Can earthquakes be predicted?

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Sunday, December 07, 2014

Earthquake Prediction for the month of December 2014

hi

 I am sorry for not posting the probable earthquake dates for the month of December 2014.
Yesterday, my wife has been given discharge from the hospital after surgery.
 Any way,we have one quake of 6.8 ,at PNG today ie 7th at 01.22 UTC,(pl check it is just after Full Moon.
 Any way the probable dates are

1) 13th  December 2014........6.4

2)20th..................................6.8

3)23rd..............................6.6

4)29th..............................6.4

window period  + or - one day

magnitude window...+ or -  0.3


If I specify the time also ( this is purely for academic purpose and my evaluation should be done on above criteria...for Roger)

1) 12th....at 00.30 UTC
2)19th ....08.30 UTC
3) 22nd...01.36 UTC
4) 24th....16.45 UTC
5)  28th ...18.30 UTC
 These are five dates with + or - 6 Hrs time window

Amit

29 comments:

AMIT said...

In fact ,if I give five dates with + or -6 Hrs window period,it is less than four dates with + or - one dat window

1)4 dates ....with + or - one day gives
288 Hts window

and

2) 5 dates with +or - 6 Hrs requires only 60 Hrs of window period
or
if we take + or- 12 Hrs widow, five dates will give 120 Hrs window period only
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Small windows mean it will be less likely to get a hit so hits will count more and misses will hurt less.

You can't change midstream but we can start over if you wish?

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
As mentioned ,no need to switch over.
These dates and time are posted just for academic interest..These are the dates and time which I am observing and recorfed in my personal diary.
Only one thing with held from posting is location
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Ok, no changes.

So far there have been 3 quakes this month in the 8.1+ range and 28 of my random groups got 1 or more of them.

Looks like another bad month for you.

Hope your wife is doing well.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) I could not post the dates before first quake.so no question of loosing
2) The quakes are in the window period of full moon(as per my theory).so infact it is a plus point for me
3)My predictions were not below average.
4)My wife is recovering ,but will take some time
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

> 1) I could not post the dates before first quake.so no question of loosing

Unfortunate but no credit for unpredicted dates.

> 2) The quakes are in the window period of full moon(as per my theory).so infact it is a plus point for me

Nope, doesn't count.

> 3)My predictions were not below average.

But mine were better.

> 4)My wife is recovering ,but will take some time

To be expected. The body doesn't like drs messing around inside!

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

So far this month I have 58 hits out of 120 dates.

There were 4 quakes so far and you missed the only one close to your first date.

Chance Amit, Just chance.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
wait.
58 out of 120 ( your random dates) are below 50%. ie below the average of tossing a coin
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
Volcano erupted today(ie 19th Dec)at eastern indonesia.pl note date and time of prediction
(19th at 8.30 UTC)
It can be seen here that earthquakes and eruptions are interlinked and on predicted dates any one can occur. (As both occur due to same cause)
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Just a progress report, pointing out that you're behind at this point.

Volcanoes and quakes have different causes except for the small harmonic tremors at the volcano itself.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
My theory does not differntiate quakes and eruption.Both occur due to built up
tidal pull inside the earth crust.
Roger, openion of science changes from time to time.
Yesterday ,I came accross an article in Times of India news paper,which says
there is more water inside the esrth than in oceans and oceans are suppiles this water through plate boundries!!!!!
What is your openion?
Amit

AMIT said...

Hi
6.6 quake in Indonesia, today ie 21st Dec 2014..A hit prediction ,both date and magnitude window.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

Yes, there's a lot of water down there but it's chemically bound in the minerals, not liquid.

The quake today is a hit for you and also for some of my random dates too.

Currently I have 70 hits (58%) while you have 1 hit (25%)

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

I just recently checked on the odds of getting a 6.1+ quake in a 3 day window.

It's slightly less than 50%

So to show your theory is valid you have to do a LOT better than that.

Roger

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

In 6 months with 4 predictions per month you would make 24 predictions.

However, one month has only 3 predictions so you'll end up with 23 total.

With odds of 0.548 on a hit, you'd need 20 hits to satisfy my 99$ test level.

You've already lost the test.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
If odds are less than 50%, why51% is not above odds?
Amit

AMIT said...

Roger
Here is brief review of my prediction for 6.1 and above quakes between September and December 22nd

1) September...2 hits out of 4
2)October.....1 hit out of 3
3) November...3 hits out of 4
4) December..1 hit out of 2.. till 22nd
Thus,7 hits out of 13
so, above 50%

Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

All results are possible by chance but some are more likely than others.

You could get all correct or none correct - by chance - but those are very unlikely.

I require 99% better than chance for success at which point I will agree that your idea has merit.

51% is way too easy to get by chance to be considered significant.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
1) What do you mean by-99% better than chance?Does that mean 9 dates hit out of ten ? Or if the odds are 60%,
it is 90% of 60%?
2) If it is 9 out of 10,it means you do not take in to account odds itself?
3)Further,if it is 9 out of 10, what do you think accuracy of whether forecast? In terms of date,time,location and exact inches (mm)of rain?
Do we call whether forecast science or by chance the rains are mordarate ,heavy or very heavy?

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

There is no easy answer to your question.

It depends on the probability of a hit.

In your case, the odds on a hit with a 6.1+ quake in a 3 day window are .548 so it takes a lot of hits to reach 99% level whereas for 8+ quakes just a few hits would be sufficient.

Go to VassarStats website and play with the z-binomial app. You'll be able to see how it works.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
My question is
When whether forecast can not give 99% accuracy in terms of predicting all three parameter is date,time,location and amont of rainfall why do we call it science and why do we put in millions of dollars of tax payers money in it?
Amit

AMIT said...

Further,
Let us take an example
Mumbai city receives 2300 mm of average rain fall between June to Sept every year.ie 120 days and 2300 mm rains.It almost rain daily during these period. Then,what the whether bureau is predicting?
Whether buraeau was un aware when
on 26th July 2005 it rained 945 mm in 24 hrs?!!!! and that 450 mm rain in just 3 hrs?
Why we should belive whether buraeu's repot of mordarate ,heavy or very heavy rain?
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
pl note 6.1 quake at Philippines today ie 29th December 2014.pl note the date and magnitude accuracy of my prediction
Are these all ,by chance or fluke or just out of the hat?
Need to think over with open and receiving mind.
If we have already determined that,the only possible theory is plate tectonics and further,if we strongly believe that the quakes can not be predicted,nothing can be done.
In that case, we need to stop all research on Earthquakes and stop spending tax payers money unnecessarily.
Only thing ,required will be to know fault line and to retrofit buildings
Amit

AMIT said...

hi
One more hypothesis is can be given is like this

If the quake is more than 6 ,the place ie location could be depending on
1) Moon's location (+ or - 20 degrees)
2) Moon's location + 180 degrees (+ or -20 degrees)
However this depends on the stronger trigger at that time
Generally it is Sun or Moon
In some cases it could be Jupiter, Venus or Mars ,if they are at perigee and at Maximum declination on that day
To days (6.1 -Philippines quake corresponds to Moon
This hypothesis, is under trial and I have seen it working in more than 75% major quakes
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

The quake today was a hit for you but I got some too.

The month ends with you getting 2 hits out of 4 predictions while I got 70 out of 120.

My chance beat your chance again.

Roger

AMIT said...

Roger
I have 8 hits out of 14.so 57.2%.
After completing six months I will physically check all your dates and will
post your results also.
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

As of now you have 8/15 = .533

I have 306/450 = .680

Roger

AMIT said...

Hi
One more quake,6.1, at Fiji on 30th ie my window period.
Two quakes in window period
Amit

Roger Hunter said...

Amit;

No extra credit for multiple hits unless you predict how many.

Roger