UTC today.please watch the prediction accuracy
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The October test gives you two hits.

My random predictions score 1 with no hits, 14 with one hit and 15 with 2 hits

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I do not know why your results and my physical check do not match
This time October results following things are physically checked
1) i have given 3 dates where as you have given 4 dates
2) My dates are 7,22 and 28th.Hence with window period the dates are
6,7,8
21,22,23
27,28,29th oct
3) The 6+ quakes were on 8,9,11,14 and 28th
4)Thus window date are from 7th to 15th and 27,28,29
5)My hits are 2 out of 3 dates
6) Your odd dates are 4 and the results are as follows
Nil hit....7
1 hit.....16
2 hitS.....7
3 hits......nil
4 Hits.....nil
Results are 7 out of 30 odd dates are equal to my hits
For below 75%
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

You predicted 7, 22 and 28, quakes were 7, 8, 9, 11, 14, and 28.

You hit 7 and 28 so 2/3

We agreed my 4th predictions would not be used so I got 1 miss, 14 with 1 hit and 15 with 2 hits, none with 3 hits.

Count again. I'm doing it on paper so I don't miss any.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) Yes. The fourth date were not to be considered, But out of all your 30 dates (fourth), none is a hit. So it is practically irrelevant
2) If I am to give your zero hit dates for the month of October ,they are 7 in numbers. I f you want me to be specific they are at serial numbers
1st,9th,16th,,20th,21st,23rd and 25th
3)If you want me to specify all other hits ,they are
1 hit.....16
2nd hit...7
3 hits...,nil
So, two hits are only 7 out of 30 ie less than 25%
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Are we looking at the same lists?

Prediction #1 was 2,14,18 so 14 is a hit.

#9 is 10,14 and 18 so 2 hits

#16 is10, 14, 18 so 1 hit.

The only zero hit was #21

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
Yes. We are looking at the same page.
I have cross checked again. One mistake found ie for the first one.
1st....2,14,18....1 hit
9th...6,18,22...nil.( you are mentioning is 10th and not 9th)

16th is.. 2,6,18 ...nil (10,14 18 is for 6th ,10th and 12th )

Thus zero is for 9th,16th,20th.21st,23rd, and 25th
Thus final score is

0 hit...6
1 hit..17
2 hit...7
3 hit...0

Amit

AMIT said...



Roger
pl note 4th date is 2,6,10 which does not match
besides 15th date is not matching
one more think ,the quake on 7th October was 6.0 hence can not be counted as 6+ hit so date 6th is not a hit

so many discrepancies

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

After much cross checking I found that my condensed list has one error. The problem is that the monthly list is out of order compared to the group list.

Line 24 says 14*, 18, 22 and should say 2, 6*, 10* so the count is 13 with one hit, 17 with 2 hits

6+ means 6 or more.

Roger